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nathan mirvold is one of those rare

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individuals who it's difficult to

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overstate the accomplishments of here is

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just a small sample of a list of fields

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that he's made extensive contributions

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to

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it's by no means exhaustive nuclear

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power that is

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the inventing of new reactor types one

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that can use

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uranium-238 and spent rods of other

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nuclear reactors he also in his early

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days founded microsoft research

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which back then startup software

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companies didn't have a research

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component to them

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this trend of apple research and google

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research

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they're just adam brations of his

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original creation

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he founded a company based solely on

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inventing he thought well there is no

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modern-day equivalent of edison people

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just invent in their own specialized

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field why not have a company of a team

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of people like edison

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he also invented new methods of modes of

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delivery of treatments for malaria and

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other infectious diseases under the bill

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gates foundation he also came up with

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geo-engineering solutions to the problem

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of global warming

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we were scheduled to talk for just under

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an hour but it went far over two hours

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and i didn't even get to half the

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questions that i had written down

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enjoy this wide-ranging conversation

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with

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nathan muirvold okay so why am i

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interested in you

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i've been following you for

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12 years

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when i was an undergrad i remember

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hearing about your book on modernist

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cuisine and being fascinated and doing

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plenty of research into you and thinking

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that

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there are few people very few people in

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my life that i wish were my uncle

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that i can persistently and bothersomely

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ask questions too

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and and so for years and years i've had

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this fascination with you every once in

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a while i'd check in on you

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and i admire you you probably get this a

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lot but i admire you i look up to you

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there are very few people i say that

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about and so even with this podcast

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i don't give people introductions

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because i like to just get right into

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the meat of it but for you

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i have to tell the audience about my

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journey with you and some of your

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accolades

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so if you don't mind can i just get rid

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i'll try not to roll my eyes yeah yeah

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i'm just gonna read some of this so this

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this podcast is about theories of

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everything and

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it's also about publicizing some

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intellectuals that i don't think get as

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much credit

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as they deserve now obviously you're

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extremely successful

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but i was watching your ted talk which i

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think is superior

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to the majority of ted talks that i see

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and it

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many ted talks have tens of millions of

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views sometimes but yet yours only has

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two hundred thousand

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okay so if i can help that in any way

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i would love to with this minor podcast

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of mine

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it doesn't seem like you need my help

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you're effectively a billionaire and you

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have

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many scholarly accolades nathan mirvold

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is someone who has

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a variety of interests and

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it just astounds me i don't know of

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anyone else who has the same amount so i

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decided why don't i just start

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to list them and i don't think this is

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exhaustive in the least i asked your

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team

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and even they couldn't come up with all

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of them is there a list online well

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anyway here's some so

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dinosaur slash paleontologists you like

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dinosaurs you love looking into paleo

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you like

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even digging okay great asteroids you

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have an interest

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in scanning the skies and analyzing the

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data of nasa

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yup nuclear power okay eradicating

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malaria

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meta materials quantum gravity in your

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former days

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software obviously microsoft food

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modernist cuisine penguins okay i

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thought it was just penguins apparently

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it's more but i forgot what your team

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told me

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all kinds of birds and animals hungry

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animals great great great

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um well i do a lot of photography

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right um so photography of

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almost all of the things that you

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mentioned photography of

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stars and meteors and asteroids

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photography

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of landscapes in the natural world uh

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photography of food

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uh for the cookbooks so that's another

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one

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um uh you know

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more generally math and

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uh technology fascinate me science

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so i think of you as a convivial and

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quirky version of elon musk

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a lesser known convivial and quirky elon

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musk and i've

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never had the fascination with elon

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mainly because of perhaps personality

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differences i'm more on the

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theoretical end that's my my background

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is in physics

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and he's much more practical you seem to

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have

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both no for me like

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i'm more comfortable with qft than i am

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with bernoulli's equation like i for

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some reason

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practical in in the engineering side is

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it's difficult for me to apprehend

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nathan first of all how do you spend

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your days

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like what does your average day look

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like if there's an average day how much

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sleep do you get

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what is the structure well you know

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i don't think there's any single typical

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day

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um many of the things that i

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do involve you know

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very different activities uh today i had

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some of the last meetings that

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we'll have on um our pizza book

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i just wrote a book called modernist

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pizza yeah which is aiming to be the

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definitive book on pizza

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uh and so we had a few meetings to wrap

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that up today and not probably a few

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more but

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it's we're getting down to the short

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strokes we're almost done

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um i had my picture taken for the book

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um because you know it's

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kind of goes to the territory i did a

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bunch of work

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on astro photography

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um in december there was a really big

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uh meteor shower a shower called the

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geminids

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my

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experience every time i

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remember to look to see about going to

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see them

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what happens is there's it's cloudy

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or well the moon is up when the moon is

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up you can't see as many of them

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um well this year or i guess last year

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the very end of 2020

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everything came together and i took some

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great pictures of the

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geminids and now we have to process them

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um and the way i do photography

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these days is very computationally

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intensive

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right so in the case of these meteors

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uh i took about two and a half thousand

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pictures

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per camera times four bit cameras so

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it's about ten thousand pictures

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over the course of one night while these

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cameras tracked

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a part of the sky and then

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because you're tracking the sky the

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stars are all nice little dots and those

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look really nice

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uh well there's all kinds of processing

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that we have to do

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to get uh

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a usable picture out of all that stuff

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um i mean so far the pictures

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and then all of the temporary files that

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you create as you

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because sometimes you have to put it in

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different formats for different pieces

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of software

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20 terabytes for one night what will be

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one image

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ah uh-huh wow okay i'm very anxious to

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see how that turned out

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uh so how much sleep do you get on an

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average day

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um you know i've been through periods

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where uh i'm traveling

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or we're working on some big deadline

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for something where i get very little

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but usually i get

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enough sleep i get eight nine hours of

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sleep

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the reason i'm asking is that i see you

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as someone who's extremely productive

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and when i speak to intellectuals i find

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that they generally are regimented

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that they eat a certain type of food at

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a certain time of day

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or they don't eat a certain type of food

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at a certain time of day or they

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meditate

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or they take a certain nootropic

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and i'm curious what is it that you do

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such that you can accomplish all that

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it's different each day well it is

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different each day so

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you know this today was a mix of

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different things

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um in

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i guess the end of february early march

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i'm gonna go to missouri i i built

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a special camera outfit which looks

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pretty ridiculous

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it lashes three cameras together each

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one of the giant lens

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um and i did it so i could photograph

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two things

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one is big storm waves

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so i want to take some super high

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quality panoramas

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of ocean waves uh and also

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um huge flocks of birds

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well in missouri they don't have any

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storm waves but they do have

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uh migrating uh geese so about two

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million

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of them are due the end of february so

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when i go

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there i'll probably be there for three

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four days maybe a little bit longer

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and that'll all be about that and i'll

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um i went to see some other migrating

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birds in december

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or late i got late november actually

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late november um

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and that was about getting up at four

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every day

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um so that you could actually be out

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where the birds are well before the sun

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comes up

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because that's like that's the whole

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thing

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um with the uh

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the meteors uh the meteor shower

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uh besides all of this technical

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equipment that i brought

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i also bring a lawn chair because

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you want to sit outside and see them and

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it's

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good enough to see

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all of them you see you want to get a

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camera catches more

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but a camera catches it from a narrow

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thing whereas if you're out there you

288
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see them across the whole sky which is

289
00:10:57,350 --> 00:10:54,880
is quite remarkable so anyway different

290
00:10:58,790 --> 00:10:57,360
projects will require you to jump in

291
00:11:01,670 --> 00:10:58,800
with both feet

292
00:11:03,350 --> 00:11:01,680
and be a hundred percent on that project

293
00:11:05,110 --> 00:11:03,360
but most of the time

294
00:11:08,230 --> 00:11:05,120
not and so that's what allows me to

295
00:11:10,310 --> 00:11:08,240
multitask between projects

296
00:11:11,750 --> 00:11:10,320
how do you choose what project are you

297
00:11:14,150 --> 00:11:11,760
just driven by your

298
00:11:16,150 --> 00:11:14,160
intuition your feelings your desires or

299
00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:16,160
is there some grander plan

300
00:11:25,590 --> 00:11:23,030
it's of course there's intuition

301
00:11:26,829 --> 00:11:25,600
and feelings and if i don't want to do

302
00:11:30,630 --> 00:11:26,839
it i'm not going to go do

303
00:11:34,790 --> 00:11:30,640
it and i would hope that my

304
00:11:37,910 --> 00:11:34,800
it's not just my raw passion

305
00:11:41,509 --> 00:11:37,920
uh a lot of the things that i do

306
00:11:44,949 --> 00:11:41,519
are technically difficult to do

307
00:11:47,750 --> 00:11:44,959
so far they haven't been impossible

308
00:11:49,430 --> 00:11:47,760
now i'd hate to pick an impossible one

309
00:11:51,829 --> 00:11:49,440
and get passionate about it

310
00:11:52,870 --> 00:11:51,839
because then you'd waste a lot of time

311
00:11:54,629 --> 00:11:52,880
right

312
00:11:56,310 --> 00:11:54,639
is there something that you found to be

313
00:11:57,590 --> 00:11:56,320
outside of your domain of competence or

314
00:11:59,910 --> 00:11:57,600
outside of what you can do

315
00:12:01,350 --> 00:11:59,920
of course there's i mean problems like

316
00:12:04,389 --> 00:12:01,360
nuclear power

317
00:12:05,910 --> 00:12:04,399
um or there i was one of the inventors

318
00:12:08,470 --> 00:12:05,920
of this new type of a

319
00:12:09,269 --> 00:12:08,480
nuclear power plant i started the

320
00:12:12,949 --> 00:12:09,279
company

321
00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:12,959
moment it's

322
00:12:17,590 --> 00:12:16,000
uh was recently chosen by the

323
00:12:20,230 --> 00:12:17,600
us government to build some test

324
00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:20,240
reactors

325
00:12:26,870 --> 00:12:24,000
but i don't this is not

326
00:12:28,310 --> 00:12:26,880
a one man or even one company thing

327
00:12:30,710 --> 00:12:28,320
nuclear power

328
00:12:32,389 --> 00:12:30,720
intrinsically also involves the decision

329
00:12:34,470 --> 00:12:32,399
society makes

330
00:12:36,550 --> 00:12:34,480
um of course one of the reasons we've

331
00:12:39,269 --> 00:12:36,560
done it is because we want to have a new

332
00:12:42,949 --> 00:12:39,279
type of carbon free

333
00:12:45,990 --> 00:12:42,959
ener source of energy because of our

334
00:12:49,350 --> 00:12:46,000
impending climate crisis

335
00:12:53,590 --> 00:12:49,360
which is a crisis for everybody

336
00:12:57,670 --> 00:12:53,600
um and uh it

337
00:13:00,150 --> 00:12:57,680
there's a bunch of things that i i

338
00:13:02,069 --> 00:13:00,160
so yes i'm working on the climate crisis

339
00:13:04,870 --> 00:13:02,079
i've done other things for climate

340
00:13:06,629 --> 00:13:04,880
but it's not like it's up to me okay not

341
00:13:09,750 --> 00:13:06,639
like i have a magic wand

342
00:13:10,550 --> 00:13:09,760
and i can school solve that problem i

343
00:13:14,150 --> 00:13:10,560
can make it

344
00:13:15,750 --> 00:13:14,160
that's when i make a contribution i try

345
00:13:17,430 --> 00:13:15,760
and we'll see what the world does with

346
00:13:21,190 --> 00:13:17,440
it

347
00:13:24,470 --> 00:13:21,200
whereas if i um last year i

348
00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:24,480
uh created a the world's highest

349
00:13:32,310 --> 00:13:28,240
resolution microscope dedicated

350
00:13:35,509 --> 00:13:32,320
to photographing snowflakes

351
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:35,519
i saw that now

352
00:13:38,790 --> 00:13:36,720
there's a lot of things you could ask

353
00:13:41,910 --> 00:13:38,800
like who cares or why

354
00:13:45,189 --> 00:13:41,920
but that's one that was

355
00:13:48,069 --> 00:13:45,199
within the scope of

356
00:13:49,509 --> 00:13:48,079
what i thought was possible for me to do

357
00:13:50,470 --> 00:13:49,519
that turned out to be a lot harder than

358
00:13:54,150 --> 00:13:50,480
i thought it would be

359
00:13:55,910 --> 00:13:54,160
but we got it done that's very different

360
00:13:58,949 --> 00:13:55,920
than a societal problem like

361
00:14:01,030 --> 00:13:58,959
eliminating malaria i've contributed i

362
00:14:01,750 --> 00:14:01,040
think a tremendous amount towards that

363
00:14:04,150 --> 00:14:01,760
fight

364
00:14:05,189 --> 00:14:04,160
but it's a tremendous amount towards a

365
00:14:08,550 --> 00:14:05,199
fight that's

366
00:14:12,710 --> 00:14:08,560
you know this far along against

367
00:14:14,949 --> 00:14:12,720
many miles to go so uh

368
00:14:16,949 --> 00:14:14,959
and i i think it's important to work on

369
00:14:20,069 --> 00:14:16,959
both kinds of things

370
00:14:23,590 --> 00:14:20,079
you know you could say

371
00:14:25,509 --> 00:14:23,600
the climate crisis or malaria is

372
00:14:26,629 --> 00:14:25,519
tilting at windmills or doing things

373
00:14:29,509 --> 00:14:26,639
that are

374
00:14:31,590 --> 00:14:29,519
you know beyond anybody's single persons

375
00:14:34,150 --> 00:14:31,600
ability and it's true they are

376
00:14:35,430 --> 00:14:34,160
i to the degree you find a way to

377
00:14:38,389 --> 00:14:35,440
contribute

378
00:14:40,069 --> 00:14:38,399
i still want to work on them but it's

379
00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:40,079
also nice to

380
00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:43,279
do things like write a book on pizza

381
00:14:50,230 --> 00:14:49,030
i've written a couple other cookbooks so

382
00:14:52,150 --> 00:14:50,240
if you ask the question

383
00:14:53,509 --> 00:14:52,160
is it possible for me to write a book on

384
00:14:56,470 --> 00:14:53,519
pizza the answer is sure

385
00:14:58,310 --> 00:14:56,480
that was not ever a question like will

386
00:15:01,430 --> 00:14:58,320
will he write the book

387
00:15:03,829 --> 00:15:01,440
um now you can the what's that question

388
00:15:05,430 --> 00:15:03,839
is is it a good book is it not a good

389
00:15:06,790 --> 00:15:05,440
book what does the rest of the world

390
00:15:09,990 --> 00:15:06,800
think of it

391
00:15:11,350 --> 00:15:10,000
um we're publishing it uh not only in

392
00:15:12,230 --> 00:15:11,360
english but we will publish it in

393
00:15:15,269 --> 00:15:12,240
italian

394
00:15:19,509 --> 00:15:15,279
what will they think of it right

395
00:15:20,150 --> 00:15:19,519
um so anyway it's of a very different

396
00:15:21,829 --> 00:15:20,160
nature

397
00:15:24,629 --> 00:15:21,839
than something where you don't know if

398
00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:26,389
a lot of people don't know that you did

399
00:15:29,590 --> 00:15:28,399
your postdoc under stephen hawking in

400
00:15:31,749 --> 00:15:29,600
quantum gravity

401
00:15:32,949 --> 00:15:31,759
yeah what was that like how do you

402
00:15:34,710 --> 00:15:32,959
practically speaking how do you

403
00:15:35,910 --> 00:15:34,720
communicate to stephen hawking how does

404
00:15:39,509 --> 00:15:35,920
that process work given

405
00:15:41,590 --> 00:15:39,519
his challenges uh

406
00:15:43,269 --> 00:15:41,600
well back in the day that i was with

407
00:15:44,550 --> 00:15:43,279
stephen he didn't have a voice

408
00:15:46,949 --> 00:15:44,560
synthesizer

409
00:15:48,389 --> 00:15:46,959
you know if you've seen him on more

410
00:15:51,269 --> 00:15:48,399
recent

411
00:15:53,030 --> 00:15:51,279
uh tv specials or something he always

412
00:15:54,470 --> 00:15:53,040
has a voice synthesizer he hadn't he

413
00:15:57,829 --> 00:15:54,480
didn't have that

414
00:15:59,749 --> 00:15:57,839
so he would speak as best he could

415
00:16:01,829 --> 00:15:59,759
which didn't really sound like human

416
00:16:05,509 --> 00:16:01,839
speech at all

417
00:16:08,710 --> 00:16:05,519
um and uh

418
00:16:10,710 --> 00:16:08,720
his it was slower what was it also

419
00:16:14,069 --> 00:16:10,720
slower

420
00:16:17,269 --> 00:16:14,079
well it was we'd have to it was slow

421
00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:17,279
it was very very hard to understand and

422
00:16:21,110 --> 00:16:17,600
so

423
00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:21,120
understanding it was partially about

424
00:16:28,550 --> 00:16:25,040
listening and partially about guessing

425
00:16:30,389 --> 00:16:28,560
and the part that was really um

426
00:16:32,550 --> 00:16:30,399
unfortunate about that is he loved to

427
00:16:34,629 --> 00:16:32,560
tell jokes

428
00:16:35,590 --> 00:16:34,639
well it turns out the punchline of a

429
00:16:39,030 --> 00:16:35,600
joke by

430
00:16:39,350 --> 00:16:39,040
definition isn't expected right right

431
00:16:41,910 --> 00:16:39,360
right

432
00:16:43,110 --> 00:16:41,920
you can't guess ahead beat the punchline

433
00:16:45,110 --> 00:16:43,120
four and five

434
00:16:46,870 --> 00:16:45,120
and look at the tension is growing with

435
00:16:50,389 --> 00:16:46,880
everyone like oh my god why don't we

436
00:16:53,749 --> 00:16:50,399
get we get this um so the thing about

437
00:16:56,629 --> 00:16:53,759
working with stephen is uh it's very

438
00:16:59,509 --> 00:16:56,639
hard to feel sorry for yourself

439
00:17:01,350 --> 00:16:59,519
if you're working with stephen you know

440
00:17:04,789 --> 00:17:01,360
you might get up and you think oh

441
00:17:07,110 --> 00:17:04,799
god am i feeling that great and oh it's

442
00:17:09,110 --> 00:17:07,120
cold outside and i forgot

443
00:17:10,549 --> 00:17:09,120
you know this and that and the other

444
00:17:14,710 --> 00:17:10,559
thing and i'm

445
00:17:17,189 --> 00:17:14,720
oh my god my life sucks and then

446
00:17:19,510 --> 00:17:17,199
you have stephen there who has these

447
00:17:22,789 --> 00:17:19,520
incredible physical challenges

448
00:17:26,470 --> 00:17:22,799
and has just an incredibly

449
00:17:30,549 --> 00:17:29,029
and so it just it made it impossible to

450
00:17:34,310 --> 00:17:30,559
feel sorry for yourself

451
00:17:34,950 --> 00:17:34,320
and it's to this day it's something that

452
00:17:38,150 --> 00:17:34,960
when

453
00:17:41,590 --> 00:17:38,160
i'm ever tempted to i was thinking yeah

454
00:17:44,390 --> 00:17:41,600
but i can walk you know i can go to the

455
00:17:45,909 --> 00:17:44,400
bathroom by myself

456
00:17:47,590 --> 00:17:45,919
you know some people denigrate stephen

457
00:17:49,669 --> 00:17:47,600
because he was heralded as the next

458
00:17:51,590 --> 00:17:49,679
einstein at least in the popular media

459
00:17:52,950 --> 00:17:51,600
but then it's a it might be a stretch to

460
00:17:55,190 --> 00:17:52,960
say he was the next einstein

461
00:17:57,669 --> 00:17:55,200
but what you can't fault him on at all

462
00:18:00,789 --> 00:17:57,679
is his diligence his persistence

463
00:18:02,710 --> 00:18:00,799
and the only other person i can compare

464
00:18:04,150 --> 00:18:02,720
him to would be euler who was blind

465
00:18:06,549 --> 00:18:04,160
and still did math but at least euler

466
00:18:09,669 --> 00:18:06,559
had his hands

467
00:18:13,270 --> 00:18:09,679
so um well

468
00:18:15,830 --> 00:18:13,280
stephen was driven to do the work

469
00:18:16,870 --> 00:18:15,840
that he wanted to do and it wasn't a

470
00:18:19,909 --> 00:18:16,880
question of

471
00:18:23,350 --> 00:18:19,919
oh we had to go do it because

472
00:18:25,590 --> 00:18:23,360
you know he needed the salary because

473
00:18:26,710 --> 00:18:25,600
you know the any of these other things

474
00:18:29,590 --> 00:18:26,720
and

475
00:18:31,029 --> 00:18:29,600
he certainly worked as hard as he could

476
00:18:36,789 --> 00:18:31,039
you know

477
00:18:37,830 --> 00:18:36,799
um yeah and it obviously at different

478
00:18:40,150 --> 00:18:37,840
times his

479
00:18:42,070 --> 00:18:40,160
ability to work was compromised by his

480
00:18:46,470 --> 00:18:42,080
condition

481
00:18:49,830 --> 00:18:46,480
but he did incredible things

482
00:18:53,430 --> 00:18:49,840
now the the problem with comparing

483
00:18:57,590 --> 00:18:53,440
um to einstein

484
00:19:01,110 --> 00:18:57,600
is that einstein

485
00:19:08,710 --> 00:19:04,789
unique combination of both brilliance

486
00:19:12,630 --> 00:19:08,720
and he came at a time when he could

487
00:19:16,150 --> 00:19:12,640
discover a tremendous amount of things

488
00:19:18,470 --> 00:19:16,160
um you know if if you want to call

489
00:19:20,230 --> 00:19:18,480
someone the next einstein

490
00:19:24,870 --> 00:19:20,240
the first thing to ask is well who was

491
00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:24,880
the is who was it before einstein

492
00:19:28,470 --> 00:19:26,640
and you could make a case for it being

493
00:19:30,549 --> 00:19:28,480
newton

494
00:19:32,230 --> 00:19:30,559
but okay if you if you take those two

495
00:19:35,270 --> 00:19:32,240
data points that means we should get one

496
00:19:38,390 --> 00:19:35,280
every 500 years

497
00:19:41,510 --> 00:19:38,400
so calm down on the

498
00:19:45,190 --> 00:19:41,520
who's the next einstein um

499
00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:45,200
there's a wonderful organization

500
00:19:50,870 --> 00:19:48,720
uh created by a uh a friend who was

501
00:19:52,710 --> 00:19:50,880
also at cambridge at one point not the

502
00:19:55,909 --> 00:19:52,720
same time i was there

503
00:19:57,750 --> 00:19:55,919
um and it was

504
00:20:00,630 --> 00:19:57,760
the name the organization is next

505
00:20:02,950 --> 00:20:00,640
einstein from africa

506
00:20:03,909 --> 00:20:02,960
and their idea was let's improve

507
00:20:07,190 --> 00:20:03,919
education

508
00:20:09,590 --> 00:20:07,200
and so forth and my

509
00:20:11,029 --> 00:20:09,600
my running joke with the guy who started

510
00:20:12,710 --> 00:20:11,039
it is

511
00:20:15,270 --> 00:20:12,720
okay but there's never been an einstein

512
00:20:20,950 --> 00:20:15,280
from america

513
00:20:26,630 --> 00:20:25,110
phds in physics and has more nobel

514
00:20:29,590 --> 00:20:26,640
prizes

515
00:20:30,950 --> 00:20:29,600
than any other country and then if you

516
00:20:33,590 --> 00:20:30,960
include

517
00:20:34,230 --> 00:20:33,600
in america's column people from other

518
00:20:36,789 --> 00:20:34,240
countries

519
00:20:37,669 --> 00:20:36,799
that did their work they got the phd in

520
00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:37,679
america

521
00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:40,640
it's huge and yet you could make a

522
00:20:43,590 --> 00:20:42,400
strong case that there's never been an

523
00:20:45,430 --> 00:20:43,600
american

524
00:20:47,190 --> 00:20:45,440
that had the breadth of contribution

525
00:20:48,710 --> 00:20:47,200
that einstein did

526
00:20:51,270 --> 00:20:48,720
now that doesn't mean we didn't have

527
00:20:54,310 --> 00:20:51,280
some awesome physicists we did

528
00:20:57,830 --> 00:20:54,320
fine uh um you know the feynman

529
00:21:01,029 --> 00:20:57,840
is a terrific example

530
00:21:03,029 --> 00:21:01,039
but einstein had the unique case that he

531
00:21:05,909 --> 00:21:03,039
was able to make

532
00:21:08,390 --> 00:21:05,919
very fundamental contributions in

533
00:21:10,549 --> 00:21:08,400
multiple areas

534
00:21:11,510 --> 00:21:10,559
you know we know him most in the

535
00:21:13,430 --> 00:21:11,520
particular

536
00:21:15,350 --> 00:21:13,440
popular realm for his theory of

537
00:21:16,950 --> 00:21:15,360
relativity

538
00:21:19,110 --> 00:21:16,960
amusingly that isn't what he got his

539
00:21:20,310 --> 00:21:19,120
nobel prize for for

540
00:21:22,630 --> 00:21:20,320
um he got something called the

541
00:21:24,950 --> 00:21:22,640
photoelectric effect which was

542
00:21:27,350 --> 00:21:24,960
uh one of the first great proofs of

543
00:21:29,270 --> 00:21:27,360
quantum mechanics

544
00:21:31,590 --> 00:21:29,280
which is weird because people usually

545
00:21:33,510 --> 00:21:31,600
think of einstein as being anti-quantum

546
00:21:34,870 --> 00:21:33,520
but the part i really love about it is

547
00:21:37,350 --> 00:21:34,880
that max

548
00:21:39,430 --> 00:21:37,360
planck who was the great physicist of

549
00:21:42,390 --> 00:21:39,440
that era

550
00:21:43,430 --> 00:21:42,400
wrote a recommendation letter for

551
00:21:47,350 --> 00:21:43,440
einstein

552
00:21:50,390 --> 00:21:47,360
to the um uh nobel prize committee

553
00:21:52,070 --> 00:21:50,400
saying look don't effectively

554
00:21:54,390 --> 00:21:52,080
don't worry about this relativity

555
00:21:57,029 --> 00:21:54,400
nonsense it'll blow over

556
00:21:59,029 --> 00:21:57,039
the kid is young you gotta reward him

557
00:22:02,230 --> 00:21:59,039
for this other thing

558
00:22:05,270 --> 00:22:02,240
interesting and yet today

559
00:22:08,549 --> 00:22:05,280
uh we think of him for that but his

560
00:22:13,029 --> 00:22:08,559
uh his role in statistical mechanics

561
00:22:17,110 --> 00:22:13,039
with um what we now call boze statistics

562
00:22:19,350 --> 00:22:17,120
uh it is also incredible

563
00:22:20,950 --> 00:22:19,360
and you must keep going through field

564
00:22:24,630 --> 00:22:20,960
after field where he

565
00:22:28,149 --> 00:22:24,640
was able to be incredibly influential as

566
00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:28,159
was um uh

567
00:22:35,510 --> 00:22:32,320
newton um my favorite crazy newton story

568
00:22:39,510 --> 00:22:35,520
is that uh you know he was made

569
00:22:42,789 --> 00:22:39,520
the chancellor of the british mint

570
00:22:45,669 --> 00:22:42,799
and at the time that was done

571
00:22:48,390 --> 00:22:45,679
as a political favor and it was

572
00:22:50,950 --> 00:22:48,400
explicitly a position that they would

573
00:22:52,630 --> 00:22:50,960
uh call a sinicure meaning without care

574
00:22:54,310 --> 00:22:52,640
like he didn't have to show up at the

575
00:22:58,950 --> 00:22:54,320
office you know

576
00:23:02,950 --> 00:22:58,960
he got into it okay and

577
00:23:06,310 --> 00:23:02,960
if you have an american quarter

578
00:23:08,070 --> 00:23:06,320
the edge is ripped the person who

579
00:23:12,149 --> 00:23:08,080
invented that

580
00:23:15,750 --> 00:23:12,159
sir isaac newton and the reason was

581
00:23:19,510 --> 00:23:15,760
they had a problem with uh

582
00:23:23,430 --> 00:23:19,520
many of the metals with the

583
00:23:24,149 --> 00:23:23,440
the edge of the uh coin holding up there

584
00:23:25,990 --> 00:23:24,159
was a

585
00:23:28,870 --> 00:23:26,000
maintenance there's certainly a problem

586
00:23:31,669 --> 00:23:28,880
of they couldn't make a clean edge

587
00:23:32,950 --> 00:23:31,679
and then it would also wear and then it

588
00:23:35,909 --> 00:23:32,960
was harder to tell

589
00:23:37,110 --> 00:23:35,919
counterfeits so that milling and i

590
00:23:38,870 --> 00:23:37,120
forget the name of it now but that

591
00:23:42,630 --> 00:23:38,880
milling was invented by

592
00:23:45,190 --> 00:23:42,640
newton so he did some now

593
00:23:49,750 --> 00:23:45,200
he also did some crazy [\h__\h] he was into

594
00:23:53,190 --> 00:23:52,070
have you thought much about what's

595
00:23:55,269 --> 00:23:53,200
holding physics back

596
00:23:56,789 --> 00:23:55,279
if you see physics as being held back in

597
00:23:58,950 --> 00:23:56,799
the fundamental laws

598
00:24:00,390 --> 00:23:58,960
for the past 40 years some people say

599
00:24:01,830 --> 00:24:00,400
that it's been taken over by string

600
00:24:04,310 --> 00:24:01,840
theory as well as we don't have

601
00:24:05,350 --> 00:24:04,320
much of data when it comes to we don't

602
00:24:07,350 --> 00:24:05,360
have much new data

603
00:24:09,029 --> 00:24:07,360
so have you thought much about that oh

604
00:24:14,070 --> 00:24:09,039
sure this is

605
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,269
the

606
00:24:21,350 --> 00:24:19,190
my joke with friends from graduate

607
00:24:25,029 --> 00:24:21,360
school is that it all went to hell

608
00:24:27,830 --> 00:24:25,039
uh as soon as i left physics um but

609
00:24:29,430 --> 00:24:27,840
yeah you gotta go back man no it wasn't

610
00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:29,440
i'll be with you every step of the way

611
00:24:32,710 --> 00:24:32,080
i'm not the reason okay it was it was

612
00:24:35,830 --> 00:24:32,720
either

613
00:24:37,510 --> 00:24:35,840
good choice on my part or it was a

614
00:24:40,470 --> 00:24:37,520
coincidence i don't think i could have

615
00:24:43,990 --> 00:24:40,480
solved i think there's a causal arrow

616
00:24:47,830 --> 00:24:44,000
yeah we have uh we've had the situation

617
00:24:49,269 --> 00:24:47,840
where uh you know in the 19th century

618
00:24:50,950 --> 00:24:49,279
they thought they were on the verge of

619
00:24:53,510 --> 00:24:50,960
figuring everything out there was just a

620
00:24:55,909 --> 00:24:53,520
few pesky problems

621
00:24:56,789 --> 00:24:55,919
then in the early part of the 20th

622
00:24:59,669 --> 00:24:56,799
century

623
00:25:01,750 --> 00:24:59,679
up through the 20s and the 30s they

624
00:25:05,190 --> 00:25:01,760
realized

625
00:25:08,710 --> 00:25:05,200
they had no [\h__\h] basically

626
00:25:11,909 --> 00:25:08,720
and this led to

627
00:25:14,230 --> 00:25:11,919
the development of quantum mechanics

628
00:25:16,149 --> 00:25:14,240
well quantum mechanics was fantastically

629
00:25:19,350 --> 00:25:16,159
successful

630
00:25:21,909 --> 00:25:19,360
uh then it ran up against fundamental uh

631
00:25:22,789 --> 00:25:21,919
physics and relativity so they had to

632
00:25:25,190 --> 00:25:22,799
create

633
00:25:27,510 --> 00:25:25,200
relativistic quantum mechanics and

634
00:25:30,950 --> 00:25:27,520
quantum field theory

635
00:25:34,310 --> 00:25:30,960
and all of that was

636
00:25:38,470 --> 00:25:34,320
pretty much in place um i

637
00:25:42,630 --> 00:25:38,480
i went to uh graduate school in physics

638
00:25:45,990 --> 00:25:42,640
in 79 the fall of 79.

639
00:25:48,149 --> 00:25:46,000
and while i was

640
00:25:49,830 --> 00:25:48,159
there maybe the first year maybe it was

641
00:25:53,430 --> 00:25:49,840
the second year

642
00:25:54,870 --> 00:25:53,440
um a guy who had been a

643
00:25:56,870 --> 00:25:54,880
graduate student who'd stayed on as

644
00:26:00,630 --> 00:25:56,880
opposed to frank wilczak

645
00:26:04,070 --> 00:26:00,640
gave a talk about asymptotic freedom

646
00:26:06,950 --> 00:26:04,080
which was one of the last

647
00:26:07,669 --> 00:26:06,960
pieces to really be put together as part

648
00:26:12,950 --> 00:26:07,679
of

649
00:26:15,830 --> 00:26:12,960
what people call quantum chromodynamics

650
00:26:19,190 --> 00:26:15,840
or the standard model

651
00:26:21,990 --> 00:26:19,200
uh and uh frankly got the name about

652
00:26:25,990 --> 00:26:25,190
well you could pick other moments in

653
00:26:27,830 --> 00:26:26,000
time but

654
00:26:30,230 --> 00:26:27,840
for me that's a good moment in time

655
00:26:34,149 --> 00:26:30,240
because at that point in time

656
00:26:36,390 --> 00:26:34,159
we knew there were a

657
00:26:39,510 --> 00:26:36,400
tremendous number of questions that we

658
00:26:42,470 --> 00:26:39,520
couldn't answer

659
00:26:43,190 --> 00:26:42,480
we had successfully integrated multiple

660
00:26:46,950 --> 00:26:43,200
kinds

661
00:26:49,230 --> 00:26:46,960
of uh fundamental physics so

662
00:26:51,669 --> 00:26:49,240
we had successfully integrated

663
00:26:53,510 --> 00:26:51,679
electromagnetism

664
00:26:55,430 --> 00:26:53,520
with something called the weak theory

665
00:26:56,870 --> 00:26:55,440
for the weak interaction it was an old

666
00:26:58,870 --> 00:26:56,880
electro week theory

667
00:27:00,149 --> 00:26:58,880
then we had developed quantum

668
00:27:03,110 --> 00:27:00,159
chromodynamics

669
00:27:04,230 --> 00:27:03,120
or qcd and together these things develop

670
00:27:06,070 --> 00:27:04,240
what

671
00:27:07,590 --> 00:27:06,080
since then we call the standard model of

672
00:27:08,870 --> 00:27:07,600
course we didn't call it the standard

673
00:27:11,430 --> 00:27:08,880
model when it was just

674
00:27:13,430 --> 00:27:11,440
freshly done because it was a little

675
00:27:17,590 --> 00:27:13,440
arrogant to call it standard

676
00:27:21,909 --> 00:27:20,950
and yet we didn't know a lot of very

677
00:27:25,350 --> 00:27:21,919
basic things

678
00:27:29,430 --> 00:27:25,360
we didn't know the

679
00:27:32,549 --> 00:27:29,440
precise relationship between many of our

680
00:27:35,830 --> 00:27:32,559
sets of particles um

681
00:27:38,389 --> 00:27:35,840
leptons which means an electron or a

682
00:27:40,149 --> 00:27:38,399
variety of other particles like that

683
00:27:42,070 --> 00:27:40,159
what are their relationship to the

684
00:27:45,269 --> 00:27:42,080
hadrons

685
00:27:48,549 --> 00:27:47,990
we didn't know the biggest ones we've

686
00:27:51,669 --> 00:27:48,559
now had

687
00:27:55,269 --> 00:27:51,679
all of that fit with gravity

688
00:27:58,389 --> 00:27:55,279
um now by that time we knew that

689
00:28:00,870 --> 00:27:58,399
the uh einstein's general theory of

690
00:28:04,549 --> 00:28:00,880
gravitation

691
00:28:05,990 --> 00:28:04,559
worked great and it predicted all kinds

692
00:28:10,789 --> 00:28:06,000
of things

693
00:28:13,990 --> 00:28:10,799
um still works great

694
00:28:14,389 --> 00:28:14,000
and that's the problem the standard

695
00:28:17,430 --> 00:28:14,399
model

696
00:28:20,630 --> 00:28:17,440
works great in its

697
00:28:24,710 --> 00:28:20,640
sphere of influence

698
00:28:28,310 --> 00:28:24,720
jr works great for gravity

699
00:28:31,510 --> 00:28:28,320
how the hell are they related and

700
00:28:31,990 --> 00:28:31,520
they have to be related because there

701
00:28:35,029 --> 00:28:32,000
are

702
00:28:39,029 --> 00:28:35,039
many many things that

703
00:28:42,830 --> 00:28:39,039
uh are clearly

704
00:28:45,669 --> 00:28:42,840
truly involve both quantum mechanics and

705
00:28:47,750 --> 00:28:45,679
um uh and gravity

706
00:28:49,190 --> 00:28:47,760
my my favorite simple one is candle

707
00:28:54,310 --> 00:28:49,200
flame

708
00:28:57,590 --> 00:28:54,320
wick on the candle

709
00:29:00,230 --> 00:28:57,600
it goes up as it go up gravity

710
00:29:00,710 --> 00:29:00,240
it's heating the gases they become less

711
00:29:03,990 --> 00:29:00,720
dense

712
00:29:05,510 --> 00:29:04,000
it goes up that light

713
00:29:09,029 --> 00:29:05,520
that light you're saying is quantum

714
00:29:13,669 --> 00:29:11,029
there's clearly quantum phenomena going

715
00:29:17,269 --> 00:29:13,679
on in a gravitational field

716
00:29:20,070 --> 00:29:17,279
how are they related now that's a very

717
00:29:22,549 --> 00:29:20,080
simple example and people could probably

718
00:29:23,669 --> 00:29:22,559
sort of explain that or wave their hands

719
00:29:27,590 --> 00:29:23,679
to explain it

720
00:29:30,070 --> 00:29:27,600
but when you get to uh black holes

721
00:29:31,750 --> 00:29:30,080
and and the intense things that space

722
00:29:36,389 --> 00:29:31,760
time does around black holes

723
00:29:39,510 --> 00:29:36,399
or you get to the origin of the universe

724
00:29:41,430 --> 00:29:39,520
or a variety of other things you got a

725
00:29:44,549 --> 00:29:41,440
problem

726
00:29:47,750 --> 00:29:44,559
and so

727
00:29:51,510 --> 00:29:47,760
people set out to solve that

728
00:29:53,990 --> 00:29:51,520
and uh the quote theory of everything is

729
00:29:58,149 --> 00:29:54,000
one of the names that people

730
00:30:00,070 --> 00:29:58,159
gave to that pursuit uh there was a

731
00:30:03,190 --> 00:30:00,080
time when people called it a grand

732
00:30:05,750 --> 00:30:03,200
unified theory instead

733
00:30:07,990 --> 00:30:05,760
but the goal even though the there was

734
00:30:11,990 --> 00:30:08,000
slight differences in what you

735
00:30:15,669 --> 00:30:12,000
would approach the goal was very similar

736
00:30:19,430 --> 00:30:15,679
um so anyway that was

737
00:30:22,630 --> 00:30:19,440
uh that was the situation

738
00:30:24,470 --> 00:30:22,640
40 years ago and it's the situation

739
00:30:26,230 --> 00:30:24,480
today

740
00:30:28,070 --> 00:30:26,240
have you been keeping up with any of the

741
00:30:30,149 --> 00:30:28,080
latest theories of everything such as

742
00:30:31,190 --> 00:30:30,159
weinstein eric weinstein's geometric

743
00:30:34,630 --> 00:30:31,200
unity or

744
00:30:38,470 --> 00:30:34,640
stephen wolfram's yes

745
00:30:41,909 --> 00:30:40,389
i i need to backtrack though there's one

746
00:30:44,630 --> 00:30:41,919
other thing that is

747
00:30:46,149 --> 00:30:44,640
remarkable about this last period of

748
00:30:49,269 --> 00:30:46,159
time

749
00:30:51,269 --> 00:30:49,279
um and uh that

750
00:30:52,950 --> 00:30:51,279
goes a little bit to your question of

751
00:30:55,110 --> 00:30:52,960
the whole world's attention was captured

752
00:30:58,149 --> 00:30:55,120
by string theory well

753
00:31:01,350 --> 00:30:58,159
it starting

754
00:31:03,669 --> 00:31:01,360
with relativity so really starting in

755
00:31:06,549 --> 00:31:03,679
1905 you could argue

756
00:31:10,070 --> 00:31:06,559
but particularly then general relativity

757
00:31:15,509 --> 00:31:13,350
an enormous amount of advances were made

758
00:31:18,470 --> 00:31:15,519
by considering the mathematical

759
00:31:20,389 --> 00:31:18,480
structure of the problem

760
00:31:22,310 --> 00:31:20,399
and in particular the mathematical

761
00:31:24,870 --> 00:31:22,320
symmetries of the problem

762
00:31:27,350 --> 00:31:24,880
and that when you found a mathematical

763
00:31:30,310 --> 00:31:27,360
symmetry

764
00:31:31,269 --> 00:31:30,320
it would if you took that seriously that

765
00:31:34,630 --> 00:31:31,279
would give you

766
00:31:38,470 --> 00:31:34,640
new and important physics

767
00:31:41,830 --> 00:31:38,480
so general relativity is in some sense

768
00:31:45,029 --> 00:31:41,840
the theory of general covariance

769
00:31:46,230 --> 00:31:45,039
so if you take einstein's extremely

770
00:31:48,789 --> 00:31:46,240
simple set of

771
00:31:50,389 --> 00:31:48,799
things of saying you know you you have

772
00:31:53,509 --> 00:31:50,399
these relative observers

773
00:31:58,389 --> 00:31:53,519
and um the inertial frames are the same

774
00:32:02,070 --> 00:32:01,190
uh that gives you general covariance and

775
00:32:04,149 --> 00:32:02,080
that gives you

776
00:32:06,710 --> 00:32:04,159
general relativity and then those same

777
00:32:09,430 --> 00:32:06,720
thoughts about applying covariance

778
00:32:11,830 --> 00:32:09,440
uh give you a tremendous amount of what

779
00:32:14,710 --> 00:32:11,840
it takes for a quantum field theory

780
00:32:16,310 --> 00:32:14,720
you then also take the idea of

781
00:32:19,350 --> 00:32:16,320
symmetries

782
00:32:20,230 --> 00:32:19,360
and say hey we have mathematical

783
00:32:23,269 --> 00:32:20,240
symmetries

784
00:32:25,590 --> 00:32:23,279
are coming and that's uh murray gilman

785
00:32:26,389 --> 00:32:25,600
was famous for calling this the eighth

786
00:32:29,909 --> 00:32:26,399
fold way

787
00:32:35,029 --> 00:32:31,750
group theory with an eight-fold symmetry

788
00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:37,590
and so mathematics was a tremendous

789
00:32:40,830 --> 00:32:38,880
guide

790
00:32:42,549 --> 00:32:40,840
and when you found a mathematical

791
00:32:44,230 --> 00:32:42,559
symmetry

792
00:32:46,950 --> 00:32:44,240
it usually would have a physical

793
00:32:49,990 --> 00:32:46,960
interpretation

794
00:32:50,789 --> 00:32:50,000
well until we found a mathematical

795
00:32:55,190 --> 00:32:50,799
symmetry called

796
00:32:59,509 --> 00:32:55,200
supersymmetry and supersymmetry

797
00:33:02,070 --> 00:32:59,519
from a fundamental mathematics

798
00:33:05,269 --> 00:33:02,080
perspective

799
00:33:11,990 --> 00:33:08,789
and it has sucked an enormous amount of

800
00:33:17,590 --> 00:33:14,149
into saying look this is so beautiful

801
00:33:21,990 --> 00:33:19,909
only so far as we can tell it's not

802
00:33:25,509 --> 00:33:22,000
correct

803
00:33:27,509 --> 00:33:25,519
like it got normal energies meaning the

804
00:33:29,990 --> 00:33:27,519
what we've been able to observe so far

805
00:33:36,149 --> 00:33:30,000
with even our best

806
00:33:39,590 --> 00:33:37,430
it predicts there should be twice as

807
00:33:42,710 --> 00:33:39,600
many particles as there are

808
00:33:44,070 --> 00:33:42,720
those those particles are called super

809
00:33:47,110 --> 00:33:44,080
partners

810
00:33:49,830 --> 00:33:47,120
and fundamentally if you have a

811
00:33:50,630 --> 00:33:49,840
the super symmetry it's analogous to

812
00:33:53,990 --> 00:33:50,640
saying

813
00:33:56,070 --> 00:33:54,000
well if i've got a charge

814
00:33:58,549 --> 00:33:56,080
you know minus one particles i better

815
00:34:01,990 --> 00:33:58,559
have charge plus one particles

816
00:34:02,710 --> 00:34:02,000
and so i have supercharges well then i

817
00:34:05,750 --> 00:34:02,720
need super

818
00:34:08,869 --> 00:34:05,760
partners so then

819
00:34:12,389 --> 00:34:08,879
and this idea was so seductive

820
00:34:17,669 --> 00:34:15,909
um gone

821
00:34:20,710 --> 00:34:17,679
put enormous amounts of brain power into

822
00:34:24,550 --> 00:34:20,720
trying to make it work

823
00:34:25,669 --> 00:34:24,560
and the the big showdown that everyone

824
00:34:28,869 --> 00:34:25,679
expected

825
00:34:32,629 --> 00:34:28,879
was the lhc

826
00:34:37,750 --> 00:34:32,639
and the stated purpose of the lhc

827
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:41,589
but

828
00:34:47,909 --> 00:34:45,030
almost everyone expected

829
00:34:50,629 --> 00:34:47,919
this would also be where we got the new

830
00:34:52,790 --> 00:34:50,639
set of clues

831
00:34:55,589 --> 00:34:52,800
and this is where we would be able to

832
00:34:59,430 --> 00:34:55,599
solve this fundamental problem

833
00:35:02,630 --> 00:34:59,440
because we've gone this 30 or 40 years

834
00:35:07,030 --> 00:35:02,640
staring at the old clues

835
00:35:12,550 --> 00:35:09,670
and in general physics has progressed

836
00:35:14,790 --> 00:35:12,560
best when we had clues

837
00:35:16,710 --> 00:35:14,800
now general relativity is the great

838
00:35:21,109 --> 00:35:16,720
exception to that

839
00:35:24,310 --> 00:35:21,119
einstein's uh inspiration for that

840
00:35:28,829 --> 00:35:24,320
is so

841
00:35:31,589 --> 00:35:28,839
weak it's so

842
00:35:34,870 --> 00:35:31,599
simple it it almost sounds

843
00:35:37,589 --> 00:35:34,880
simple-minded you know like someone

844
00:35:39,510 --> 00:35:37,599
coming into you and saying ah

845
00:35:41,349 --> 00:35:39,520
i've got this guy in an elevator and

846
00:35:43,510 --> 00:35:41,359
this guy is on this

847
00:35:45,030 --> 00:35:43,520
and i'm going to tell you all about the

848
00:35:45,910 --> 00:35:45,040
structure of the universe from this

849
00:35:49,270 --> 00:35:45,920
you'd say

850
00:35:52,630 --> 00:35:49,280
no no no no you're in that case

851
00:35:54,870 --> 00:35:52,640
but not not not einstein so that was a

852
00:35:55,829 --> 00:35:54,880
rare example of someone who had very few

853
00:35:59,349 --> 00:35:55,839
clues

854
00:36:01,750 --> 00:35:59,359
um uh newton

855
00:36:03,829 --> 00:36:01,760
had very few clues you know that there's

856
00:36:07,589 --> 00:36:03,839
an apocryphal story about the apple

857
00:36:11,990 --> 00:36:10,790
that guy did not take very much in the

858
00:36:16,390 --> 00:36:12,000
way of

859
00:36:19,510 --> 00:36:16,400
uh inspiration to get going

860
00:36:21,190 --> 00:36:19,520
um so that was another great one but

861
00:36:23,190 --> 00:36:21,200
we've we have this problem now that we

862
00:36:26,870 --> 00:36:23,200
have the same clues we've looked at for

863
00:36:31,109 --> 00:36:26,880
30 or 40 years

864
00:36:39,190 --> 00:36:35,670
um it didn't find any super partners

865
00:36:42,950 --> 00:36:39,200
and so far it hasn't had any hint

866
00:36:45,190 --> 00:36:42,960
of that and periodically

867
00:36:46,310 --> 00:36:45,200
over the last three or four years there

868
00:36:48,870 --> 00:36:46,320
will be a murmur

869
00:36:49,349 --> 00:36:48,880
in the field of oh there's someone's got

870
00:36:51,430 --> 00:36:49,359
you know

871
00:36:53,670 --> 00:36:51,440
so and so in this to the two different

872
00:36:56,470 --> 00:36:53,680
projects of this atlas

873
00:36:58,950 --> 00:36:56,480
and alice oh alice is seeing something

874
00:37:01,990 --> 00:36:58,960
or atlas is seeing something

875
00:37:08,550 --> 00:37:05,829
but so far that's all come to naught

876
00:37:09,190 --> 00:37:08,560
and it's probably true well certainly

877
00:37:12,630 --> 00:37:09,200
given

878
00:37:16,069 --> 00:37:12,640
that outcome

879
00:37:19,109 --> 00:37:16,079
if you looked back at the field 20 years

880
00:37:21,750 --> 00:37:19,119
ago or 25 years ago and said

881
00:37:23,270 --> 00:37:21,760
okay we don't really know what's going

882
00:37:28,069 --> 00:37:23,280
on

883
00:37:31,750 --> 00:37:28,079
basket

884
00:37:34,829 --> 00:37:31,760
you'd say no let's you know

885
00:37:36,069 --> 00:37:34,839
we should bet on lots of different ideas

886
00:37:39,109 --> 00:37:36,079
but

887
00:37:39,910 --> 00:37:39,119
there was an overwhelming bat on super

888
00:37:44,630 --> 00:37:39,920
symmetry

889
00:37:53,430 --> 00:37:47,670
the weirder it got in going

890
00:37:57,750 --> 00:37:56,069
it didn't dissuade people now there's

891
00:37:59,270 --> 00:37:57,760
friends of mine who say oh nathan you're

892
00:38:04,150 --> 00:37:59,280
out of it you don't understand how

893
00:38:07,750 --> 00:38:04,160
wonderful and how beautiful it is

894
00:38:11,270 --> 00:38:07,760
i i will stipulate to it being beautiful

895
00:38:13,750 --> 00:38:11,280
um and string theory has

896
00:38:15,190 --> 00:38:13,760
uh led to some interesting discoveries

897
00:38:17,670 --> 00:38:15,200
mathematics

898
00:38:18,950 --> 00:38:17,680
uh ed whitton who i've known since

899
00:38:22,630 --> 00:38:18,960
graduate school is a

900
00:38:25,910 --> 00:38:22,640
great friend and i think the world of ed

901
00:38:28,390 --> 00:38:25,920
uh got the fields medal in mathematics

902
00:38:29,750 --> 00:38:28,400
for a lot of things he worked on while

903
00:38:31,589 --> 00:38:29,760
trying to

904
00:38:33,030 --> 00:38:31,599
investigate super symmetry and string

905
00:38:38,470 --> 00:38:33,040
theory

906
00:38:41,589 --> 00:38:38,480
physical result to its name and that

907
00:38:42,630 --> 00:38:41,599
helps you calculate the modes in a black

908
00:38:45,589 --> 00:38:42,640
hole

909
00:38:47,109 --> 00:38:45,599
which uh go to the still somewhat

910
00:38:49,270 --> 00:38:47,119
controversial

911
00:38:53,750 --> 00:38:49,280
uh issue of whether a black hole

912
00:39:00,550 --> 00:38:57,589
but at this stage

913
00:39:01,510 --> 00:39:00,560
we need one of two things to happen we

914
00:39:05,349 --> 00:39:01,520
either need

915
00:39:08,470 --> 00:39:05,359
new clues or we need

916
00:39:11,589 --> 00:39:08,480
some damn genius who's so smart he or

917
00:39:14,470 --> 00:39:11,599
she does not need clues

918
00:39:16,550 --> 00:39:14,480
well those geniuses seem to come around

919
00:39:18,310 --> 00:39:16,560
every 500 years

920
00:39:20,870 --> 00:39:18,320
now maybe we got a little larger

921
00:39:22,870 --> 00:39:20,880
population today and we're educating a

922
00:39:25,190 --> 00:39:22,880
larger fraction of that population so

923
00:39:28,310 --> 00:39:25,200
maybe it isn't 500 but

924
00:39:32,470 --> 00:39:28,320
it's not a great uh it's not

925
00:39:36,150 --> 00:39:32,480
not great statistics there um or

926
00:39:43,589 --> 00:39:36,160
you need new clues but uh

927
00:39:46,550 --> 00:39:43,599
lhc was ridiculously expensive

928
00:39:46,950 --> 00:39:46,560
trying to come up with a something that

929
00:39:50,150 --> 00:39:46,960
is

930
00:39:53,670 --> 00:39:50,160
dramatically better than lhc

931
00:39:56,710 --> 00:39:53,680
yeah they probably can eat

932
00:39:58,950 --> 00:39:56,720
some number of factors and i i'm not

933
00:40:01,589 --> 00:39:58,960
involved in it so i won't speculate as

934
00:40:05,030 --> 00:40:01,599
to how many factors but

935
00:40:07,990 --> 00:40:05,040
let's say they got a factor of 10.

936
00:40:08,829 --> 00:40:08,000
um we don't know what the present will a

937
00:40:12,309 --> 00:40:08,839
factor of 10

938
00:40:14,630 --> 00:40:12,319
matter or will it be a factor

939
00:40:17,030 --> 00:40:14,640
of 100 or will it be a factor of a

940
00:40:20,950 --> 00:40:17,040
thousand or

941
00:40:29,990 --> 00:40:25,589
and as a result

942
00:40:32,309 --> 00:40:30,000
that very confused story

943
00:40:33,190 --> 00:40:32,319
doesn't seem like it's the single best

944
00:40:36,630 --> 00:40:33,200
story to go

945
00:40:38,550 --> 00:40:36,640
take to nation states and say please

946
00:40:41,109 --> 00:40:38,560
give us

947
00:40:43,030 --> 00:40:41,119
500 billion dollars that it might take

948
00:40:46,390 --> 00:40:43,040
to make something that was

949
00:40:49,510 --> 00:40:46,400
many orders of magnitude better right

950
00:40:51,589 --> 00:40:49,520
right or or we just say okay we have to

951
00:40:54,390 --> 00:40:51,599
put on our thinking gaps

952
00:40:55,430 --> 00:40:54,400
and come up with cheap ways or cheaper

953
00:40:57,510 --> 00:40:55,440
ways

954
00:41:00,390 --> 00:40:57,520
to get to that next level of power

955
00:41:04,630 --> 00:41:00,400
that's also a possibility

956
00:41:09,109 --> 00:41:04,640
but either way we either need

957
00:41:11,829 --> 00:41:09,119
some genius on the old clues

958
00:41:12,390 --> 00:41:11,839
or some new clues now there are people

959
00:41:15,990 --> 00:41:12,400
who are

960
00:41:20,470 --> 00:41:16,000
working on this um peter white who was

961
00:41:22,870 --> 00:41:20,480
uh my roommate in graduate school

962
00:41:24,630 --> 00:41:22,880
one of the most articulate critics of

963
00:41:30,710 --> 00:41:24,640
string theory

964
00:41:36,950 --> 00:41:34,309
peter has recently come out with what

965
00:41:40,150 --> 00:41:36,960
to me look like some very intriguing

966
00:41:44,150 --> 00:41:42,470
and they're along a different approach

967
00:41:47,349 --> 00:41:44,160
than most people have taken

968
00:41:51,990 --> 00:41:50,150
but they're not done yet either they're

969
00:41:55,190 --> 00:41:52,000
uh

970
00:41:58,870 --> 00:41:55,200
they're a stab in the dark

971
00:42:03,030 --> 00:41:58,880
and it will require a lot more work

972
00:42:06,870 --> 00:42:03,040
um within the field of computing

973
00:42:09,510 --> 00:42:06,880
there have been since the 1960s

974
00:42:11,030 --> 00:42:09,520
there have been a variety of people who

975
00:42:14,829 --> 00:42:11,040
have tried to take

976
00:42:16,790 --> 00:42:14,839
the idea of computing as a metaphor

977
00:42:20,470 --> 00:42:16,800
seriously

978
00:42:27,589 --> 00:42:23,990
there's a great uh essay which was

979
00:42:31,430 --> 00:42:27,599
originally a lecture um

980
00:42:34,069 --> 00:42:31,440
by uh edvard vigner

981
00:42:35,510 --> 00:42:34,079
vigner was a nobel prize winner in uh

982
00:42:38,710 --> 00:42:35,520
physics

983
00:42:40,790 --> 00:42:38,720
and the name of this essay is the

984
00:42:41,829 --> 00:42:40,800
unreasonable effectiveness of

985
00:42:47,109 --> 00:42:41,839
mathematics

986
00:42:51,750 --> 00:42:47,119
in physics and so finger says look

987
00:42:55,829 --> 00:42:51,760
how come it's so damn easy

988
00:42:59,270 --> 00:42:55,839
you know we we a lot of physical laws

989
00:43:02,230 --> 00:42:59,280
are first or second order equations

990
00:43:05,910 --> 00:43:02,240
and most of it's linear which means we

991
00:43:11,270 --> 00:43:09,109
and then of course we know that there

992
00:43:15,270 --> 00:43:11,280
are other parts of physics that aren't

993
00:43:19,030 --> 00:43:15,280
linear but

994
00:43:23,349 --> 00:43:19,040
the if i were to give a modern

995
00:43:26,150 --> 00:43:23,359
version of wigner's thing

996
00:43:28,230 --> 00:43:26,160
i would say hey not only has it been

997
00:43:30,870 --> 00:43:28,240
math has had it it's a great

998
00:43:33,270 --> 00:43:30,880
run but are we sure that it's

999
00:43:34,630 --> 00:43:33,280
mathematics in the same way we've done

1000
00:43:39,190 --> 00:43:34,640
it before

1001
00:43:41,510 --> 00:43:39,200
that we need next and that's why people

1002
00:43:43,670 --> 00:43:41,520
like david deutsch as an example david

1003
00:43:47,190 --> 00:43:43,680
deutsch

1004
00:43:50,790 --> 00:43:47,200
is a physicist he was

1005
00:43:52,550 --> 00:43:50,800
the inventor of quantum computing if you

1006
00:43:53,670 --> 00:43:52,560
will he had the idea that maybe you

1007
00:43:56,790 --> 00:43:53,680
could compute

1008
00:43:59,109 --> 00:43:56,800
with quantum systems

1009
00:44:00,550 --> 00:43:59,119
and david has done some very deep

1010
00:44:03,190 --> 00:44:00,560
thinking about

1011
00:44:06,829 --> 00:44:03,200
what it would mean to have a computable

1012
00:44:10,150 --> 00:44:06,839
universe versus not

1013
00:44:13,910 --> 00:44:10,160
where instead of relying

1014
00:44:17,750 --> 00:44:13,920
on uh

1015
00:44:19,990 --> 00:44:17,760
simple equations with polynomials or

1016
00:44:21,990 --> 00:44:20,000
sines and cosines the things that we're

1017
00:44:24,470 --> 00:44:22,000
used to in

1018
00:44:26,790 --> 00:44:24,480
in school maybe the world is

1019
00:44:30,470 --> 00:44:26,800
fundamentally more about

1020
00:44:34,829 --> 00:44:30,480
computation and computation

1021
00:44:36,150 --> 00:44:34,839
is in some sense fundamentally more

1022
00:44:40,069 --> 00:44:36,160
complex

1023
00:44:45,829 --> 00:44:43,109
and you can figure that out

1024
00:44:47,270 --> 00:44:45,839
in things like the various complexity

1025
00:44:49,510 --> 00:44:47,280
theories

1026
00:44:51,829 --> 00:44:49,520
that you know a simple touring machine

1027
00:44:55,270 --> 00:44:51,839
can't predict when it will end

1028
00:44:58,710 --> 00:44:55,280
just as a matter of principle it can't

1029
00:45:01,030 --> 00:44:58,720
yep well um

1030
00:45:02,550 --> 00:45:01,040
there's a whole pile of people besides

1031
00:45:06,550 --> 00:45:02,560
deutsch that have

1032
00:45:09,030 --> 00:45:06,560
gotten excited about this uh

1033
00:45:11,030 --> 00:45:09,040
but i've known stephen wolfram since i

1034
00:45:12,870 --> 00:45:11,040
was at princeton he was at the institute

1035
00:45:14,630 --> 00:45:12,880
for advanced study at the time and

1036
00:45:17,030 --> 00:45:14,640
he's a great friend of mine i have huge

1037
00:45:20,230 --> 00:45:17,040
respect for him

1038
00:45:23,270 --> 00:45:20,240
i use mathematica almost every day

1039
00:45:27,270 --> 00:45:23,280
is his great uh contribution uh

1040
00:45:30,950 --> 00:45:27,280
to software um he's got

1041
00:45:36,150 --> 00:45:30,960
a uh an approach where

1042
00:45:39,270 --> 00:45:36,160
he has been able to replicate

1043
00:45:40,470 --> 00:45:39,280
the classical this is perhaps slightly

1044
00:45:42,150 --> 00:45:40,480
unfair did but

1045
00:45:44,829 --> 00:45:42,160
he's able to replicate some of the

1046
00:45:49,349 --> 00:45:44,839
classical features

1047
00:45:52,230 --> 00:45:49,359
of uh quantum field theory

1048
00:45:53,270 --> 00:45:52,240
um so if you think about all of these

1049
00:45:56,150 --> 00:45:53,280
fields have got

1050
00:45:58,870 --> 00:45:56,160
a quantization com component but they

1051
00:46:00,790 --> 00:45:58,880
also have a classical component

1052
00:46:02,790 --> 00:46:00,800
electromagnetism being the simplest

1053
00:46:05,109 --> 00:46:02,800
example of that but there is a

1054
00:46:06,550 --> 00:46:05,119
effectively a classical component of

1055
00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:06,560
these other things and

1056
00:46:13,430 --> 00:46:10,000
stephen has shown that you can use

1057
00:46:16,390 --> 00:46:13,440
very simple computational systems

1058
00:46:17,430 --> 00:46:16,400
like cellular automata or other simple

1059
00:46:21,109 --> 00:46:17,440
things

1060
00:46:21,119 --> 00:46:25,589
many of the same

1061
00:46:33,270 --> 00:46:29,030
symmetries as

1062
00:46:37,910 --> 00:46:37,109
now there's two ways to view that one

1063
00:46:42,230 --> 00:46:37,920
way to view that

1064
00:46:46,470 --> 00:46:42,240
is to say yes that's great but

1065
00:46:49,030 --> 00:46:46,480
now tie them into a real quantum theory

1066
00:46:50,470 --> 00:46:49,040
and stephen would i think be the first

1067
00:46:52,069 --> 00:46:50,480
to say well

1068
00:46:54,309 --> 00:46:52,079
that's hard he hasn't quite done that

1069
00:46:56,550 --> 00:46:54,319
yet but he has done this intriguing

1070
00:46:58,309 --> 00:46:56,560
first part um

1071
00:47:00,150 --> 00:46:58,319
my friend peter has in a different way

1072
00:47:02,069 --> 00:47:00,160
done that first part

1073
00:47:03,510 --> 00:47:02,079
computation as well or completely

1074
00:47:05,990 --> 00:47:03,520
different is it also computational this

1075
00:47:10,150 --> 00:47:06,000
is much more about traditional

1076
00:47:13,670 --> 00:47:10,160
very very obtuse mathematics

1077
00:47:20,309 --> 00:47:16,870
the

1078
00:47:24,069 --> 00:47:20,319
that will work

1079
00:47:25,750 --> 00:47:24,079
but maybe not

1080
00:47:26,950 --> 00:47:25,760
so you're agnostic you don't have a

1081
00:47:28,150 --> 00:47:26,960
preference to which one of these

1082
00:47:31,589 --> 00:47:28,160
theories

1083
00:47:38,549 --> 00:47:34,870
i mean part of the tragedy

1084
00:47:42,950 --> 00:47:38,559
of super symmetry is that hunches

1085
00:47:46,790 --> 00:47:42,960
based on a mathematical idea

1086
00:47:49,670 --> 00:47:46,800
for the first time didn't work

1087
00:47:50,710 --> 00:47:49,680
right makes you pessimistic and so once

1088
00:47:53,589 --> 00:47:50,720
that's occurred

1089
00:47:55,589 --> 00:47:53,599
then you say and and man that one had

1090
00:47:59,190 --> 00:47:55,599
all the iq in the world

1091
00:48:01,430 --> 00:47:59,200
trying to desperately resuscitate it and

1092
00:48:02,870 --> 00:48:01,440
revive it and make it work

1093
00:48:06,230 --> 00:48:02,880
and yet it doesn't seem to be the way

1094
00:48:09,270 --> 00:48:06,240
nature operates

1095
00:48:12,950 --> 00:48:09,280
um at the same time

1096
00:48:16,549 --> 00:48:12,960
i have a basic faith in the

1097
00:48:18,870 --> 00:48:16,559
idea of physics which is

1098
00:48:20,630 --> 00:48:18,880
that we can figure out how the universe

1099
00:48:22,950 --> 00:48:20,640
works

1100
00:48:25,589 --> 00:48:22,960
and if you think about what we've

1101
00:48:28,309 --> 00:48:25,599
achieved so far

1102
00:48:30,150 --> 00:48:28,319
general relativity quantum field theory

1103
00:48:33,670 --> 00:48:30,160
um

1104
00:48:36,870 --> 00:48:33,680
boy oh boy we have understood

1105
00:48:40,630 --> 00:48:36,880
the universe around us uh

1106
00:48:43,829 --> 00:48:40,640
vastly better than in some sense we have

1107
00:48:51,349 --> 00:48:48,549
and um

1108
00:48:52,390 --> 00:48:51,359
you know whether you think that's luck

1109
00:48:55,990 --> 00:48:52,400
or

1110
00:48:58,790 --> 00:48:56,000
that's because there's some metric that

1111
00:49:02,150 --> 00:48:58,800
the simplest things actually work

1112
00:49:06,470 --> 00:49:02,160
or i mean you can go all

1113
00:49:08,309 --> 00:49:06,480
round and round on that um

1114
00:49:09,990 --> 00:49:08,319
you know the the counter example of

1115
00:49:14,390 --> 00:49:10,000
simple things

1116
00:49:18,069 --> 00:49:14,400
working out simply is number theory

1117
00:49:22,069 --> 00:49:18,079
where you know i can explain to a child

1118
00:49:25,750 --> 00:49:22,079
in a few minutes what integers are

1119
00:49:29,030 --> 00:49:25,760
and uh you can easily show

1120
00:49:31,190 --> 00:49:29,040
how factoring works and multiplication

1121
00:49:32,790 --> 00:49:31,200
works

1122
00:49:36,150 --> 00:49:32,800
and then you can state something like

1123
00:49:38,710 --> 00:49:36,160
the goldbach goldbox conjecture

1124
00:49:40,150 --> 00:49:38,720
and we have no clue how to prove it even

1125
00:49:46,950 --> 00:49:40,160
though it's obviously true

1126
00:49:50,630 --> 00:49:48,950
and that's an extraordinarily simple

1127
00:49:52,790 --> 00:49:50,640
system

1128
00:49:55,270 --> 00:49:52,800
so maybe it's that our idea of

1129
00:49:58,790 --> 00:49:55,280
simplicity isn't right

1130
00:50:00,230 --> 00:49:58,800
um anyway hey i still think it's worth

1131
00:50:02,069 --> 00:50:00,240
people trying to figure out the

1132
00:50:05,190 --> 00:50:02,079
fundamental laws

1133
00:50:07,190 --> 00:50:05,200
and it's well worth it but

1134
00:50:08,549 --> 00:50:07,200
we have gone through a very difficult

1135
00:50:10,069 --> 00:50:08,559
period in that

1136
00:50:12,390 --> 00:50:10,079
what do you mean when you say that our

1137
00:50:14,150 --> 00:50:12,400
idea of simplicity may be wrong what

1138
00:50:16,390 --> 00:50:14,160
could it be first of all what is it and

1139
00:50:19,510 --> 00:50:16,400
then what we are highly biased

1140
00:50:20,950 --> 00:50:19,520
towards things which we can explain with

1141
00:50:24,390 --> 00:50:20,960
simple continuum

1142
00:50:27,829 --> 00:50:24,400
model stuff

1143
00:50:31,589 --> 00:50:27,839
um so uh

1144
00:50:34,710 --> 00:50:31,599
the newton's great invention was the

1145
00:50:37,990 --> 00:50:34,720
calculus which was to say okay let's

1146
00:50:40,950 --> 00:50:38,000
reason about a continuum

1147
00:50:43,030 --> 00:50:40,960
of things starting off with the fact

1148
00:50:44,549 --> 00:50:43,040
well guys that we only have 10 fingers

1149
00:50:47,589 --> 00:50:44,559
and they're kind of discreet

1150
00:50:48,309 --> 00:50:47,599
it looks like you almost have nine yeah

1151
00:50:58,069 --> 00:50:48,319
i

1152
00:51:00,710 --> 00:50:58,079
would always joke to people and say yeah

1153
00:51:02,230 --> 00:51:00,720
he's a scientist and he's using his

1154
00:51:04,470 --> 00:51:02,240
physics background and his lab

1155
00:51:06,309 --> 00:51:04,480
to transform food it's essentially like

1156
00:51:07,670 --> 00:51:06,319
laser cooking a chicken to perfection

1157
00:51:09,589 --> 00:51:07,680
and then i always said that laser

1158
00:51:11,190 --> 00:51:09,599
cooking chicken but then i thought well

1159
00:51:12,790 --> 00:51:11,200
i don't see anything that you do as a

1160
00:51:14,069 --> 00:51:12,800
laser cooking then i thought well maybe

1161
00:51:16,069 --> 00:51:14,079
you do maybe i should ask you

1162
00:51:17,670 --> 00:51:16,079
is there anything uh sure you do

1163
00:51:18,630 --> 00:51:17,680
approximate something like a laser

1164
00:51:22,230 --> 00:51:18,640
cooking

1165
00:51:24,069 --> 00:51:22,240
oh sure um we uh

1166
00:51:26,230 --> 00:51:24,079
well there's lots of things where you

1167
00:51:28,549 --> 00:51:26,240
cook with light

1168
00:51:30,230 --> 00:51:28,559
so a neapolitan pizza is cooked with

1169
00:51:32,790 --> 00:51:30,240
light

1170
00:51:35,349 --> 00:51:32,800
um uh broiling is about cooking with

1171
00:51:38,309 --> 00:51:35,359
light it's all about infrared light

1172
00:51:39,589 --> 00:51:38,319
but for lasers specifically uh we've

1173
00:51:41,430 --> 00:51:39,599
done a bunch of

1174
00:51:43,190 --> 00:51:41,440
stuff that i think is cool i'm not sure

1175
00:51:45,750 --> 00:51:43,200
it's very fundamental

1176
00:51:47,430 --> 00:51:45,760
uh using laser cutters or leaves or

1177
00:51:50,150 --> 00:51:47,440
engravers

1178
00:51:50,870 --> 00:51:50,160
to do cool things you know we could etch

1179
00:51:54,150 --> 00:51:50,880
your face

1180
00:51:55,349 --> 00:51:54,160
on a piece of meat or on a slice of

1181
00:51:58,870 --> 00:51:55,359
bread because

1182
00:52:02,829 --> 00:51:58,880
it looks just like you um

1183
00:52:06,230 --> 00:52:02,839
or cut impossibly complicated

1184
00:52:06,870 --> 00:52:06,240
uh or otherwise impossibly complicated

1185
00:52:09,589 --> 00:52:06,880
patterns

1186
00:52:11,670 --> 00:52:09,599
out of a layer of sugar it sounds more

1187
00:52:15,510 --> 00:52:11,680
like presentation then

1188
00:52:20,309 --> 00:52:15,520
well for a laser cutter yes um lasers

1189
00:52:26,870 --> 00:52:23,829
don't do a lot of things that we

1190
00:52:30,829 --> 00:52:26,880
would want to do with cooking

1191
00:52:34,230 --> 00:52:30,839
right i mean we're just we would rather

1192
00:52:37,670 --> 00:52:34,240
cook with a broad source

1193
00:52:41,109 --> 00:52:37,680
and continuous source of infrared than a

1194
00:52:42,470 --> 00:52:41,119
pulsed laser that would either burn a

1195
00:52:45,829 --> 00:52:42,480
hole

1196
00:52:49,430 --> 00:52:45,839
or be too diffuse so

1197
00:52:52,630 --> 00:52:49,440
in general lasers uh

1198
00:52:55,510 --> 00:52:52,640
are not the be-all and end-all um

1199
00:52:57,190 --> 00:52:55,520
but they're useful for some things

1200
00:52:58,150 --> 00:52:57,200
that's another reason why i wanted you

1201
00:53:01,829 --> 00:52:58,160
as an uncle

1202
00:53:03,190 --> 00:53:01,839
because i love food tremendously

1203
00:53:04,870 --> 00:53:03,200
and when i read that you made the

1204
00:53:05,750 --> 00:53:04,880
perfect fry with bathing it and

1205
00:53:08,870 --> 00:53:05,760
ultrasonic oil

1206
00:53:11,750 --> 00:53:08,880
is that correct yeah i'm like man i wish

1207
00:53:12,950 --> 00:53:11,760
i knew this guy because just so you know

1208
00:53:16,309 --> 00:53:12,960
before each interview

1209
00:53:17,030 --> 00:53:16,319
i fast so right now i'm at a a 48 hour

1210
00:53:19,190 --> 00:53:17,040
fast

1211
00:53:20,870 --> 00:53:19,200
and one of the reasons is because i try

1212
00:53:22,069 --> 00:53:20,880
to research as much as possible about

1213
00:53:23,670 --> 00:53:22,079
the interviewee

1214
00:53:25,190 --> 00:53:23,680
and one of the ways that i productively

1215
00:53:26,309 --> 00:53:25,200
do that is just by not eating so i can

1216
00:53:28,549 --> 00:53:26,319
just focus on work

1217
00:53:29,670 --> 00:53:28,559
until i sleep okay but another reason is

1218
00:53:33,109 --> 00:53:29,680
because i'm so

1219
00:53:35,270 --> 00:53:33,119
avaricious that when i do eat i eat like

1220
00:53:38,549 --> 00:53:35,280
mad and then i have to just i'm like

1221
00:53:45,670 --> 00:53:40,470
glad for this to end is what you just

1222
00:53:48,710 --> 00:53:47,349
yeah okay so going back going back to

1223
00:53:53,589 --> 00:53:48,720
news

1224
00:53:53,599 --> 00:53:58,950
in physics for things that

1225
00:54:04,390 --> 00:54:02,069
can be solved by simple equations

1226
00:54:05,190 --> 00:54:04,400
ideally linear if they're non-linear

1227
00:54:08,870 --> 00:54:05,200
well not

1228
00:54:14,390 --> 00:54:12,309
and uh

1229
00:54:15,990 --> 00:54:14,400
and that's worked super well for lots of

1230
00:54:18,870 --> 00:54:16,000
things but

1231
00:54:20,150 --> 00:54:18,880
uh you know the the discoveries that

1232
00:54:24,790 --> 00:54:20,160
people had of

1233
00:54:28,470 --> 00:54:24,800
uh chaos and dynamical systems

1234
00:54:30,230 --> 00:54:28,480
and more generally fractals

1235
00:54:31,829 --> 00:54:30,240
out in whether there's fractals in the

1236
00:54:36,829 --> 00:54:31,839
real world or fractals

1237
00:54:46,230 --> 00:54:39,270
the

1238
00:54:50,390 --> 00:54:46,240
totally modeled by very simple

1239
00:54:52,150 --> 00:54:50,400
models might be quite limited and we

1240
00:54:54,390 --> 00:54:52,160
might have already

1241
00:54:55,990 --> 00:54:54,400
slipped them all up you have like we

1242
00:54:57,750 --> 00:54:56,000
mentioned we have variegated fields that

1243
00:55:00,069 --> 00:54:57,760
you're pretty much an expert in

1244
00:55:01,750 --> 00:55:00,079
how practically speaking do you do the

1245
00:55:04,150 --> 00:55:01,760
research when you're interested in

1246
00:55:05,589 --> 00:55:04,160
let's say some new field field x what do

1247
00:55:07,430 --> 00:55:05,599
you start out with do you

1248
00:55:09,030 --> 00:55:07,440
interview do you call experts do you

1249
00:55:09,990 --> 00:55:09,040
just go on wikipedia do you go on google

1250
00:55:11,589 --> 00:55:10,000
scholar

1251
00:55:13,349 --> 00:55:11,599
what does the journey from knowing

1252
00:55:15,190 --> 00:55:13,359
nothing to becoming

1253
00:55:18,549 --> 00:55:15,200
moderately ensconced in it to becoming

1254
00:55:21,910 --> 00:55:21,109
well it's got all those steps um you

1255
00:55:23,990 --> 00:55:21,920
know you

1256
00:55:25,670 --> 00:55:24,000
first i try to read as much as i can

1257
00:55:29,589 --> 00:55:25,680
about it

1258
00:55:32,630 --> 00:55:29,599
um often that means i will buy

1259
00:55:34,150 --> 00:55:32,640
books on amazon as the first step do you

1260
00:55:36,309 --> 00:55:34,160
mind taking us through a specific

1261
00:55:39,589 --> 00:55:36,319
example you can pick photography you can

1262
00:55:42,630 --> 00:55:39,599
pick paleontology asteroids

1263
00:55:44,630 --> 00:55:42,640
um well sure i'll pick out let me start

1264
00:55:48,069 --> 00:55:44,640
with asteroids with asteroids

1265
00:55:50,950 --> 00:55:48,079
some people came to me with

1266
00:55:52,309 --> 00:55:50,960
actually a request to donate money to a

1267
00:55:54,230 --> 00:55:52,319
project

1268
00:55:56,230 --> 00:55:54,240
to build a satellite to go look at

1269
00:56:00,549 --> 00:55:56,240
asteroids

1270
00:56:02,630 --> 00:56:00,559
and we spent some time discussing the

1271
00:56:05,910 --> 00:56:02,640
physics of it and i wasn't very

1272
00:56:09,990 --> 00:56:05,920
satisfied and so they sent me

1273
00:56:11,910 --> 00:56:10,000
a white paper about

1274
00:56:13,510 --> 00:56:11,920
this and then i was really dissatisfied

1275
00:56:15,030 --> 00:56:13,520
because i just figured this has to be

1276
00:56:18,470 --> 00:56:15,040
wrong

1277
00:56:20,309 --> 00:56:18,480
and so i reached out to some folks and i

1278
00:56:23,910 --> 00:56:20,319
got some data

1279
00:56:26,150 --> 00:56:23,920
and it took me a few months

1280
00:56:27,670 --> 00:56:26,160
but i showed there's a whole bunch of

1281
00:56:30,630 --> 00:56:27,680
stuff that was

1282
00:56:31,270 --> 00:56:30,640
wrong with their approach you wrote a

1283
00:56:34,470 --> 00:56:31,280
100

1284
00:56:35,670 --> 00:56:34,480
page paper well i've had a couple of

1285
00:56:37,190 --> 00:56:35,680
them

1286
00:56:38,789 --> 00:56:37,200
actually so i don't know if the first

1287
00:56:42,870 --> 00:56:38,799
one was 100 it might have been

1288
00:56:46,470 --> 00:56:42,880
i've written a bunch of papers on it and

1289
00:56:49,589 --> 00:56:46,480
along the way yes i contacted

1290
00:56:53,030 --> 00:56:49,599
uh experts

1291
00:56:56,789 --> 00:56:53,040
contacting experts is

1292
00:57:00,549 --> 00:56:56,799
always tricky because

1293
00:57:04,549 --> 00:57:02,470
experts are busy people and if you

1294
00:57:06,150 --> 00:57:04,559
contact them and say hi i'm some guy

1295
00:57:11,190 --> 00:57:06,160
you've never heard of

1296
00:57:15,750 --> 00:57:13,990
um you better make sure that question is

1297
00:57:17,750 --> 00:57:15,760
a sensible question otherwise they're

1298
00:57:21,030 --> 00:57:17,760
just never going to respond to you

1299
00:57:22,549 --> 00:57:21,040
right um or they'll respond and say oh

1300
00:57:24,829 --> 00:57:22,559
that's nice kid

1301
00:57:27,109 --> 00:57:24,839
you know clearly you don't understand a

1302
00:57:31,109 --> 00:57:27,119
thing

1303
00:57:34,069 --> 00:57:31,119
and it's both a very natural human

1304
00:57:37,349 --> 00:57:34,079
response to being busy and to

1305
00:57:39,910 --> 00:57:37,359
you know not wasting your time on

1306
00:57:41,109 --> 00:57:39,920
crack pots and of the things on the

1307
00:57:44,630 --> 00:57:41,119
other hand

1308
00:57:47,510 --> 00:57:44,640
science isn't about that

1309
00:57:50,069 --> 00:57:47,520
but usually you can find some scientist

1310
00:57:53,670 --> 00:57:52,069
is willing to answer some questions if

1311
00:57:54,710 --> 00:57:53,680
you've got good questions about their

1312
00:57:57,829 --> 00:57:54,720
work

1313
00:58:01,589 --> 00:57:57,839
yeah uh and i love google scholar

1314
00:58:03,270 --> 00:58:01,599
i use google scholar not every day but

1315
00:58:06,630 --> 00:58:03,280
certainly every week

1316
00:58:07,990 --> 00:58:06,640
i'm looking something up and that's

1317
00:58:12,230 --> 00:58:08,000
useful because you can

1318
00:58:16,549 --> 00:58:12,240
get an idea of what the world thinks

1319
00:58:19,349 --> 00:58:16,559
and for a lot of um a lot of stuff

1320
00:58:22,069 --> 00:58:19,359
it's way more current than you would

1321
00:58:25,270 --> 00:58:22,079
find in textbooks

1322
00:58:29,910 --> 00:58:25,280
now it's i mean

1323
00:58:33,829 --> 00:58:29,920
typically a physics paper doesn't use

1324
00:58:35,829 --> 00:58:33,839
mathematics that isn't in a textbook

1325
00:58:37,510 --> 00:58:35,839
it might use physics it's not a textbook

1326
00:58:38,390 --> 00:58:37,520
but not mathematics that's not in the

1327
00:58:40,950 --> 00:58:38,400
text that's correct

1328
00:58:42,390 --> 00:58:40,960
right right right right um uh and so

1329
00:58:42,950 --> 00:58:42,400
sometimes you have to go to the math

1330
00:58:45,109 --> 00:58:42,960
literature

1331
00:58:46,309 --> 00:58:45,119
then to find new math for things and

1332
00:58:50,549 --> 00:58:46,319
that

1333
00:58:53,750 --> 00:58:50,559
uh going

1334
00:58:55,510 --> 00:58:53,760
in a field to the literature is both

1335
00:58:59,510 --> 00:58:55,520
super important

1336
00:59:02,630 --> 00:58:59,520
but it's also a little challenging for

1337
00:59:05,910 --> 00:59:02,640
an outsider because

1338
00:59:09,430 --> 00:59:05,920
people will have their own

1339
00:59:10,950 --> 00:59:09,440
a field will develop its own vocabulary

1340
00:59:13,430 --> 00:59:10,960
its own things that are sort of

1341
00:59:17,510 --> 00:59:13,440
obviously everyone knows x

1342
00:59:20,710 --> 00:59:17,520
versus no they they don't know x

1343
00:59:23,430 --> 00:59:20,720
um but

1344
00:59:26,710 --> 00:59:23,440
in general i have found that there are

1345
00:59:30,829 --> 00:59:26,720
enough scientists enough experts who

1346
00:59:33,910 --> 00:59:30,839
uh i can talk to who

1347
00:59:37,349 --> 00:59:33,920
will help me

1348
00:59:40,630 --> 00:59:37,359
guide me in the right way um

1349
00:59:45,109 --> 00:59:40,640
sometimes join on as collaborators

1350
00:59:48,549 --> 00:59:45,119
um or be good at critiquing things

1351
00:59:53,030 --> 00:59:48,559
mm-hmm and so away you go from there

1352
00:59:56,390 --> 00:59:53,040
um now in the case of asteroids

1353
00:59:58,150 --> 00:59:56,400
the buy every book on amazon

1354
00:59:59,670 --> 00:59:58,160
that's on asteroids is pretty easy

1355
01:00:01,750 --> 00:59:59,680
there's not very many

1356
01:00:02,950 --> 01:00:01,760
but in that case well then you also need

1357
01:00:05,270 --> 01:00:02,960
to make sure you that you've got

1358
01:00:07,910 --> 01:00:05,280
everything understood about

1359
01:00:09,030 --> 01:00:07,920
radiative heat transfer and conductive

1360
01:00:12,549 --> 01:00:09,040
heat transfer

1361
01:00:15,990 --> 01:00:12,559
and the mechanics

1362
01:00:19,910 --> 01:00:16,000
of the engineering aspects of

1363
01:00:21,430 --> 01:00:19,920
uh telescopes and optical aspects and ir

1364
01:00:24,870 --> 01:00:21,440
telescopes in particular

1365
01:00:28,789 --> 01:00:26,950
you know eventually draws in a lot of

1366
01:00:30,390 --> 01:00:28,799
stuff so it doesn't seem like you're

1367
01:00:31,270 --> 01:00:30,400
going completely out of field because

1368
01:00:33,190 --> 01:00:31,280
when you mention

1369
01:00:34,549 --> 01:00:33,200
telescopes and conductive heat it sounds

1370
01:00:36,069 --> 01:00:34,559
like that's building on some of your

1371
01:00:38,150 --> 01:00:36,079
previous knowledge

1372
01:00:39,910 --> 01:00:38,160
is there an example of where you've gone

1373
01:00:43,589 --> 01:00:39,920
completely out of left field i don't

1374
01:00:47,990 --> 01:00:43,599
recall what the saying is um

1375
01:00:49,430 --> 01:00:48,000
well depends what you mean by completely

1376
01:00:51,109 --> 01:00:49,440
okay how about this how about this let's

1377
01:00:52,870 --> 01:00:51,119
take why don't you take me through your

1378
01:00:54,549 --> 01:00:52,880
how you would sort out this problem

1379
01:00:57,430 --> 01:00:54,559
let's say there is the

1380
01:00:58,710 --> 01:00:57,440
issue of when do we go back to

1381
01:01:01,270 --> 01:00:58,720
quote-unquote normal

1382
01:01:02,789 --> 01:01:01,280
from kovid okay so there are quite a few

1383
01:01:04,630 --> 01:01:02,799
variables to think about

1384
01:01:05,829 --> 01:01:04,640
obviously there's politics as well but

1385
01:01:08,230 --> 01:01:05,839
let's say okay

1386
01:01:09,190 --> 01:01:08,240
well what's the infection rate and how

1387
01:01:12,950 --> 01:01:09,200
effective are

1388
01:01:15,750 --> 01:01:12,960
so so how would you go about

1389
01:01:17,190 --> 01:01:15,760
solving the problem obviously we

1390
01:01:18,710 --> 01:01:17,200
mentioned you mentioned it doesn't just

1391
01:01:20,069 --> 01:01:18,720
depend on you but how would you go about

1392
01:01:23,109 --> 01:01:20,079
thinking about it i have

1393
01:01:27,109 --> 01:01:23,119
spent a lot of time working on

1394
01:01:29,270 --> 01:01:27,119
um computer models of infectious disease

1395
01:01:31,910 --> 01:01:29,280
so i'm very familiar with the state of

1396
01:01:34,710 --> 01:01:31,920
the art there in fact my company

1397
01:01:35,430 --> 01:01:34,720
uh created a whole unit of the company

1398
01:01:38,390 --> 01:01:35,440
called the

1399
01:01:39,670 --> 01:01:38,400
institute for disease modeling so in

1400
01:01:43,109 --> 01:01:39,680
that case i know

1401
01:01:46,309 --> 01:01:43,119
all about yet but

1402
01:01:49,349 --> 01:01:46,319
you don't need to have the details

1403
01:01:53,589 --> 01:01:49,359
to get the big picture

1404
01:01:56,710 --> 01:01:53,599
okay so the big picture on kovid

1405
01:02:01,109 --> 01:01:56,720
is very simple that

1406
01:02:03,750 --> 01:02:01,119
right now most people don't have it

1407
01:02:05,349 --> 01:02:03,760
okay which means most people are

1408
01:02:09,670 --> 01:02:05,359
vulnerable

1409
01:02:10,950 --> 01:02:09,680
and by most it's like 80 percent 85

1410
01:02:14,549 --> 01:02:10,960
percent

1411
01:02:20,309 --> 01:02:17,510
well if you have 85 vulnerable you will

1412
01:02:23,750 --> 01:02:20,319
have another wave

1413
01:02:24,950 --> 01:02:23,760
okay unless you're extraordinarily lucky

1414
01:02:27,430 --> 01:02:24,960
and you're able to

1415
01:02:28,390 --> 01:02:27,440
plug every gap and do every other thing

1416
01:02:32,789 --> 01:02:28,400
but

1417
01:02:34,470 --> 01:02:32,799
that's that's an extraordinarily special

1418
01:02:37,670 --> 01:02:34,480
state of affairs

1419
01:02:38,069 --> 01:02:37,680
now the problem with diseases is they

1420
01:02:42,150 --> 01:02:38,079
grow

1421
01:02:44,470 --> 01:02:42,160
exponentially you know

1422
01:02:46,150 --> 01:02:44,480
if you get sick you can infect some

1423
01:02:48,950 --> 01:02:46,160
number of people

1424
01:02:49,670 --> 01:02:48,960
there's practical limits on how many you

1425
01:02:53,750 --> 01:02:49,680
can in

1426
01:02:56,309 --> 01:02:53,760
fact but no conceptual limit

1427
01:02:58,150 --> 01:02:56,319
well each of those can go out and do a

1428
01:02:58,950 --> 01:02:58,160
whole bunch of people and each of those

1429
01:03:03,190 --> 01:02:58,960
can do

1430
01:03:06,390 --> 01:03:03,200
and so it grows exponentially and

1431
01:03:08,230 --> 01:03:06,400
to get rid of a disease you have to make

1432
01:03:11,029 --> 01:03:08,240
sure that its

1433
01:03:13,270 --> 01:03:11,039
growth factor is negative so it dies

1434
01:03:17,029 --> 01:03:13,280
exponentially

1435
01:03:20,950 --> 01:03:17,039
but there's a tremendous

1436
01:03:22,549 --> 01:03:20,960
amount of evidence that most countries

1437
01:03:25,990 --> 01:03:22,559
in the world

1438
01:03:30,069 --> 01:03:26,000
are unable to have

1439
01:03:33,430 --> 01:03:30,079
a locks down enough society

1440
01:03:38,150 --> 01:03:36,470
so it was

1441
01:03:42,390 --> 01:03:38,160
it's a little annoying to me when you

1442
01:03:48,150 --> 01:03:44,309
do a very normal human thing which is to

1443
01:03:51,670 --> 01:03:48,160
criticize folks that did it poorly

1444
01:03:55,750 --> 01:03:51,680
but in fact it's extremely hard

1445
01:03:57,750 --> 01:03:55,760
to do your reopening right

1446
01:04:00,390 --> 01:03:57,760
this oh my god we're shocked there's a

1447
01:04:02,309 --> 01:04:00,400
second wave

1448
01:04:04,150 --> 01:04:02,319
hello of course there was going to be a

1449
01:04:05,510 --> 01:04:04,160
second wave oh my god there's a new

1450
01:04:09,349 --> 01:04:05,520
strain

1451
01:04:12,950 --> 01:04:09,359
well you're lucky it took this long

1452
01:04:16,309 --> 01:04:12,960
viruses particularly rna viruses

1453
01:04:18,309 --> 01:04:16,319
are messy replicators they mutate like

1454
01:04:21,589 --> 01:04:18,319
crazy

1455
01:04:24,950 --> 01:04:21,599
so we have been lucky that covet

1456
01:04:29,670 --> 01:04:24,960
hasn't mutated more than it does

1457
01:04:33,430 --> 01:04:29,680
right right right and okay china

1458
01:04:35,670 --> 01:04:33,440
maybe south korea you can say there's

1459
01:04:37,990 --> 01:04:35,680
a couple people that you know did it

1460
01:04:41,510 --> 01:04:38,000
right

1461
01:04:44,150 --> 01:04:41,520
most other places a lot of other places

1462
01:04:47,589 --> 01:04:44,160
for a while thought oh we did it right

1463
01:04:50,630 --> 01:04:47,599
look at us we have low rates

1464
01:04:51,430 --> 01:04:50,640
and then they got another wave as they

1465
01:04:54,710 --> 01:04:51,440
were

1466
01:04:57,589 --> 01:04:54,720
going to get the other wave okay um

1467
01:04:59,829 --> 01:04:57,599
that's the other thing that is hard for

1468
01:05:00,150 --> 01:04:59,839
people to accept about something that's

1469
01:05:03,270 --> 01:05:00,160
so

1470
01:05:06,870 --> 01:05:03,280
important is that luck makes

1471
01:05:12,870 --> 01:05:10,549
okay so we know about a variety of super

1472
01:05:16,549 --> 01:05:12,880
spreader events

1473
01:05:18,950 --> 01:05:16,559
um early in the epidemic there was some

1474
01:05:20,150 --> 01:05:18,960
birthday party in connecticut i think

1475
01:05:23,349 --> 01:05:20,160
that

1476
01:05:24,710 --> 01:05:23,359
30 or 40 people got infected and went

1477
01:05:26,710 --> 01:05:24,720
all over the place even in different

1478
01:05:31,750 --> 01:05:26,720
countries

1479
01:05:37,510 --> 01:05:35,829
that specific thing is bad luck

1480
01:05:39,109 --> 01:05:37,520
you couldn't have predicted up front

1481
01:05:42,630 --> 01:05:39,119
this will happen in

1482
01:05:44,309 --> 01:05:42,640
connecticut um

1483
01:05:46,230 --> 01:05:44,319
you could predict that it'll happen

1484
01:05:49,270 --> 01:05:46,240
somewhere

1485
01:05:51,190 --> 01:05:49,280
and there were places who for a variety

1486
01:05:54,309 --> 01:05:51,200
of reasons

1487
01:05:57,910 --> 01:05:56,630
and yet they pat themselves in their

1488
01:06:00,710 --> 01:05:57,920
back and they go yeah that's because we

1489
01:06:03,430 --> 01:06:00,720
were so damn smart

1490
01:06:04,710 --> 01:06:03,440
and there were places that were unlucky

1491
01:06:07,670 --> 01:06:04,720
now they were unlucky

1492
01:06:08,950 --> 01:06:07,680
and they weren't doing a perfect job but

1493
01:06:11,990 --> 01:06:08,960
if you look back and say how many

1494
01:06:15,029 --> 01:06:12,000
countries did a perfect job of this

1495
01:06:17,990 --> 01:06:15,039
um we can't really tell

1496
01:06:21,109 --> 01:06:18,000
until it's in retrospect but china has

1497
01:06:25,029 --> 01:06:21,119
done a very good job of containment

1498
01:06:26,549 --> 01:06:25,039
saying arguably south korea has

1499
01:06:28,390 --> 01:06:26,559
and i'm sure you could come up with a

1500
01:06:32,309 --> 01:06:28,400
few other also rams and

1501
01:06:35,990 --> 01:06:32,319
and others um

1502
01:06:40,150 --> 01:06:37,910
you know italy was an interesting

1503
01:06:42,470 --> 01:06:40,160
example italy

1504
01:06:43,190 --> 01:06:42,480
the worst part of the first wave of the

1505
01:06:46,789 --> 01:06:43,200
epidemic

1506
01:06:49,029 --> 01:06:46,799
was all in the north of italy

1507
01:06:52,150 --> 01:06:49,039
which is not what most people would

1508
01:06:56,150 --> 01:06:54,309
because the health care system it's

1509
01:06:58,150 --> 01:06:56,160
widely believed

1510
01:06:59,589 --> 01:06:58,160
in italy and elsewhere that the health

1511
01:07:02,630 --> 01:06:59,599
care system

1512
01:07:06,390 --> 01:07:02,640
in the south is not as good

1513
01:07:09,109 --> 01:07:06,400
and that's a quantifiable thing it's

1514
01:07:10,549 --> 01:07:09,119
number of hospital beds and so on and so

1515
01:07:14,789 --> 01:07:10,559
forth

1516
01:07:17,270 --> 01:07:14,799
um so oddly

1517
01:07:18,789 --> 01:07:17,280
italy got sickest where their healthcare

1518
01:07:20,710 --> 01:07:18,799
was the strongest

1519
01:07:22,630 --> 01:07:20,720
now in a way that's really good because

1520
01:07:24,230 --> 01:07:22,640
at least they had some hope

1521
01:07:26,829 --> 01:07:24,240
and you're saying that's based on luck

1522
01:07:30,230 --> 01:07:26,839
in that example

1523
01:07:33,910 --> 01:07:30,240
well it's it's probably based

1524
01:07:37,190 --> 01:07:33,920
on the other thing the north is good

1525
01:07:40,549 --> 01:07:37,200
is known for which is the north of italy

1526
01:07:41,109 --> 01:07:40,559
is the industrial part of italy and they

1527
01:07:44,789 --> 01:07:41,119
have

1528
01:07:48,309 --> 01:07:44,799
the largest exports

1529
01:07:54,150 --> 01:07:48,319
and it's very likely that it was

1530
01:07:57,109 --> 01:07:54,160
people um in china on business

1531
01:07:58,549 --> 01:07:57,119
that brought it back to the rokkovic

1532
01:08:02,069 --> 01:07:58,559
back to

1533
01:08:05,829 --> 01:08:02,079
uh to the north of italy and

1534
01:08:09,190 --> 01:08:05,839
then from italy to new york because the

1535
01:08:10,150 --> 01:08:09,200
current um understanding is that the new

1536
01:08:13,750 --> 01:08:10,160
york epidemic

1537
01:08:17,910 --> 01:08:13,760
really was gotten from western europe

1538
01:08:20,390 --> 01:08:17,920
and italy in particular um

1539
01:08:25,349 --> 01:08:20,400
unlike in seattle where it was directly

1540
01:08:28,309 --> 01:08:25,359
uh directly people from china

1541
01:08:29,269 --> 01:08:28,319
so you know it i wouldn't you might not

1542
01:08:32,470 --> 01:08:29,279
say it was

1543
01:08:34,950 --> 01:08:32,480
luck pure luck because there might be a

1544
01:08:36,950 --> 01:08:34,960
factor like oh if you have

1545
01:08:39,349 --> 01:08:36,960
lots of industry in that industry

1546
01:08:41,669 --> 01:08:39,359
manufactures things in china

1547
01:08:43,510 --> 01:08:41,679
you're going to have a lot of engineers

1548
01:08:45,669 --> 01:08:43,520
and product managers and other people

1549
01:08:48,870 --> 01:08:45,679
going back and forth

1550
01:08:49,829 --> 01:08:48,880
so maybe calling that luck is too strong

1551
01:08:52,309 --> 01:08:49,839
a word

1552
01:08:53,269 --> 01:08:52,319
but it's not got anything to do with

1553
01:08:55,749 --> 01:08:53,279
your

1554
01:08:57,269 --> 01:08:55,759
medical system it's not got anything to

1555
01:08:59,910 --> 01:08:57,279
do with your hygiene it's

1556
01:09:02,309 --> 01:08:59,920
nothing to do with with that what about

1557
01:09:08,709 --> 01:09:02,319
government

1558
01:09:11,910 --> 01:09:08,719
you can find lots of instances where

1559
01:09:15,110 --> 01:09:11,920
the governments have done a

1560
01:09:16,870 --> 01:09:15,120
better job or a worse job

1561
01:09:21,430 --> 01:09:16,880
nathan you're in charge of the us right

1562
01:09:23,189 --> 01:09:21,440
now okay it's not guidance

1563
01:09:24,709 --> 01:09:23,199
you're in charge and my country canada

1564
01:09:28,149 --> 01:09:24,719
so what do you advise

1565
01:09:31,829 --> 01:09:28,159
canada and the us to do

1566
01:09:35,030 --> 01:09:31,839
well i really want to take more snow

1567
01:09:37,110 --> 01:09:35,040
off like pictures and i can't go to here

1568
01:09:40,149 --> 01:09:37,120
i doubt i'll be allowed to go this

1569
01:09:43,189 --> 01:09:40,159
winter so that pisses me off

1570
01:09:46,470 --> 01:09:43,199
but uh well the

1571
01:09:48,789 --> 01:09:46,480
only way all of the

1572
01:09:51,910 --> 01:09:48,799
kinds of shutdowns and things we've done

1573
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:57,110
have mostly been uh

1574
01:10:01,189 --> 01:09:59,189
it was a fascinating question that would

1575
01:10:03,669 --> 01:10:01,199
require lots of detail analysis to say

1576
01:10:05,270 --> 01:10:03,679
was it worth it

1577
01:10:07,270 --> 01:10:05,280
there certainly is a point of view that

1578
01:10:10,550 --> 01:10:07,280
says

1579
01:10:14,830 --> 01:10:10,560
if you could have walked the talk

1580
01:10:16,870 --> 01:10:14,840
and really buckled down like the chinese

1581
01:10:20,070 --> 01:10:16,880
did great

1582
01:10:21,990 --> 01:10:20,080
but if you can't do that doing a

1583
01:10:25,510 --> 01:10:22,000
half-assed job is probably

1584
01:10:28,630 --> 01:10:25,520
worse than doing nothing interesting or

1585
01:10:29,030 --> 01:10:28,640
it it gives you a double dose of bad

1586
01:10:30,470 --> 01:10:29,040
things

1587
01:10:32,709 --> 01:10:30,480
wait why is it worse because of its

1588
01:10:34,229 --> 01:10:32,719
effect on the economy huge effect on the

1589
01:10:38,870 --> 01:10:34,239
economy

1590
01:10:41,189 --> 01:10:38,880
affects health outcomes in people's

1591
01:10:45,350 --> 01:10:41,199
lives

1592
01:10:48,550 --> 01:10:45,360
so you can't really separate the two

1593
01:10:50,310 --> 01:10:48,560
super cleanly you can it

1594
01:10:51,990 --> 01:10:50,320
you know because i hear some people say

1595
01:10:53,270 --> 01:10:52,000
yeah you're prioritizing the economy

1596
01:10:54,550 --> 01:10:53,280
over people's lives but what you're

1597
01:10:56,149 --> 01:10:54,560
saying is that they're inextricably

1598
01:10:59,510 --> 01:10:56,159
linked

1599
01:11:02,709 --> 01:10:59,520
many parts of the world they are

1600
01:11:05,110 --> 01:11:02,719
uh and it

1601
01:11:06,149 --> 01:11:05,120
it's a it's an interesting question that

1602
01:11:08,149 --> 01:11:06,159
we'll have to ask

1603
01:11:09,830 --> 01:11:08,159
answer after the fact would we have been

1604
01:11:15,110 --> 01:11:09,840
better off

1605
01:11:21,430 --> 01:11:18,149
but really meaning it

1606
01:11:24,470 --> 01:11:21,440
like okay you are arrested or

1607
01:11:25,669 --> 01:11:24,480
i don't want to say shot on site but you

1608
01:11:29,270 --> 01:11:25,679
don't want to say it

1609
01:11:32,550 --> 01:11:29,280
tased on sight if you don't ask

1610
01:11:33,669 --> 01:11:32,560
but don't go through a whole bunch of

1611
01:11:36,390 --> 01:11:33,679
the other

1612
01:11:39,750 --> 01:11:36,400
silly things and you know here in

1613
01:11:46,709 --> 01:11:43,430
we had a i think a very well-meaning

1614
01:11:48,550 --> 01:11:46,719
government but you have the problem that

1615
01:11:49,669 --> 01:11:48,560
policymakers don't really know what to

1616
01:11:50,709 --> 01:11:49,679
do

1617
01:11:53,630 --> 01:11:50,719
because they haven't been in this

1618
01:11:59,030 --> 01:11:53,640
situation before

1619
01:12:06,070 --> 01:12:03,110
have not always given great advice or

1620
01:12:08,390 --> 01:12:06,080
they have allowed themselves to be

1621
01:12:11,030 --> 01:12:08,400
talked down

1622
01:12:11,990 --> 01:12:11,040
in weird ways so for example when the

1623
01:12:13,750 --> 01:12:12,000
thing first came out

1624
01:12:15,830 --> 01:12:13,760
oh we're going to ban all meetings of

1625
01:12:18,390 --> 01:12:15,840
more than 100 people

1626
01:12:20,950 --> 01:12:18,400
oh wait wait did i say 100 i meant 10.

1627
01:12:24,709 --> 01:12:20,960
oh did i say 10 i meant

1628
01:12:28,709 --> 01:12:24,719
[\h__\h] about somebody

1629
01:12:30,790 --> 01:12:28,719
with lots of well-meaning intentions

1630
01:12:32,310 --> 01:12:30,800
saying oh wait do we really have to

1631
01:12:35,270 --> 01:12:32,320
scrap

1632
01:12:36,189 --> 01:12:35,280
you know groups of 10 people and the

1633
01:12:39,750 --> 01:12:36,199
answer

1634
01:12:43,030 --> 01:12:39,760
epidemiologically was always two

1635
01:12:46,709 --> 01:12:43,040
don't allow two if everyone's alone

1636
01:12:48,550 --> 01:12:46,719
they can't transmit and then okay people

1637
01:12:49,990 --> 01:12:48,560
are gonna live with their families and

1638
01:12:52,950 --> 01:12:50,000
we're not to fix that

1639
01:12:54,310 --> 01:12:52,960
so don't expand it that was the right

1640
01:12:57,830 --> 01:12:54,320
answer

1641
01:12:59,750 --> 01:12:57,840
but you go through this thing of

1642
01:13:01,270 --> 01:12:59,760
saying something and changing it and

1643
01:13:03,669 --> 01:13:01,280
changing it and each one of those things

1644
01:13:05,430 --> 01:13:03,679
was a damn lie

1645
01:13:07,910 --> 01:13:05,440
the you go through another thing where

1646
01:13:09,189 --> 01:13:07,920
people and they're lying because

1647
01:13:11,030 --> 01:13:09,199
they don't feel like people will listen

1648
01:13:11,350 --> 01:13:11,040
if you say keep your social circle to

1649
01:13:13,189 --> 01:13:11,360
two

1650
01:13:14,630 --> 01:13:13,199
or because of some other reason i think

1651
01:13:21,510 --> 01:13:14,640
it sounded too

1652
01:13:25,430 --> 01:13:22,630
there's a lot of people say oh you're

1653
01:13:27,430 --> 01:13:25,440
overreacting you're overreacting you're

1654
01:13:29,189 --> 01:13:27,440
overreacting

1655
01:13:30,870 --> 01:13:29,199
also i heard in the beginning that who

1656
01:13:33,189 --> 01:13:30,880
said that masks were counter effective

1657
01:13:36,310 --> 01:13:33,199
well so

1658
01:13:42,390 --> 01:13:36,320
yes this was a great example

1659
01:13:46,390 --> 01:13:42,400
of well-meaning people

1660
01:13:50,709 --> 01:13:46,400
saying [\h__\h] that was wrong

1661
01:13:52,229 --> 01:13:50,719
and you could eat in some cases

1662
01:13:54,229 --> 01:13:52,239
they couldn't help saying things are

1663
01:13:57,510 --> 01:13:54,239
wrong because we didn't know

1664
01:13:59,350 --> 01:13:57,520
but in in that case the mask thing was

1665
01:14:01,030 --> 01:13:59,360
horrifically stupid they had people

1666
01:14:02,950 --> 01:14:01,040
saying

1667
01:14:04,870 --> 01:14:02,960
literally oh it doesn't matter because

1668
01:14:05,830 --> 01:14:04,880
viruses are so tiny they'll go through

1669
01:14:10,870 --> 01:14:05,840
any

1670
01:14:12,950 --> 01:14:10,880
hole but you're not spewing pure viruses

1671
01:14:13,990 --> 01:14:12,960
so who the [\h__\h] thought that was a good

1672
01:14:17,510 --> 01:14:14,000
thing you're

1673
01:14:19,669 --> 01:14:17,520
spitting okay and

1674
01:14:21,030 --> 01:14:19,679
if you have if you wear one of those

1675
01:14:24,310 --> 01:14:21,040
face masks

1676
01:14:26,630 --> 01:14:24,320
plastic face mask wear one even just

1677
01:14:28,630 --> 01:14:26,640
around the house for a little bit

1678
01:14:30,149 --> 01:14:28,640
and see how filthy it gets near your

1679
01:14:32,630 --> 01:14:30,159
mouth it's gross

1680
01:14:33,590 --> 01:14:32,640
but you're spitting all the time that's

1681
01:14:37,030 --> 01:14:33,600
how we

1682
01:14:37,990 --> 01:14:37,040
speak i see i see then there was a whole

1683
01:14:41,189 --> 01:14:38,000
set of other

1684
01:14:43,270 --> 01:14:41,199
weird political in uh there's a point

1685
01:14:47,110 --> 01:14:43,280
where

1686
01:14:49,030 --> 01:14:47,120
uh in washington state it was okay

1687
01:14:51,350 --> 01:14:49,040
to go golfing but you couldn't go

1688
01:14:53,910 --> 01:14:51,360
fishing

1689
01:14:54,790 --> 01:14:53,920
well that was some political [\h__\h]

1690
01:14:58,310 --> 01:14:54,800
i'm sorry

1691
01:15:01,350 --> 01:14:58,320
there was no science that says

1692
01:15:05,030 --> 01:15:01,360
oh there's this then you also have

1693
01:15:08,830 --> 01:15:05,040
the scientists i have to say are also at

1694
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:12,470
because

1695
01:15:19,110 --> 01:15:15,590
there wasn't enough thinking about okay

1696
01:15:22,550 --> 01:15:19,120
is something worth doing at the level

1697
01:15:27,350 --> 01:15:22,560
we could actually do it

1698
01:15:30,229 --> 01:15:27,360
right so if we it's clearly the case

1699
01:15:30,630 --> 01:15:30,239
that if the us and canada could have

1700
01:15:34,149 --> 01:15:30,640
done

1701
01:15:38,870 --> 01:15:34,159
what china did it would be way better

1702
01:15:42,630 --> 01:15:38,880
for both the uh economy

1703
01:15:45,830 --> 01:15:42,640
and for the number of people killed

1704
01:15:51,590 --> 01:15:45,840
okay the the us has vastly more people

1705
01:15:59,350 --> 01:15:55,669
but the fact is we couldn't do that

1706
01:16:01,750 --> 01:15:59,360
and given that you can't do it

1707
01:16:05,910 --> 01:16:01,760
and even you could argue well we didn't

1708
01:16:07,669 --> 01:16:05,920
know how incompetent we were up front

1709
01:16:09,189 --> 01:16:07,679
maybe

1710
01:16:10,950 --> 01:16:09,199
but i mean you say we didn't have enough

1711
01:16:12,229 --> 01:16:10,960
data about the virus or the people

1712
01:16:14,390 --> 01:16:12,239
involved in policymaking were

1713
01:16:16,950 --> 01:16:14,400
incompetent

1714
01:16:19,669 --> 01:16:16,960
well no but look you're never going to

1715
01:16:22,790 --> 01:16:19,679
get 100 compliance in anything

1716
01:16:24,390 --> 01:16:22,800
right like we all have laws about

1717
01:16:26,390 --> 01:16:24,400
speeding

1718
01:16:27,510 --> 01:16:26,400
yet virtually everyone who's ever driven

1719
01:16:29,430 --> 01:16:27,520
a car

1720
01:16:30,870 --> 01:16:29,440
has broken one of those laws at some

1721
01:16:34,229 --> 01:16:30,880
point in time it's

1722
01:16:37,910 --> 01:16:34,239
almost none of us get caught right

1723
01:16:38,390 --> 01:16:37,920
and we tr we use those laws to try to

1724
01:16:42,630 --> 01:16:38,400
get

1725
01:16:50,550 --> 01:16:45,910
but if we had something that depended

1726
01:16:53,110 --> 01:16:50,560
critically on us following traffic laws

1727
01:16:54,070 --> 01:16:53,120
we would be [\h__\h] right because we

1728
01:16:59,110 --> 01:16:54,080
cannot

1729
01:17:03,030 --> 01:16:59,120
bring ourselves to obey traffic laws

1730
01:17:04,950 --> 01:17:03,040
it's just a damn fact i you can

1731
01:17:07,110 --> 01:17:04,960
maybe someone could come up with some

1732
01:17:09,350 --> 01:17:07,120
way to make that occur but we

1733
01:17:10,870 --> 01:17:09,360
so china was able to go do it south

1734
01:17:11,590 --> 01:17:10,880
korea seems to be able to do it and

1735
01:17:15,510 --> 01:17:11,600
they're

1736
01:17:17,910 --> 01:17:15,520
a much more free society than china

1737
01:17:19,510 --> 01:17:17,920
um they still have a right sorry to

1738
01:17:21,430 --> 01:17:19,520
interrupt was china able to quote

1739
01:17:23,270 --> 01:17:21,440
unquote do it because they have a larger

1740
01:17:25,030 --> 01:17:23,280
enforcement mechanism such as they will

1741
01:17:25,910 --> 01:17:25,040
shoot you or they will tase you in your

1742
01:17:29,030 --> 01:17:25,920
previous example

1743
01:17:32,310 --> 01:17:29,040
or is it something else well

1744
01:17:37,189 --> 01:17:32,320
or the obedience of the population well

1745
01:17:45,189 --> 01:17:41,510
the the way we have a law-abiding

1746
01:17:48,070 --> 01:17:45,199
society is through a combination

1747
01:17:49,669 --> 01:17:48,080
of catching the people who break the

1748
01:17:52,870 --> 01:17:49,679
laws

1749
01:17:56,830 --> 01:17:52,880
but mostly providing an incentive to

1750
01:17:56,840 --> 01:18:01,590
right so uh

1751
01:18:05,669 --> 01:18:04,390
who is it because the chinese were

1752
01:18:09,030 --> 01:18:05,679
conditioned

1753
01:18:10,550 --> 01:18:09,040
to do what they're told or because the

1754
01:18:11,750 --> 01:18:10,560
threat there was threat of punishment

1755
01:18:13,910 --> 01:18:11,760
but wasn't that thriller

1756
01:18:15,350 --> 01:18:13,920
i mean i don't know you didn't separate

1757
01:18:19,990 --> 01:18:15,360
those two things

1758
01:18:24,149 --> 01:18:22,630
i can't totally remember the name of the

1759
01:18:26,310 --> 01:18:24,159
movie but it was a

1760
01:18:28,709 --> 01:18:26,320
sort of a comedic western movie where

1761
01:18:31,750 --> 01:18:28,719
this guy is given the

1762
01:18:33,669 --> 01:18:31,760
um is made sheriff he's given the star

1763
01:18:34,709 --> 01:18:33,679
of the former sheriff that is this big

1764
01:18:37,830 --> 01:18:34,719
dent unit

1765
01:18:39,189 --> 01:18:37,840
due to a bullet and the guy says well at

1766
01:18:46,950 --> 01:18:39,199
least this

1767
01:18:49,430 --> 01:18:46,960
was badge saved my predecessor

1768
01:18:50,709 --> 01:18:49,440
and guy giving it to him says well it

1769
01:18:52,950 --> 01:18:50,719
would have if it wasn't for all the

1770
01:18:56,470 --> 01:18:52,960
other bullets

1771
01:19:00,149 --> 01:18:56,480
right i mean it if you

1772
01:19:03,270 --> 01:19:00,159
if you sent the police out or you sent

1773
01:19:05,910 --> 01:19:03,280
the soldiers out with

1774
01:19:09,510 --> 01:19:05,920
something the size of my cell phone that

1775
01:19:12,550 --> 01:19:09,520
was completely bulletproof

1776
01:19:13,350 --> 01:19:12,560
it wouldn't be worth doing even if it

1777
01:19:16,149 --> 01:19:13,360
was perfect

1778
01:19:16,709 --> 01:19:16,159
where it was yeah there's too many other

1779
01:19:20,390 --> 01:19:16,719
holes

1780
01:19:23,510 --> 01:19:20,400
in the armor it's pointless

1781
01:19:26,790 --> 01:19:23,520
it's not worth anything it's true and

1782
01:19:30,790 --> 01:19:26,800
i i think that that is what

1783
01:19:34,470 --> 01:19:30,800
occurred in the covet response

1784
01:19:37,510 --> 01:19:34,480
of most of the countries in the world

1785
01:19:42,229 --> 01:19:37,520
they either enacted half

1786
01:19:45,669 --> 01:19:42,239
steps that could never could have worked

1787
01:19:46,470 --> 01:19:45,679
or they enacted ones that should have

1788
01:19:48,630 --> 01:19:46,480
worked

1789
01:19:49,990 --> 01:19:48,640
but they couldn't walk the talk they

1790
01:19:53,350 --> 01:19:50,000
couldn't actually

1791
01:19:55,430 --> 01:19:53,360
have enough compliance or

1792
01:19:57,110 --> 01:19:55,440
they waited until it was too late to do

1793
01:19:58,790 --> 01:19:57,120
that and exactly

1794
01:20:01,110 --> 01:19:58,800
and you probably come up with five other

1795
01:20:04,550 --> 01:20:01,120
reasons so i don't claim i know

1796
01:20:09,189 --> 01:20:04,560
all of the exact mistakes yeah

1797
01:20:09,990 --> 01:20:09,199
but it's when you have an exponentially

1798
01:20:13,030 --> 01:20:10,000
growing

1799
01:20:16,790 --> 01:20:13,040
thing it requires a

1800
01:20:20,709 --> 01:20:16,800
fanatical approach to try

1801
01:20:23,430 --> 01:20:20,719
to eliminate the disease

1802
01:20:25,189 --> 01:20:23,440
and we know that that's true from cases

1803
01:20:28,550 --> 01:20:25,199
where they eliminated

1804
01:20:29,750 --> 01:20:28,560
a malaria within a region we've never

1805
01:20:31,830 --> 01:20:29,760
done it for the whole earth

1806
01:20:33,030 --> 01:20:31,840
but we've done it in regions we know

1807
01:20:36,149 --> 01:20:33,040
that that was the case

1808
01:20:39,990 --> 01:20:36,159
with smallpox

1809
01:20:43,350 --> 01:20:40,000
but in smallpox we had a vaccine

1810
01:20:44,229 --> 01:20:43,360
so anyway it was very clear to me early

1811
01:20:46,070 --> 01:20:44,239
on

1812
01:20:48,149 --> 01:20:46,080
that we're just basically [\h__\h] until

1813
01:20:51,430 --> 01:20:48,159
we get a vaccine

1814
01:20:54,470 --> 01:20:51,440
and it is worth going through

1815
01:20:56,390 --> 01:20:54,480
the various things some certainly it's

1816
01:20:58,470 --> 01:20:56,400
worth wearing masks

1817
01:20:59,750 --> 01:20:58,480
i believe that all along the current

1818
01:21:01,510 --> 01:20:59,760
belief is it's true

1819
01:21:03,030 --> 01:21:01,520
but we went through a phase of denying

1820
01:21:05,669 --> 01:21:03,040
that it was good for masks

1821
01:21:10,070 --> 01:21:05,679
or saying oh masks aren't good for you

1822
01:21:13,189 --> 01:21:11,510
now what about that is there any truth

1823
01:21:15,030 --> 01:21:13,199
to that

1824
01:21:17,350 --> 01:21:15,040
that's not what the latest research

1825
01:21:21,110 --> 01:21:17,360
shows

1826
01:21:24,229 --> 01:21:21,120
because fundamentally why do i never

1827
01:21:25,910 --> 01:21:24,239
sorry your spit and you don't want to

1828
01:21:30,070 --> 01:21:25,920
breathe my spit

1829
01:21:33,590 --> 01:21:30,080
yep and the whole point of these masks

1830
01:21:36,870 --> 01:21:33,600
is to reduce the amount of spit transfer

1831
01:21:41,430 --> 01:21:36,880
now it's not cutting it to zero

1832
01:21:44,950 --> 01:21:41,440
but we're reducing it and statistically

1833
01:21:47,990 --> 01:21:44,960
that means that there are people who

1834
01:21:50,870 --> 01:21:48,000
if in fact you were you know

1835
01:21:53,510 --> 01:21:50,880
locked in an elevator with someone for

1836
01:21:56,470 --> 01:21:53,520
48 hours

1837
01:21:58,390 --> 01:21:56,480
you know unless you had scuba tanks with

1838
01:22:00,229 --> 01:21:58,400
separate air systems

1839
01:22:02,550 --> 01:22:00,239
i don't know how you're going to avoid

1840
01:22:06,070 --> 01:22:02,560
some contagion

1841
01:22:08,310 --> 01:22:06,080
but for a lot of things

1842
01:22:10,470 --> 01:22:08,320
the mass would have worked but it also

1843
01:22:11,910 --> 01:22:10,480
undermined mask making you have people

1844
01:22:14,950 --> 01:22:11,920
think

1845
01:22:17,669 --> 01:22:14,960
it'd be much better from a compliance

1846
01:22:21,189 --> 01:22:17,679
perspective to tell people

1847
01:22:24,390 --> 01:22:21,199
oh this is all for you buddy

1848
01:22:27,590 --> 01:22:24,400
do it for yourself if your friends

1849
01:22:28,550 --> 01:22:27,600
don't want to do it fine you can cry at

1850
01:22:31,170 --> 01:22:28,560
their funeral

1851
01:22:33,189 --> 01:22:31,180
present the other way around

1852
01:22:36,629 --> 01:22:33,199
[Music]

1853
01:22:41,830 --> 01:22:36,639
so anyway uh i think that

1854
01:22:45,270 --> 01:22:41,840
the vaccine is the only thing that

1855
01:22:48,229 --> 01:22:45,280
given our general lack

1856
01:22:50,149 --> 01:22:48,239
of ability to control it with lockdowns

1857
01:22:53,669 --> 01:22:50,159
and

1858
01:22:57,430 --> 01:22:53,679
we've tried in canada

1859
01:22:59,110 --> 01:22:57,440
and the us and all of europe and

1860
01:23:02,390 --> 01:22:59,120
essentially every other country except

1861
01:23:05,510 --> 01:23:02,400
china nobody's gotten

1862
01:23:06,950 --> 01:23:05,520
and south korea south korea nobody has

1863
01:23:09,270 --> 01:23:06,960
gotten a line on this so

1864
01:23:10,709 --> 01:23:09,280
obviously it's the vaccine that's our

1865
01:23:12,310 --> 01:23:10,719
next hope

1866
01:23:14,229 --> 01:23:12,320
you mentioned south korea but they don't

1867
01:23:15,189 --> 01:23:14,239
have the same authoritarian government

1868
01:23:19,110 --> 01:23:15,199
as china so

1869
01:23:19,120 --> 01:23:23,669
well um

1870
01:23:30,070 --> 01:23:26,950
i don't know uh

1871
01:23:31,189 --> 01:23:30,080
i i have friends who are korean or of

1872
01:23:35,430 --> 01:23:31,199
korean

1873
01:23:38,550 --> 01:23:35,440
background who would say oh actually

1874
01:23:42,790 --> 01:23:38,560
it may not be as authoritarian

1875
01:23:46,070 --> 01:23:42,800
but koreans have a very strong

1876
01:23:48,470 --> 01:23:46,080
sense of community and being gung-ho

1877
01:23:50,550 --> 01:23:48,480
interesting and cultural difference and

1878
01:23:53,750 --> 01:23:50,560
that there was a cultural difference

1879
01:23:57,430 --> 01:23:53,760
that they were more likely to follow

1880
01:24:00,470 --> 01:23:57,440
the rules now they also tested up the

1881
01:24:07,590 --> 01:24:03,750
we didn't do [\h__\h] for testing here yeah

1882
01:24:11,270 --> 01:24:07,600
and still barely don't

1883
01:24:13,270 --> 01:24:11,280
well how the hell are you going to stop

1884
01:24:15,350 --> 01:24:13,280
this exponential spread thing

1885
01:24:19,910 --> 01:24:15,360
if you can't identify who the hell has

1886
01:24:23,910 --> 01:24:22,310
anyway so this stage our only hope is

1887
01:24:27,830 --> 01:24:23,920
the vaccine

1888
01:24:30,470 --> 01:24:27,840
and we have to get it rolled out to

1889
01:24:31,750 --> 01:24:30,480
essentially everybody as soon as

1890
01:24:34,870 --> 01:24:31,760
possible now

1891
01:24:38,149 --> 01:24:34,880
there's a word that's been bandied

1892
01:24:41,350 --> 01:24:38,159
about called herd immunity

1893
01:24:44,470 --> 01:24:41,360
and herd immunity is a real feature of a

1894
01:24:47,910 --> 01:24:44,480
mathematical model of a disease

1895
01:24:51,590 --> 01:24:47,920
which basically states

1896
01:24:56,550 --> 01:24:51,600
if enough people get it

1897
01:25:02,629 --> 01:24:59,830
then it's hard for the disease to spread

1898
01:25:04,470 --> 01:25:02,639
because if you have it but almost

1899
01:25:08,149 --> 01:25:04,480
everyone you run into

1900
01:25:11,669 --> 01:25:08,159
is immune then

1901
01:25:11,990 --> 01:25:11,679
you will resolve as doctors say that

1902
01:25:15,270 --> 01:25:12,000
means

1903
01:25:16,470 --> 01:25:15,280
either get better or die you will

1904
01:25:19,189 --> 01:25:16,480
resolve

1905
01:25:21,270 --> 01:25:19,199
and or at least stop being stop

1906
01:25:25,510 --> 01:25:21,280
transmitting

1907
01:25:27,270 --> 01:25:25,520
before you reach a vulnerable person

1908
01:25:28,790 --> 01:25:27,280
it's one of the ways to think about an

1909
01:25:30,629 --> 01:25:28,800
infectious disease

1910
01:25:32,310 --> 01:25:30,639
so you mean to say in hurt immunity that

1911
01:25:33,910 --> 01:25:32,320
if enough healthy people get it so that

1912
01:25:34,550 --> 01:25:33,920
they survive and then they become immune

1913
01:25:38,390 --> 01:25:34,560
to it

1914
01:25:40,790 --> 01:25:38,400
well you need to have immune people

1915
01:25:42,310 --> 01:25:40,800
okay now the through vaccination right

1916
01:25:46,310 --> 01:25:42,320
here of getting effect

1917
01:25:50,070 --> 01:25:46,320
of this well there's two ways there's

1918
01:25:52,870 --> 01:25:50,080
recovered people because for almost

1919
01:25:53,350 --> 01:25:52,880
every disease in the world infectious

1920
01:25:56,229 --> 01:25:53,360
disease

1921
01:25:57,830 --> 01:25:56,239
i should say you get some amount of

1922
01:26:02,229 --> 01:25:57,840
immunity

1923
01:26:05,430 --> 01:26:02,239
after you've had it um

1924
01:26:09,910 --> 01:26:05,440
malaria has the least immunity

1925
01:26:13,430 --> 01:26:11,910
or you don't get it as strongly or

1926
01:26:17,110 --> 01:26:13,440
there's a variety of other

1927
01:26:19,990 --> 01:26:17,120
things so basically

1928
01:26:21,030 --> 01:26:20,000
once you have society either recover

1929
01:26:24,870 --> 01:26:21,040
from that

1930
01:26:25,669 --> 01:26:24,880
or get vaccinated then you can stop it

1931
01:26:27,990 --> 01:26:25,679
but people

1932
01:26:29,590 --> 01:26:28,000
started talking about herd immunity when

1933
01:26:32,470 --> 01:26:29,600
five percent of the country

1934
01:26:35,430 --> 01:26:32,480
was infected or two percent was infected

1935
01:26:39,350 --> 01:26:35,440
and that was just absurd

1936
01:26:41,669 --> 01:26:39,360
and it was somebody working really hard

1937
01:26:43,430 --> 01:26:41,679
to try to find hope and say well maybe

1938
01:26:46,950 --> 01:26:43,440
maybe maybe we could

1939
01:26:49,270 --> 01:26:46,960
it's like be serious in

1940
01:26:50,950 --> 01:26:49,280
most any model you don't get to hurt

1941
01:26:54,149 --> 01:26:50,960
immunity until you get

1942
01:26:54,550 --> 01:26:54,159
well over half and usually it's more

1943
01:26:57,750 --> 01:26:54,560
like

1944
01:26:59,990 --> 01:26:57,760
three quarters so in

1945
01:27:01,430 --> 01:27:00,000
the stage when three quarters of the

1946
01:27:06,550 --> 01:27:01,440
population

1947
01:27:09,030 --> 01:27:06,560
have been rendered immune

1948
01:27:09,590 --> 01:27:09,040
then you can start to talk about her

1949
01:27:15,750 --> 01:27:09,600
immunity

1950
01:27:22,390 --> 01:27:19,270
the way you typically model diseases

1951
01:27:24,550 --> 01:27:22,400
is as if every one of us

1952
01:27:25,430 --> 01:27:24,560
might have some random possibility of

1953
01:27:29,910 --> 01:27:25,440
meeting some

1954
01:27:33,510 --> 01:27:29,920
other one of us any fine day

1955
01:27:35,430 --> 01:27:33,520
that's how the world works okay covid

1956
01:27:37,669 --> 01:27:35,440
was devastating

1957
01:27:39,350 --> 01:27:37,679
around the world what it got into

1958
01:27:42,310 --> 01:27:39,360
assisted living centers

1959
01:27:45,430 --> 01:27:42,320
and nursing homes because you're a set

1960
01:27:50,149 --> 01:27:45,440
of people that can't get away

1961
01:27:56,390 --> 01:27:53,030
and you have caregivers that work at

1962
01:28:03,510 --> 01:28:00,310
doctors nurses other caregivers

1963
01:28:07,669 --> 01:28:03,520
so once coveted got

1964
01:28:12,790 --> 01:28:07,679
into an assisted living center

1965
01:28:16,070 --> 01:28:12,800
it was going to explode and and no

1966
01:28:17,990 --> 01:28:16,080
you know if if you had the last people

1967
01:28:21,590 --> 01:28:18,000
on earth to be vaccinated

1968
01:28:23,430 --> 01:28:21,600
we're all in the same nursing home

1969
01:28:25,590 --> 01:28:23,440
there's no herd immunity that's going to

1970
01:28:27,669 --> 01:28:25,600
save them if

1971
01:28:29,590 --> 01:28:27,679
covet lands there they're all going to

1972
01:28:30,550 --> 01:28:29,600
get it or a large fraction we'll get it

1973
01:28:36,070 --> 01:28:30,560
and die and

1974
01:28:48,229 --> 01:28:39,510
the

1975
01:28:52,229 --> 01:28:48,239
to achieve some slowing of infection

1976
01:28:54,229 --> 01:28:52,239
due to inoculation we don't know

1977
01:28:57,350 --> 01:28:54,239
but it depends on the circles that

1978
01:29:01,110 --> 01:28:57,360
people move in

1979
01:29:03,030 --> 01:29:01,120
you know if if in fact

1980
01:29:04,870 --> 01:29:03,040
you had kids that go to a particular

1981
01:29:07,669 --> 01:29:04,880
school

1982
01:29:09,270 --> 01:29:07,679
if covet gets to one of the parents and

1983
01:29:11,110 --> 01:29:09,280
then gets to the kids and then they

1984
01:29:14,149 --> 01:29:11,120
spread the at school

1985
01:29:17,510 --> 01:29:14,159
then you have a much tighter connection

1986
01:29:21,189 --> 01:29:17,520
to the other parents in that school

1987
01:29:22,870 --> 01:29:21,199
than you might have to some other group

1988
01:29:24,470 --> 01:29:22,880
of folks on the other side of town like

1989
01:29:26,229 --> 01:29:24,480
maybe a nursing home

1990
01:29:27,590 --> 01:29:26,239
right okay on the other hand once it

1991
01:29:28,149 --> 01:29:27,600
gets to the nursing home the nursing

1992
01:29:30,950 --> 01:29:28,159
home at

1993
01:29:33,350 --> 01:29:30,960
home has very strong connectivity to

1994
01:29:36,149 --> 01:29:33,360
each other

1995
01:29:37,350 --> 01:29:36,159
so it's a it's a complicated thing now

1996
01:29:39,590 --> 01:29:37,360
um

1997
01:29:41,590 --> 01:29:39,600
israel is doing a great job of giving

1998
01:29:46,709 --> 01:29:41,600
people injections

1999
01:29:49,910 --> 01:29:46,719
um of the people that are in their

2000
01:29:51,510 --> 01:29:49,920
priority groups for the first wave

2001
01:29:54,390 --> 01:29:51,520
in like the first week they've done a

2002
01:29:58,629 --> 01:29:57,510
okay it's a smaller country it doesn't

2003
01:30:01,270 --> 01:29:58,639
have a problem

2004
01:30:04,870 --> 01:30:01,280
that canada and united states both have

2005
01:30:07,750 --> 01:30:04,880
of a huge rural population

2006
01:30:08,470 --> 01:30:07,760
but still our cities aren't doing that

2007
01:30:11,830 --> 01:30:08,480
well

2008
01:30:15,669 --> 01:30:11,840
right and

2009
01:30:21,270 --> 01:30:18,790
we have somehow failed

2010
01:30:24,149 --> 01:30:21,280
we have the weird situation that we

2011
01:30:27,350 --> 01:30:24,159
panic enough to do some things like

2012
01:30:29,189 --> 01:30:27,360
close the borders you know close all

2013
01:30:31,510 --> 01:30:29,199
restaurants close this

2014
01:30:32,470 --> 01:30:31,520
but we don't seem to be panic enough to

2015
01:30:35,189 --> 01:30:32,480
say

2016
01:30:36,790 --> 01:30:35,199
okay this is a [\h__\h] public health

2017
01:30:39,030 --> 01:30:36,800
emergency

2018
01:30:40,229 --> 01:30:39,040
we're calling out the national guard

2019
01:30:43,110 --> 01:30:40,239
we're putting people

2020
01:30:44,390 --> 01:30:43,120
or just put them in every damn walgreens

2021
01:30:47,910 --> 01:30:44,400
and cvs

2022
01:30:49,510 --> 01:30:47,920
or there's a hundred ways you could roll

2023
01:30:52,229 --> 01:30:49,520
out a vaccine

2024
01:30:54,229 --> 01:30:52,239
yeah way more effectively but instead

2025
01:30:56,790 --> 01:30:54,239
it's sort of like oh

2026
01:30:58,390 --> 01:30:56,800
yeah each state will decide and if the

2027
01:30:59,990 --> 01:30:58,400
state does a good job well that's good

2028
01:31:02,070 --> 01:31:00,000
if they do a bad job well those people

2029
01:31:03,350 --> 01:31:02,080
are a little [\h__\h]

2030
01:31:04,870 --> 01:31:03,360
okay i don't want to keep talking about

2031
01:31:05,750 --> 01:31:04,880
covid i wanted to ask you some physics

2032
01:31:07,270 --> 01:31:05,760
questions but

2033
01:31:09,030 --> 01:31:07,280
i don't get to speak to someone who

2034
01:31:10,550 --> 01:31:09,040
studies infectious diseases much

2035
01:31:12,470 --> 01:31:10,560
and i haven't been keeping up with the

2036
01:31:13,830 --> 01:31:12,480
covid news and i hear that some people

2037
01:31:15,830 --> 01:31:13,840
say colvit isn't much

2038
01:31:17,350 --> 01:31:15,840
more dangerous than the flu so first of

2039
01:31:18,550 --> 01:31:17,360
all i want to know what do you say to

2040
01:31:21,270 --> 01:31:18,560
that and then second

2041
01:31:22,550 --> 01:31:21,280
what is the deal with this new strain is

2042
01:31:28,870 --> 01:31:22,560
it more

2043
01:31:35,510 --> 01:31:31,030
well in both cases the world doesn't

2044
01:31:43,590 --> 01:31:40,229
there is we have a very strange

2045
01:31:46,629 --> 01:31:43,600
situation in our lives in general

2046
01:31:50,550 --> 01:31:46,639
where we get used to old risks and we

2047
01:31:57,270 --> 01:31:54,629
so yeah influenza killed

2048
01:31:58,310 --> 01:31:57,280
you know hundreds of millions of people

2049
01:32:05,990 --> 01:31:58,320
in

2050
01:32:09,030 --> 01:32:06,000
every year it's killed a shitload of

2051
01:32:13,590 --> 01:32:11,830
now why are we okay with that well we're

2052
01:32:14,709 --> 01:32:13,600
okay with that because we tried as hard

2053
01:32:17,750 --> 01:32:14,719
as we could

2054
01:32:21,189 --> 01:32:17,760
to make vaccines we

2055
01:32:21,590 --> 01:32:21,199
did come up with vaccine that usually in

2056
01:32:25,590 --> 01:32:21,600
most

2057
01:32:28,149 --> 01:32:25,600
years sort of kind of helps

2058
01:32:30,229 --> 01:32:28,159
but it's also true that the number of

2059
01:32:34,229 --> 01:32:30,239
people who have died in the annual

2060
01:32:37,030 --> 01:32:34,239
um flu epidemic from say 1918

2061
01:32:40,950 --> 01:32:37,040
to today 100 years worth that's about

2062
01:32:44,470 --> 01:32:40,960
the same as died in 1918.

2063
01:32:48,950 --> 01:32:44,480
now you have a new thing like covid

2064
01:32:51,189 --> 01:32:48,960
and covid i should say in 1918 it had a

2065
01:32:54,950 --> 01:32:51,199
very weird pattern

2066
01:32:59,350 --> 01:32:54,960
of mortality

2067
01:33:02,470 --> 01:32:59,360
so it was terrible on 18 to 24

2068
01:33:06,790 --> 01:33:02,480
year old men and

2069
01:33:09,910 --> 01:33:06,800
yet it was very uh few fatalities and

2070
01:33:13,750 --> 01:33:09,920
little infectiousness in

2071
01:33:15,910 --> 01:33:13,760
people i think at over the age of 65 or

2072
01:33:18,470 --> 01:33:15,920
60 something like that

2073
01:33:20,550 --> 01:33:18,480
and it's believed the reason why is that

2074
01:33:23,910 --> 01:33:20,560
there was another flu epidemic

2075
01:33:26,950 --> 01:33:23,920
not as severe that was

2076
01:33:30,070 --> 01:33:26,960
like 50 years earlier

2077
01:33:32,470 --> 01:33:30,080
and so the people who got that influenza

2078
01:33:34,470 --> 01:33:32,480
were pretty much spared the new one

2079
01:33:37,669 --> 01:33:34,480
interesting

2080
01:33:42,870 --> 01:33:37,679
um anyway

2081
01:33:42,880 --> 01:33:47,110
it's a few percent death risk

2082
01:33:51,030 --> 01:33:49,990
for many parts of the population but

2083
01:33:55,430 --> 01:33:51,040
i'll just take me

2084
01:33:58,709 --> 01:33:55,440
i'm 61 so i'm over 60.

2085
01:34:01,669 --> 01:33:58,719
um i've had some uh

2086
01:34:02,229 --> 01:34:01,679
respiratory infections in the past i

2087
01:34:03,590 --> 01:34:02,239
like that

2088
01:34:06,070 --> 01:34:03,600
difficult number theory probably just

2089
01:34:07,189 --> 01:34:06,080
said i'm 61 so i'm over 60.

2090
01:34:08,870 --> 01:34:07,199
yeah it's one of those go back

2091
01:34:10,149 --> 01:34:08,880
conjecture problems well but that's one

2092
01:34:12,310 --> 01:34:10,159
of the thresholds

2093
01:34:13,350 --> 01:34:12,320
and i'm not over 65 where it gets even

2094
01:34:15,669 --> 01:34:13,360
worse

2095
01:34:16,830 --> 01:34:15,679
but i also have had a bunch of sinus

2096
01:34:21,750 --> 01:34:16,840
infections

2097
01:34:24,709 --> 01:34:21,760
chronically i'm arguably high risk

2098
01:34:26,470 --> 01:34:24,719
and then oh besides it killing you it

2099
01:34:29,830 --> 01:34:26,480
can also

2100
01:34:33,270 --> 01:34:29,840
put you in a in a permanent brain

2101
01:34:34,550 --> 01:34:33,280
fog there's a whole bunch of evidence

2102
01:34:37,030 --> 01:34:34,560
for that

2103
01:34:38,149 --> 01:34:37,040
it can take away your sense of taste now

2104
01:34:39,750 --> 01:34:38,159
that would [\h__\h] up my

2105
01:34:43,270 --> 01:34:39,760
cookbook career if i couldn't taste

2106
01:34:49,910 --> 01:34:46,629
so and it it will kill

2107
01:34:53,189 --> 01:34:49,920
lots and lots of people and it is a

2108
01:34:55,750 --> 01:34:53,199
because it's a new thing

2109
01:34:57,109 --> 01:34:55,760
we arguably should do everything we can

2110
01:35:00,310 --> 01:34:57,119
within reason

2111
01:35:02,229 --> 01:35:00,320
to stop it and saying oh it's just as

2112
01:35:03,990 --> 01:35:02,239
bad as the other stuff

2113
01:35:05,270 --> 01:35:04,000
is like well yeah but you don't want to

2114
01:35:09,430 --> 01:35:05,280
multiply that by

2115
01:35:12,709 --> 01:35:09,440
something i mean car deaths

2116
01:35:15,669 --> 01:35:12,719
are horrendous in the united states and

2117
01:35:19,030 --> 01:35:15,679
in canada and all over the world

2118
01:35:22,950 --> 01:35:19,040
um there are many more people

2119
01:35:25,430 --> 01:35:22,960
killed uh by cars in the united states

2120
01:35:29,750 --> 01:35:25,440
than there are by people

2121
01:35:31,990 --> 01:35:29,760
okay the it's like twice the murder rate

2122
01:35:34,310 --> 01:35:32,000
and our murder rate is way too high for

2123
01:35:38,790 --> 01:35:34,320
a developed country it's a

2124
01:35:40,709 --> 01:35:38,800
it's a shame it should be much lower um

2125
01:35:42,550 --> 01:35:40,719
well if you if you introduced a new

2126
01:35:45,590 --> 01:35:42,560
thing as an oh but it's just as

2127
01:35:47,350 --> 01:35:45,600
it's only as bad as cars well cars all

2128
01:35:50,229 --> 01:35:47,360
over again

2129
01:35:51,350 --> 01:35:50,239
takes a large mortality factor and

2130
01:35:53,990 --> 01:35:51,360
doubles down

2131
01:35:55,990 --> 01:35:54,000
you don't want to do that and is it only

2132
01:36:00,149 --> 01:35:56,000
as bad as the flu or is it more

2133
01:36:03,990 --> 01:36:03,510
well it turns out people don't really

2134
01:36:07,430 --> 01:36:04,000
know

2135
01:36:08,070 --> 01:36:07,440
both sides of that equation we certainly

2136
01:36:11,430 --> 01:36:08,080
know

2137
01:36:14,550 --> 01:36:11,440
that it is got uh

2138
01:36:18,550 --> 01:36:14,560
the mortality in some

2139
01:36:21,750 --> 01:36:18,560
age groups appears to be

2140
01:36:23,189 --> 01:36:21,760
way worse than we would than you'd say

2141
01:36:26,870 --> 01:36:23,199
for a typical

2142
01:36:30,390 --> 01:36:26,880
annual flu that it's more like the

2143
01:36:33,109 --> 01:36:30,400
epidemic flu of 1918

2144
01:36:35,990 --> 01:36:33,119
but then somebody else says but oh do we

2145
01:36:39,030 --> 01:36:36,000
really know how many people

2146
01:36:42,070 --> 01:36:39,040
have had it

2147
01:36:45,350 --> 01:36:42,080
and the answer is we don't

2148
01:36:48,229 --> 01:36:45,360
so there are people who are

2149
01:36:49,030 --> 01:36:48,239
living in close proximity with others

2150
01:36:52,390 --> 01:36:49,040
who had it

2151
01:36:55,510 --> 01:36:52,400
who didn't seem to get it

2152
01:36:58,149 --> 01:36:55,520
now did those people get it and repel it

2153
01:37:02,070 --> 01:36:58,159
and beat it

2154
01:37:05,350 --> 01:37:02,080
did they have some pre-existing

2155
01:37:07,189 --> 01:37:05,360
immunity there's a thought that there

2156
01:37:10,390 --> 01:37:07,199
are two coronaviruses

2157
01:37:14,709 --> 01:37:10,400
that are implicated in the common cold

2158
01:37:16,629 --> 01:37:14,719
mainly maybe if you had a cold last year

2159
01:37:18,470 --> 01:37:16,639
and it was one of those coronary viruses

2160
01:37:22,709 --> 01:37:18,480
maybe you're immune to it

2161
01:37:26,149 --> 01:37:22,719
we don't know now

2162
01:37:29,270 --> 01:37:26,159
it was weird in the uh

2163
01:37:32,629 --> 01:37:29,280
1918 flu that it mostly

2164
01:37:35,510 --> 01:37:32,639
killed young adults um

2165
01:37:36,709 --> 01:37:35,520
this one is weird in that it doesn't

2166
01:37:40,149 --> 01:37:36,719
seem to

2167
01:37:43,750 --> 01:37:40,159
kill young children it can

2168
01:37:47,510 --> 01:37:43,760
kill young children it's not zero

2169
01:37:50,870 --> 01:37:47,520
but the mortality rate is way way lower

2170
01:37:52,070 --> 01:37:50,880
now that's a it's a little surprising

2171
01:37:55,109 --> 01:37:52,080
because

2172
01:37:58,790 --> 01:37:55,119
very small children don't have a

2173
01:38:05,990 --> 01:38:02,470
number one number two it's

2174
01:38:09,109 --> 01:38:06,000
just usually it's a new disease

2175
01:38:10,310 --> 01:38:09,119
hits the very old and the very young and

2176
01:38:12,950 --> 01:38:10,320
it's the people in the middle that are

2177
01:38:16,149 --> 01:38:12,960
okay this one's not like that

2178
01:38:19,270 --> 01:38:16,159
it's the sums it's the very

2179
01:38:22,950 --> 01:38:19,280
old and the middle part of

2180
01:38:25,669 --> 01:38:22,960
the the stack and older that uh

2181
01:38:26,709 --> 01:38:25,679
that seem to be most at risk but a lot

2182
01:38:32,149 --> 01:38:26,719
of this

2183
01:38:38,629 --> 01:38:36,390
a level of research that either

2184
01:38:41,430 --> 01:38:38,639
is difficult to do or hasn't been done

2185
01:38:47,430 --> 01:38:43,990
um now with regard to the new strain

2186
01:38:49,750 --> 01:38:47,440
yeah well the new strain

2187
01:38:51,750 --> 01:38:49,760
appears to be this is a kind of the same

2188
01:38:55,030 --> 01:38:51,760
thing you

2189
01:38:58,390 --> 01:38:55,040
it's viruses are messy when they

2190
01:39:00,950 --> 01:38:58,400
um replicate you

2191
01:39:02,390 --> 01:39:00,960
almost always see some replication

2192
01:39:05,030 --> 01:39:02,400
errors

2193
01:39:06,950 --> 01:39:05,040
and that allows for example the

2194
01:39:10,070 --> 01:39:06,960
conclusion

2195
01:39:11,750 --> 01:39:10,080
that the seattle epidemic started with

2196
01:39:13,830 --> 01:39:11,760
people from china

2197
01:39:16,790 --> 01:39:13,840
whereas the european the new york

2198
01:39:19,750 --> 01:39:16,800
epidemic started with people from

2199
01:39:20,229 --> 01:39:19,760
europe that conclusion is precisely

2200
01:39:22,709 --> 01:39:20,239
because

2201
01:39:24,470 --> 01:39:22,719
the strains are always mutating a little

2202
01:39:27,270 --> 01:39:24,480
bit

2203
01:39:28,229 --> 01:39:27,280
and the first new york strains were more

2204
01:39:31,030 --> 01:39:28,239
similar

2205
01:39:35,270 --> 01:39:31,040
to the western european ones than to the

2206
01:39:42,229 --> 01:39:39,270
are you okay do you have one of them

2207
01:39:44,229 --> 01:39:42,239
i every year i get this allergic cough

2208
01:39:46,790 --> 01:39:44,239
but he does have everyone around me

2209
01:39:49,189 --> 01:39:46,800
thinking oh my god this is it

2210
01:39:51,350 --> 01:39:49,199
um he's in the final death of causing

2211
01:39:55,669 --> 01:39:51,360
fear to all your loved ones

2212
01:39:58,470 --> 01:39:55,679
um so uh anyway

2213
01:40:00,229 --> 01:39:58,480
this strain has been or some strain that

2214
01:40:03,590 --> 01:40:00,239
appears

2215
01:40:06,790 --> 01:40:03,600
to have popped up from nowhere

2216
01:40:09,830 --> 01:40:06,800
in the uk and also

2217
01:40:14,550 --> 01:40:09,840
in south africa and it's been found

2218
01:40:18,790 --> 01:40:17,510
it's definitely a new strain by itself

2219
01:40:21,910 --> 01:40:18,800
that's not a big

2220
01:40:25,270 --> 01:40:21,920
surprise it might be more

2221
01:40:28,310 --> 01:40:25,280
infectious or more transmissible

2222
01:40:29,350 --> 01:40:28,320
that does occur with viruses we don't

2223
01:40:32,070 --> 01:40:29,360
know right now

2224
01:40:33,750 --> 01:40:32,080
i don't think there is enough there's so

2225
01:40:36,229 --> 01:40:33,760
many people that have said yes and

2226
01:40:40,070 --> 01:40:36,239
people who have said no

2227
01:40:42,470 --> 01:40:40,080
and a

2228
01:40:43,189 --> 01:40:42,480
out of an abundance of caution we have

2229
01:40:47,030 --> 01:40:43,199
to act

2230
01:40:49,669 --> 01:40:47,040
like oh it's it's yes

2231
01:40:50,629 --> 01:40:49,679
at the same time it's probably already

2232
01:40:53,910 --> 01:40:50,639
everywhere so

2233
01:40:54,790 --> 01:40:53,920
locking the doors probably doesn't do

2234
01:40:57,109 --> 01:40:54,800
that much

2235
01:40:59,270 --> 01:40:57,119
what it really ought to do is make you

2236
01:41:02,070 --> 01:40:59,280
want to get the vaccine out there

2237
01:41:02,550 --> 01:41:02,080
right wait sorry and this vaccine would

2238
01:41:04,310 --> 01:41:02,560
also

2239
01:41:06,390 --> 01:41:04,320
prevent the new strain from infecting

2240
01:41:09,590 --> 01:41:06,400
you well we don't

2241
01:41:12,550 --> 01:41:09,600
actually know that either see here's one

2242
01:41:19,270 --> 01:41:16,830
in physics we are able to use

2243
01:41:21,669 --> 01:41:19,280
abstractions to

2244
01:41:24,390 --> 01:41:21,679
say here's a very general theory and we

2245
01:41:26,870 --> 01:41:24,400
can calculate it in a very simplified

2246
01:41:29,189 --> 01:41:26,880
situation but it also works in a more

2247
01:41:31,990 --> 01:41:29,199
complicated one

2248
01:41:33,510 --> 01:41:32,000
so for example we say conservation of

2249
01:41:37,270 --> 01:41:33,520
mass

2250
01:41:39,430 --> 01:41:37,280
conservation of momentum conservation of

2251
01:41:44,229 --> 01:41:39,440
energy

2252
01:41:46,229 --> 01:41:44,239
well you can use those principles

2253
01:41:49,590 --> 01:41:46,239
in lots of a very com otherwise

2254
01:41:53,030 --> 01:41:49,600
complicated circumstances

2255
01:41:55,109 --> 01:41:53,040
the problem here is the effect that a

2256
01:41:56,550 --> 01:41:55,119
vaccine has we know in theory what a

2257
01:41:59,590 --> 01:41:56,560
vaccine does

2258
01:42:03,669 --> 01:41:59,600
is it stimulates your immune system

2259
01:42:05,669 --> 01:42:03,679
to be on the lookout for this pathogen

2260
01:42:06,950 --> 01:42:05,679
and that allows your immune system to

2261
01:42:11,990 --> 01:42:06,960
mount a response

2262
01:42:17,990 --> 01:42:12,000
and overwhelm the pathogen vastly sooner

2263
01:42:24,070 --> 01:42:22,149
but we don't know exactly whether

2264
01:42:28,070 --> 01:42:24,080
this is going to work with the others

2265
01:42:30,709 --> 01:42:28,080
because we haven't tested it

2266
01:42:31,270 --> 01:42:30,719
now this is one where if they have

2267
01:42:38,310 --> 01:42:31,280
enough

2268
01:42:41,510 --> 01:42:39,990
they'll be able to figure this one out

2269
01:42:46,310 --> 01:42:41,520
relatively quickly

2270
01:42:49,750 --> 01:42:46,320
and my bet would be it does

2271
01:42:52,390 --> 01:42:49,760
but it's a bat and you know in the case

2272
01:42:56,070 --> 01:42:52,400
of flow

2273
01:43:00,149 --> 01:42:56,080
uh flu famously mutates enough that

2274
01:43:07,350 --> 01:43:04,709
now because that's true for flu

2275
01:43:09,510 --> 01:43:07,360
you get this whole bunch of silly things

2276
01:43:12,149 --> 01:43:09,520
statements by scientists

2277
01:43:13,669 --> 01:43:12,159
where you know early in the epidemic

2278
01:43:14,550 --> 01:43:13,679
they'll say oh it'll all go away in the

2279
01:43:17,350 --> 01:43:14,560
summer

2280
01:43:19,910 --> 01:43:17,360
because it's a seasonal thing just like

2281
01:43:22,870 --> 01:43:21,430
and people would say scientists would

2282
01:43:24,390 --> 01:43:22,880
say this to me he said what do you want

2283
01:43:27,350 --> 01:43:24,400
drugs

2284
01:43:29,189 --> 01:43:27,360
there's no evidence of that you're

2285
01:43:31,910 --> 01:43:29,199
hoping it's true

2286
01:43:33,270 --> 01:43:31,920
oh there's you but most most respiratory

2287
01:43:35,270 --> 01:43:33,280
viruses are and i said

2288
01:43:37,189 --> 01:43:35,280
what do you mean by most once you

2289
01:43:39,510 --> 01:43:37,199
subtract out flu

2290
01:43:41,510 --> 01:43:39,520
we really don't know squat about about

2291
01:43:45,350 --> 01:43:41,520
the cold

2292
01:43:47,030 --> 01:43:45,360
well common colds do propagate during

2293
01:43:48,709 --> 01:43:47,040
the summer

2294
01:43:50,870 --> 01:43:48,719
and in fact there's a fascinating thing

2295
01:43:53,510 --> 01:43:50,880
that no one knows why

2296
01:43:54,390 --> 01:43:53,520
we seem to associate colds more with the

2297
01:43:57,990 --> 01:43:54,400
winter

2298
01:44:00,709 --> 01:43:58,000
mm-hmm i see okay also

2299
01:44:01,590 --> 01:44:00,719
even though flu is seasonal no one knows

2300
01:44:04,709 --> 01:44:01,600
why

2301
01:44:06,390 --> 01:44:04,719
cold is not seasonal then or is it only

2302
01:44:07,830 --> 01:44:06,400
somewhat seasonal i don't believe that

2303
01:44:09,590 --> 01:44:07,840
the common well the common goals is

2304
01:44:13,750 --> 01:44:09,600
certainly not entirely seasonal

2305
01:44:16,070 --> 01:44:13,760
the um annual epidemic of influenza is

2306
01:44:20,709 --> 01:44:16,080
strongly seasonal

2307
01:44:22,629 --> 01:44:20,719
so if you take 50 years of data between

2308
01:44:25,669 --> 01:44:22,639
france united states this is what i

2309
01:44:29,109 --> 01:44:25,679
happen to know the statistics

2310
01:44:30,950 --> 01:44:29,119
the day on which the peak epidemic

2311
01:44:32,790 --> 01:44:30,960
occurs

2312
01:44:34,149 --> 01:44:32,800
as recorded by say number of hospital

2313
01:44:38,070 --> 01:44:34,159
admissions or

2314
01:44:43,750 --> 01:44:40,149
it's only a few days different every

2315
01:44:46,790 --> 01:44:45,669
now that means it's got to have some

2316
01:44:51,350 --> 01:44:46,800
very powerful

2317
01:44:55,350 --> 01:44:53,430
well that so obviously we figured that

2318
01:44:59,030 --> 01:44:55,360
out right

2319
01:45:00,629 --> 01:44:59,040
we haven't there's multiple theories

2320
01:45:02,709 --> 01:45:00,639
the theories of course contradict each

2321
01:45:07,189 --> 01:45:02,719
other and the theories also

2322
01:45:08,790 --> 01:45:07,199
frankly contradict common sense mostly

2323
01:45:10,629 --> 01:45:08,800
as far as i know one of the theories is

2324
01:45:11,590 --> 01:45:10,639
that in the cold we congregate more such

2325
01:45:13,750 --> 01:45:11,600
as in buses

2326
01:45:14,629 --> 01:45:13,760
so what about that common cold there's

2327
01:45:21,270 --> 01:45:14,639
that

2328
01:45:25,189 --> 01:45:21,280
this is one of the great questions

2329
01:45:26,550 --> 01:45:25,199
that is part of what rudyard kipling

2330
01:45:29,350 --> 01:45:26,560
would call a just so

2331
01:45:31,750 --> 01:45:29,360
story he had these just those stories

2332
01:45:33,830 --> 01:45:31,760
how the leopard got its spots and

2333
01:45:34,950 --> 01:45:33,840
they're sort of little fables for

2334
01:45:38,310 --> 01:45:34,960
children

2335
01:45:40,790 --> 01:45:38,320
yes it's true that we congregate in we

2336
01:45:43,109 --> 01:45:40,800
ride the bus more whereas we might walk

2337
01:45:46,790 --> 01:45:43,119
or ride bicycles

2338
01:45:53,750 --> 01:45:46,800
right um

2339
01:45:59,590 --> 01:45:57,830
excuse me what timing huh yeah exactly

2340
01:46:03,750 --> 01:45:59,600
yeah give me one minute i'll be right

2341
01:46:07,270 --> 01:46:05,270
you know the the number of things we

2342
01:46:11,189 --> 01:46:07,280
don't know is

2343
01:46:13,510 --> 01:46:11,199
frighteningly large um

2344
01:46:14,870 --> 01:46:13,520
but at the moment i think look our best

2345
01:46:18,390 --> 01:46:14,880
bet is the vaccines

2346
01:46:20,390 --> 01:46:18,400
and let's hope that the vaccines

2347
01:46:21,990 --> 01:46:20,400
do provide protection against this other

2348
01:46:25,669 --> 01:46:22,000
strain

2349
01:46:28,149 --> 01:46:25,679
um and whatever

2350
01:46:31,189 --> 01:46:28,159
one thing that's terrible about having a

2351
01:46:35,910 --> 01:46:31,199
large epidemic

2352
01:46:39,590 --> 01:46:35,920
is that in a very crude way

2353
01:46:43,910 --> 01:46:41,910
determines the rate of evolution of the

2354
01:46:45,669 --> 01:46:43,920
virus

2355
01:46:47,350 --> 01:46:45,679
because every time he gets transmitted

2356
01:46:49,270 --> 01:46:47,360
to a new person you're running a new

2357
01:46:50,790 --> 01:46:49,280
evolutionary experiment and you could

2358
01:46:52,149 --> 01:46:50,800
have new mutations

2359
01:46:53,910 --> 01:46:52,159
that's why you're surprised that there's

2360
01:46:56,629 --> 01:46:53,920
only one new strain well

2361
01:46:57,430 --> 01:46:56,639
there isn't one there's hundreds of

2362
01:46:59,590 --> 01:46:57,440
strains

2363
01:47:01,510 --> 01:46:59,600
but they're little teeny teeny

2364
01:47:04,390 --> 01:47:01,520
differences i think this is one that

2365
01:47:07,990 --> 01:47:04,400
seems to be a larger macro difference

2366
01:47:10,149 --> 01:47:08,000
okay okay let's get back to some of your

2367
01:47:11,669 --> 01:47:10,159
asteroid research i remember you said

2368
01:47:14,229 --> 01:47:11,679
that in i believe it was

2369
01:47:15,430 --> 01:47:14,239
nasa's data they analyzed some of the

2370
01:47:17,910 --> 01:47:15,440
asteroids as

2371
01:47:18,950 --> 01:47:17,920
circular i mean sorry spherical when

2372
01:47:21,189 --> 01:47:18,960
when they're oblong when they're

2373
01:47:22,950 --> 01:47:21,199
elongated

2374
01:47:24,390 --> 01:47:22,960
please let me know if you recall what

2375
01:47:25,750 --> 01:47:24,400
i'm saying and but to me and to

2376
01:47:26,070 --> 01:47:25,760
virtually anyone listening that seems

2377
01:47:27,910 --> 01:47:26,080
like an

2378
01:47:29,750 --> 01:47:27,920
obvious mistake so why would these

2379
01:47:34,390 --> 01:47:29,760
experts model them spherically just

2380
01:47:34,400 --> 01:47:37,669
well

2381
01:47:42,070 --> 01:47:40,870
the it's true that the model that they

2382
01:47:44,310 --> 01:47:42,080
used

2383
01:47:47,189 --> 01:47:44,320
is a model which assumes that the

2384
01:47:49,669 --> 01:47:47,199
asteroid is a sphere

2385
01:47:50,790 --> 01:47:49,679
now if you have enough measurements of

2386
01:47:54,629 --> 01:47:50,800
it

2387
01:47:56,390 --> 01:47:54,639
compensate

2388
01:47:58,070 --> 01:47:56,400
they typically didn't have enough

2389
01:48:01,030 --> 01:47:58,080
measurements of it

2390
01:48:04,070 --> 01:48:01,040
but these the using a spherical model is

2391
01:48:07,910 --> 01:48:04,080
not the worst thing they did

2392
01:48:11,669 --> 01:48:07,920
they also just made data up

2393
01:48:13,669 --> 01:48:11,679
and just just cheated

2394
01:48:15,109 --> 01:48:13,679
yeah when you say they made data up they

2395
01:48:17,030 --> 01:48:15,119
copied data is that what you mean when

2396
01:48:20,870 --> 01:48:17,040
you say they made them up

2397
01:48:25,510 --> 01:48:20,880
yeah so you're supposed to be deriving

2398
01:48:28,790 --> 01:48:25,520
the um diameter of these asteroids

2399
01:48:31,270 --> 01:48:28,800
and instead you know and

2400
01:48:32,870 --> 01:48:31,280
the ones the way you tell if you did a

2401
01:48:34,709 --> 01:48:32,880
good job is you have about a hundred

2402
01:48:36,870 --> 01:48:34,719
asteroids

2403
01:48:39,189 --> 01:48:36,880
that you know the diameter of from a

2404
01:48:41,270 --> 01:48:39,199
different method

2405
01:48:43,510 --> 01:48:41,280
so you say right the way i determine my

2406
01:48:44,550 --> 01:48:43,520
accuracy is i predict it over here and i

2407
01:48:48,149 --> 01:48:44,560
compare it

2408
01:48:49,990 --> 01:48:48,159
to the known results and my predictions

2409
01:48:50,390 --> 01:48:50,000
match then i pat myself in the back and

2410
01:48:53,510 --> 01:48:50,400
said

2411
01:48:55,910 --> 01:48:53,520
i did something that was accurate yeah

2412
01:48:58,870 --> 01:48:55,920
um these people just copied all the

2413
01:49:06,470 --> 01:49:03,030
and the consequence of that is what well

2414
01:49:10,070 --> 01:49:06,480
it well it's deeply unethical

2415
01:49:11,830 --> 01:49:10,080
number one number two they did this and

2416
01:49:13,109 --> 01:49:11,840
then they claimed that they had the most

2417
01:49:15,350 --> 01:49:13,119
accurate

2418
01:49:17,830 --> 01:49:15,360
diameters and they criticized everyone

2419
01:49:21,750 --> 01:49:17,840
else who had done

2420
01:49:24,870 --> 01:49:21,760
other data sets in the past even though

2421
01:49:26,229 --> 01:49:24,880
they had no idea of what their accuracy

2422
01:49:29,990 --> 01:49:26,239
was

2423
01:49:33,030 --> 01:49:30,000
and because they took the only cases

2424
01:49:35,030 --> 01:49:33,040
that uh where we know the answer and

2425
01:49:37,510 --> 01:49:35,040
they copied those

2426
01:49:40,550 --> 01:49:37,520
you can't now tell what the accuracy of

2427
01:49:43,030 --> 01:49:40,560
any of their things are

2428
01:49:44,229 --> 01:49:43,040
so they built it on a shaky foundation

2429
01:49:47,589 --> 01:49:44,239
yeah and i

2430
01:49:50,070 --> 01:49:47,599
i think it was just a rush

2431
01:49:51,669 --> 01:49:50,080
to try to get their project done and

2432
01:49:53,270 --> 01:49:51,679
also to make their project look like it

2433
01:49:55,350 --> 01:49:53,280
was a success

2434
01:49:56,790 --> 01:49:55,360
and we're talking about nasa here we're

2435
01:49:59,910 --> 01:49:56,800
talking about jpl

2436
01:50:03,189 --> 01:49:59,920
the jet propulsion laboratory so it's

2437
01:50:06,550 --> 01:50:03,199
a laboratory managed by caltech but

2438
01:50:07,990 --> 01:50:06,560
it's effectively part of nasa and

2439
01:50:10,229 --> 01:50:08,000
and some of the scientists who were

2440
01:50:14,070 --> 01:50:10,239
involved in this weren't njpl there are

2441
01:50:16,470 --> 01:50:14,080
various universities and so

2442
01:50:19,830 --> 01:50:16,480
you know it's the kind of thing that if

2443
01:50:22,390 --> 01:50:19,840
you or i had done as an undergraduate

2444
01:50:26,310 --> 01:50:22,400
um and we've been found out we would

2445
01:50:28,870 --> 01:50:26,320
have been expelled

2446
01:50:30,790 --> 01:50:28,880
and you know we'd be talking about how

2447
01:50:31,750 --> 01:50:30,800
our lives took this big turn we couldn't

2448
01:50:34,870 --> 01:50:31,760
become physicists

2449
01:50:38,390 --> 01:50:34,880
we were expelled for cheating and

2450
01:50:40,390 --> 01:50:38,400
um but because nasa

2451
01:50:42,390 --> 01:50:40,400
is very influential and gives out lots

2452
01:50:45,189 --> 01:50:42,400
of money

2453
01:50:48,870 --> 01:50:45,199
other scientists really didn't want to

2454
01:50:52,950 --> 01:50:50,790
a bunch they needed someone like you

2455
01:50:57,030 --> 01:50:52,960
who's independent to say

2456
01:50:59,430 --> 01:50:57,040
yes that's right this was

2457
01:51:02,310 --> 01:50:59,440
you know people would sometimes ask me

2458
01:51:03,990 --> 01:51:02,320
why are you doing this and the answer is

2459
01:51:06,629 --> 01:51:04,000
because paradoxically i'm the only one

2460
01:51:08,070 --> 01:51:06,639
who could

2461
01:51:10,629 --> 01:51:08,080
this is interesting this brings me to a

2462
01:51:11,189 --> 01:51:10,639
larger a thought occurs to me how much

2463
01:51:13,669 --> 01:51:11,199
of

2464
01:51:15,270 --> 01:51:13,679
let's say problems in science in general

2465
01:51:15,830 --> 01:51:15,280
there's a variety i'm sure but i'm

2466
01:51:17,430 --> 01:51:15,840
thinking

2467
01:51:18,950 --> 01:51:17,440
specifically right now about theoretical

2468
01:51:21,350 --> 01:51:18,960
physics and string theory

2469
01:51:22,310 --> 01:51:21,360
but problems in general are due to the

2470
01:51:24,070 --> 01:51:22,320
dependence on

2471
01:51:25,910 --> 01:51:24,080
funding from a certain agency versus

2472
01:51:27,669 --> 01:51:25,920
someone like you who can be independent

2473
01:51:29,430 --> 01:51:27,679
and say well here's what i think

2474
01:51:30,870 --> 01:51:29,440
and i can stand up to you well i don't

2475
01:51:36,709 --> 01:51:30,880
think it's super

2476
01:51:41,750 --> 01:51:39,910
the the string theory

2477
01:51:43,030 --> 01:51:41,760
is so complicated that generally it's

2478
01:51:46,790 --> 01:51:43,040
very hard to compute

2479
01:51:53,910 --> 01:51:50,149
um that that's why uh

2480
01:51:56,470 --> 01:51:53,920
my friend peter named his blog

2481
01:51:58,709 --> 01:51:56,480
uh after a saying of wolf king paulies

2482
01:52:02,629 --> 01:51:58,719
who was a great uh german physicist

2483
01:52:05,990 --> 01:52:02,639
it's not even wrong

2484
01:52:07,189 --> 01:52:06,000
so it's wrong would be it makes a

2485
01:52:10,310 --> 01:52:07,199
prediction

2486
01:52:12,470 --> 01:52:10,320
and it doesn't match the world but in

2487
01:52:16,149 --> 01:52:12,480
most cases in string theory

2488
01:52:19,189 --> 01:52:16,159
it's so mathematically difficult to make

2489
01:52:23,189 --> 01:52:19,199
a actual prediction

2490
01:52:27,910 --> 01:52:26,149
you're not even at that level okay okay

2491
01:52:29,990 --> 01:52:27,920
now the ramifications of the asteroids

2492
01:52:31,350 --> 01:52:30,000
does it have something to do with the

2493
01:52:32,070 --> 01:52:31,360
threat of asteroids being

2494
01:52:35,109 --> 01:52:32,080
underdetermined

2495
01:52:38,310 --> 01:52:35,119
well yes it the threat

2496
01:52:41,430 --> 01:52:38,320
the size of the asteroids is important

2497
01:52:43,430 --> 01:52:41,440
for two reasons one is as a

2498
01:52:45,030 --> 01:52:43,440
part of understanding how the solar

2499
01:52:46,950 --> 01:52:45,040
system was built

2500
01:52:48,870 --> 01:52:46,960
asteroids are a very critical part of

2501
01:52:52,629 --> 01:52:48,880
that

2502
01:52:54,950 --> 01:52:52,639
um asteroids are a little bit

2503
01:52:56,149 --> 01:52:54,960
like the junk you see at a construction

2504
01:52:59,270 --> 01:52:56,159
site

2505
01:53:02,629 --> 01:52:59,280
they're building a house you'll see

2506
01:53:04,470 --> 01:53:02,639
sawed off pieces of 2x4 and nails and

2507
01:53:08,390 --> 01:53:04,480
all this other stuff

2508
01:53:11,510 --> 01:53:08,400
and that's a great analogy by the way

2509
01:53:13,350 --> 01:53:11,520
this is the material that was left over

2510
01:53:16,229 --> 01:53:13,360
from building

2511
01:53:17,510 --> 01:53:16,239
the solar system and it never really got

2512
01:53:19,669 --> 01:53:17,520
into a planet

2513
01:53:20,950 --> 01:53:19,679
or another thing and so it's kind of the

2514
01:53:22,709 --> 01:53:20,960
drug left over but

2515
01:53:25,109 --> 01:53:22,719
it's super interesting to understand

2516
01:53:25,990 --> 01:53:25,119
that junk to understand the conditions

2517
01:53:28,709 --> 01:53:26,000
under which the solar

2518
01:53:30,709 --> 01:53:28,719
system formed the other reason is

2519
01:53:34,470 --> 01:53:30,719
practical that we want to know

2520
01:53:36,870 --> 01:53:34,480
the threat that asteroids pose um

2521
01:53:37,750 --> 01:53:36,880
they were kind of tough on the dinosaurs

2522
01:53:40,470 --> 01:53:37,760
right right

2523
01:53:41,510 --> 01:53:40,480
we now know and you were there at one of

2524
01:53:44,550 --> 01:53:41,520
the first lectures

2525
01:53:46,229 --> 01:53:44,560
where that was proposed yes yeah that's

2526
01:53:49,510 --> 01:53:46,239
pretty cool

2527
01:53:50,310 --> 01:53:49,520
yeah it was that was a great example of

2528
01:54:19,830 --> 01:53:50,320
a

2529
01:54:22,550 --> 01:54:19,840
been

2530
01:54:23,430 --> 01:54:22,560
traced to lots of other mass extinctions

2531
01:54:28,470 --> 01:54:23,440
not just

2532
01:54:33,910 --> 01:54:31,510
going back to the threat uh

2533
01:54:34,950 --> 01:54:33,920
yeah so it's very important to know for

2534
01:54:37,830 --> 01:54:34,960
the threat

2535
01:54:38,550 --> 01:54:37,840
particularly because the way some of

2536
01:54:40,790 --> 01:54:38,560
these

2537
01:54:42,709 --> 01:54:40,800
this asteroid work is funded is by

2538
01:54:44,790 --> 01:54:42,719
telling congress oh this is important

2539
01:54:47,350 --> 01:54:44,800
for the threat

2540
01:54:48,629 --> 01:54:47,360
yes you tell congress look this isn't

2541
01:54:51,189 --> 01:54:48,639
just

2542
01:54:52,550 --> 01:54:51,199
a bunch of scientists having fun with

2543
01:54:55,589 --> 01:54:52,560
the origin of the

2544
01:54:58,470 --> 01:54:55,599
uh solar system no no this might

2545
01:55:02,229 --> 01:54:58,480
tell you what thing is going to plunk

2546
01:55:05,189 --> 01:55:02,239
down in the middle of kansas next week

2547
01:55:07,189 --> 01:55:05,199
and so we really need to know it yeah

2548
01:55:09,510 --> 01:55:07,199
and it's compelling argument

2549
01:55:11,589 --> 01:55:09,520
so they have an incentive to overplay

2550
01:55:12,709 --> 01:55:11,599
the threat of asteroids or did you find

2551
01:55:14,390 --> 01:55:12,719
in your research that we're actually

2552
01:55:17,430 --> 01:55:14,400
underplaying it

2553
01:55:20,790 --> 01:55:17,440
well it's in

2554
01:55:23,750 --> 01:55:20,800
they're using that threat as a way to

2555
01:55:26,070 --> 01:55:23,760
ask for more funding and i say you

2556
01:55:30,550 --> 01:55:26,080
shouldn't give those people more funding

2557
01:55:33,830 --> 01:55:30,560
until they learn math or

2558
01:55:36,390 --> 01:55:33,840
and ethics uh so

2559
01:55:37,990 --> 01:55:36,400
um and that goes for both now there's

2560
01:55:38,550 --> 01:55:38,000
lots of other people at jpl that are

2561
01:55:40,470 --> 01:55:38,560
great

2562
01:55:42,229 --> 01:55:40,480
there's not everyone at jpl but there's

2563
01:55:45,510 --> 01:55:42,239
one group of jpl

2564
01:55:49,350 --> 01:55:45,520
there's one person but one professor at

2565
01:55:53,990 --> 01:55:49,360
ucla that

2566
01:55:55,669 --> 01:55:54,000
really screwed up um

2567
01:55:57,830 --> 01:55:55,679
and had a giant amount of arrogance

2568
01:55:58,550 --> 01:55:57,840
about that screw up and so didn't admit

2569
01:56:01,030 --> 01:55:58,560
it and has

2570
01:56:02,550 --> 01:56:01,040
fought it to the mail because they

2571
01:56:03,830 --> 01:56:02,560
thought you i recall that they put out

2572
01:56:06,149 --> 01:56:03,840
an article

2573
01:56:07,589 --> 01:56:06,159
oh yeah no they they did did a smear

2574
01:56:12,149 --> 01:56:07,599
campaign on me

2575
01:56:15,669 --> 01:56:14,950
they it's been very hard for me i have

2576
01:56:17,990 --> 01:56:15,679
published

2577
01:56:18,950 --> 01:56:18,000
several papers including one over 100

2578
01:56:22,550 --> 01:56:18,960
pages

2579
01:56:24,790 --> 01:56:22,560
but it's been much more difficult for me

2580
01:56:28,390 --> 01:56:24,800
to do that because

2581
01:56:32,310 --> 01:56:28,400
uh i'm the guy who's saying that

2582
01:56:35,270 --> 01:56:32,320
people in the field are totally wrong

2583
01:56:35,589 --> 01:56:35,280
and some people in the field agree with

2584
01:56:37,350 --> 01:56:35,599
me

2585
01:56:39,669 --> 01:56:37,360
but say well why don't you just like be

2586
01:56:42,709 --> 01:56:39,679
a little quieter about it

2587
01:56:45,270 --> 01:56:42,719
it's like no that's

2588
01:56:47,510 --> 01:56:45,280
unethical to be quieter about something

2589
01:56:50,149 --> 01:56:47,520
that's this bad

2590
01:56:51,669 --> 01:56:50,159
um are you driven by ethics or were you

2591
01:56:54,830 --> 01:56:51,679
always disagreeable and you'll point out

2592
01:56:54,840 --> 01:56:59,030
well

2593
01:57:04,390 --> 01:57:01,589
i certainly noticed that they had done

2594
01:57:06,310 --> 01:57:04,400
some things very seriously wrong

2595
01:57:08,390 --> 01:57:06,320
and initially it wasn't this copying

2596
01:57:11,750 --> 01:57:08,400
initially what i noticed is that they

2597
01:57:14,070 --> 01:57:11,760
didn't understand freshman physics

2598
01:57:16,790 --> 01:57:14,080
and they even the professor didn't

2599
01:57:19,990 --> 01:57:16,800
understand freshman physics

2600
01:57:23,030 --> 01:57:20,000
yep um

2601
01:57:25,030 --> 01:57:23,040
just no they is there something called

2602
01:57:29,109 --> 01:57:25,040
kirchhoff's law of radiation

2603
01:57:31,750 --> 01:57:29,119
it's in all early physics classes

2604
01:57:33,350 --> 01:57:31,760
it's part of understanding what's called

2605
01:57:35,189 --> 01:57:33,360
black body radiation which is

2606
01:57:36,830 --> 01:57:35,199
fundamental to all of the modeling they

2607
01:57:41,350 --> 01:57:36,840
do

2608
01:57:42,950 --> 01:57:41,360
they didn't understand it at all

2609
01:57:44,470 --> 01:57:42,960
um when you say they didn't understand

2610
01:57:45,830 --> 01:57:44,480
it do you mean to say that they didn't

2611
01:57:48,790 --> 01:57:45,840
incorporate it

2612
01:57:51,350 --> 01:57:48,800
okay they their approach to modeling

2613
01:57:55,270 --> 01:57:51,360
totally violates it

2614
01:57:58,950 --> 01:57:55,280
so they're they tried to apply

2615
01:58:02,070 --> 01:57:58,960
a method which violates physical law

2616
01:58:04,070 --> 01:58:02,080
which that's a bad thing to do

2617
01:58:05,589 --> 01:58:04,080
now it's a bad thing to do that most

2618
01:58:07,430 --> 01:58:05,599
people would generally ascribe to

2619
01:58:10,790 --> 01:58:07,440
ignorance

2620
01:58:14,070 --> 01:58:10,800
arrogance

2621
01:58:17,510 --> 01:58:14,080
not ethics it was that

2622
01:58:21,189 --> 01:58:17,520
after you've i found the ethical things

2623
01:58:22,310 --> 01:58:21,199
that in some sense made it even worse

2624
01:58:25,430 --> 01:58:22,320
and the ethical things you're talking

2625
01:58:28,550 --> 01:58:25,440
about the copying of data okay

2626
01:58:31,750 --> 01:58:28,560
unethical things and uh

2627
01:58:35,270 --> 01:58:31,760
the science

2628
01:58:36,950 --> 01:58:35,280
exists because we trust it and we can

2629
01:58:40,870 --> 01:58:36,960
only trust it

2630
01:58:43,270 --> 01:58:40,880
if we're vigilant to it and

2631
01:58:45,990 --> 01:58:43,280
you could get lots of scientists to say

2632
01:58:48,790 --> 01:58:46,000
oh yes that's true

2633
01:58:49,270 --> 01:58:48,800
but the ones in general they don't apply

2634
01:58:52,229 --> 01:58:49,280
that

2635
01:58:53,589 --> 01:58:52,239
uniformly in this case the professor at

2636
01:58:56,149 --> 01:58:53,599
ucla

2637
01:58:57,430 --> 01:58:56,159
is kind of a loudmouth jerk who likes to

2638
01:58:59,669 --> 01:58:57,440
one-up people

2639
01:59:01,189 --> 01:58:59,679
and has a reputation for being really

2640
01:59:04,310 --> 01:59:01,199
smart

2641
01:59:05,589 --> 01:59:04,320
um which is weird because in all of his

2642
01:59:08,390 --> 01:59:05,599
interactions with me

2643
01:59:09,109 --> 01:59:08,400
he's nothing he says makes any sense at

2644
01:59:11,270 --> 01:59:09,119
all

2645
01:59:14,830 --> 01:59:11,280
but he says it are you able to say his

2646
01:59:19,830 --> 01:59:16,709
um

2647
01:59:20,870 --> 01:59:19,840
uh aggressively oh you don't understand

2648
01:59:21,430 --> 01:59:20,880
it because of this theory i'm not

2649
01:59:24,470 --> 01:59:21,440
throwing

2650
01:59:26,310 --> 01:59:24,480
that and it's only if you both know all

2651
01:59:27,350 --> 01:59:26,320
those theories and this you say wait a

2652
01:59:30,149 --> 01:59:27,360
minute

2653
01:59:32,149 --> 01:59:30,159
that is a bunch of [\h__\h] this brings

2654
01:59:33,910 --> 01:59:32,159
me to a larger problem

2655
01:59:35,430 --> 01:59:33,920
that you mentioned with regard to kovit

2656
01:59:37,510 --> 01:59:35,440
and now nasa and

2657
01:59:39,750 --> 01:59:37,520
a general cultural movement to distrust

2658
01:59:41,510 --> 01:59:39,760
mainstream science

2659
01:59:43,030 --> 01:59:41,520
well here's what's interesting is that

2660
01:59:44,070 --> 01:59:43,040
there's seems to me

2661
01:59:45,669 --> 01:59:44,080
from the outside let's say i'm

2662
01:59:46,310 --> 01:59:45,679
investigating an issue like global

2663
01:59:47,669 --> 01:59:46,320
warming

2664
01:59:49,030 --> 01:59:47,679
now obviously some people say it exists

2665
01:59:49,589 --> 01:59:49,040
some people say it doesn't exist and you

2666
01:59:52,149 --> 01:59:49,599
have your

2667
01:59:53,669 --> 01:59:52,159
your own you you seem to know the answer

2668
01:59:56,470 --> 01:59:53,679
to that because you've investigated it

2669
01:59:57,109 --> 01:59:56,480
but to me from the outside okay how does

2670
02:00:00,229 --> 01:59:57,119
one

2671
02:00:02,310 --> 02:00:00,239
go about researching a contentious issue

2672
02:00:04,149 --> 02:00:02,320
when it seems like there are incentive

2673
02:00:05,510 --> 02:00:04,159
structures on each side to either say

2674
02:00:05,910 --> 02:00:05,520
that global warming exists or doesn't

2675
02:00:07,030 --> 02:00:05,920
exist

2676
02:00:09,109 --> 02:00:07,040
or whatever the issue whether it's

2677
02:00:09,510 --> 02:00:09,119
global warming or not given that as you

2678
02:00:11,510 --> 02:00:09,520
mentioned

2679
02:00:12,709 --> 02:00:11,520
sometimes these large institutions all

2680
02:00:15,109 --> 02:00:12,719
agree on a single

2681
02:00:16,629 --> 02:00:15,119
narrative and they might be colluding or

2682
02:00:17,189 --> 02:00:16,639
they might be just ignorant or whatever

2683
02:00:19,510 --> 02:00:17,199
it may be

2684
02:00:24,550 --> 02:00:19,520
so what what are we to do as individuals

2685
02:00:27,750 --> 02:00:26,629
hey i don't have a good answer for you

2686
02:00:31,030 --> 02:00:27,760
you know we

2687
02:00:34,390 --> 02:00:31,040
we have this situation

2688
02:00:37,189 --> 02:00:34,400
that for a variety of reasons

2689
02:00:38,550 --> 02:00:37,199
there are folks that don't want to take

2690
02:00:41,830 --> 02:00:38,560
the vaccine

2691
02:00:44,149 --> 02:00:41,840
because they don't trust some element

2692
02:00:45,030 --> 02:00:44,159
of this whole thing they either say i

2693
02:00:49,109 --> 02:00:45,040
don't trust

2694
02:00:50,950 --> 02:00:49,119
we

2695
02:00:53,990 --> 02:00:50,960
develop this under record time why don't

2696
02:00:55,589 --> 02:00:54,000
they go back and do it more slowly

2697
02:00:59,109 --> 02:00:55,599
you don't [\h__\h] people are dying that's

2698
02:00:59,119 --> 02:01:03,350
and it turns out that the

2699
02:01:08,310 --> 02:01:05,750
the argument that they ought to be made

2700
02:01:10,790 --> 02:01:08,320
to them is very straightforward

2701
02:01:11,830 --> 02:01:10,800
which is current goals and speed you

2702
02:01:15,189 --> 02:01:11,840
will get

2703
02:01:16,870 --> 02:01:15,199
coven every one of us will

2704
02:01:19,350 --> 02:01:16,880
i'm not referring to coveting specific

2705
02:01:22,310 --> 02:01:19,360
i'm just well okay but here's the deal

2706
02:01:24,790 --> 02:01:22,320
every one of us will get it and for

2707
02:01:27,189 --> 02:01:24,800
almost every one of us

2708
02:01:28,229 --> 02:01:27,199
like probably every one of us getting

2709
02:01:31,189 --> 02:01:28,239
covered

2710
02:01:33,109 --> 02:01:31,199
has a higher risk threshold than the

2711
02:01:35,750 --> 02:01:33,119
worst vaccine anyone ever made in

2712
02:01:39,109 --> 02:01:37,430
so these vaccines actually seem like

2713
02:01:39,589 --> 02:01:39,119
they're the best vaccines anyone made in

2714
02:01:42,310 --> 02:01:39,599
history

2715
02:01:44,870 --> 02:01:42,320
as it turns out just out by accident but

2716
02:01:47,030 --> 02:01:44,880
even if it was the worst

2717
02:01:48,950 --> 02:01:47,040
give it a break this is like people

2718
02:01:49,350 --> 02:01:48,960
driving to the airport who are afraid

2719
02:01:51,750 --> 02:01:49,360
about

2720
02:01:52,870 --> 02:01:51,760
a plane crash because a plane they're

2721
02:01:55,350 --> 02:01:52,880
going to get on

2722
02:01:56,709 --> 02:01:55,360
but then driving the airport is vastly

2723
02:02:00,070 --> 02:01:56,719
more dangerous

2724
02:02:02,470 --> 02:02:00,080
i see okay now how you get people

2725
02:02:03,109 --> 02:02:02,480
to internalize those things and believe

2726
02:02:06,709 --> 02:02:03,119
them

2727
02:02:10,550 --> 02:02:06,719
i don't know it certainly doesn't help

2728
02:02:13,669 --> 02:02:10,560
that kovit has been politicized

2729
02:02:17,270 --> 02:02:13,679
and i mean that with both capital p

2730
02:02:20,149 --> 02:02:17,280
politics you know associated with

2731
02:02:20,870 --> 02:02:20,159
the the trump administration or the this

2732
02:02:23,910 --> 02:02:20,880
or that

2733
02:02:27,350 --> 02:02:23,920
but it also means small p politics like

2734
02:02:30,950 --> 02:02:27,360
oh let's say it's okay to golf but not

2735
02:02:34,870 --> 02:02:32,629
know these golf courses are going to be

2736
02:02:39,589 --> 02:02:34,880
really mad at us

2737
02:02:41,589 --> 02:02:39,599
it it and so you have a situation where

2738
02:02:44,790 --> 02:02:41,599
people also the scientists

2739
02:02:47,270 --> 02:02:44,800
have been groping their way

2740
02:02:49,510 --> 02:02:47,280
now the fact that they the they've

2741
02:02:53,830 --> 02:02:49,520
changed their minds

2742
02:02:59,750 --> 02:02:57,030
if you say yep i had my mind made up

2743
02:03:01,109 --> 02:02:59,760
and nothing i can see will ever change

2744
02:03:04,870 --> 02:03:01,119
my mind

2745
02:03:05,990 --> 02:03:04,880
you should not trust that man because

2746
02:03:08,070 --> 02:03:06,000
you need to have someone who's

2747
02:03:10,310 --> 02:03:08,080
constantly weighing evidence

2748
02:03:11,990 --> 02:03:10,320
and new evidence of new things can

2749
02:03:14,709 --> 02:03:12,000
change your mind

2750
02:03:15,189 --> 02:03:14,719
but we've had the unfortunate situation

2751
02:03:18,629 --> 02:03:15,199
that

2752
02:03:21,830 --> 02:03:18,639
there are a lot of people who um

2753
02:03:24,229 --> 02:03:21,840
who don't believe and and will refuse

2754
02:03:27,109 --> 02:03:24,239
the vaccine

2755
02:03:29,750 --> 02:03:27,119
now the rude thing to say is that's just

2756
02:03:32,790 --> 02:03:29,760
evolution in action

2757
02:03:33,910 --> 02:03:32,800
those people will suffer a higher rate

2758
02:03:37,830 --> 02:03:33,920
of

2759
02:03:43,430 --> 02:03:37,840
uh consequences

2760
02:03:45,990 --> 02:03:43,440
from uh covet than from the vaccine and

2761
02:03:46,550 --> 02:03:46,000
to a certain percentage we can tolerate

2762
02:03:50,310 --> 02:03:46,560
that

2763
02:03:52,149 --> 02:03:50,320
in society um

2764
02:03:53,830 --> 02:03:52,159
i say a certain percentage because of

2765
02:03:57,270 --> 02:03:53,840
that herd immunity thing because you

2766
02:04:00,629 --> 02:03:57,280
don't have to get to every last

2767
02:04:01,350 --> 02:04:00,639
person however i think when it comes to

2768
02:04:04,069 --> 02:04:01,360
stuff

2769
02:04:05,030 --> 02:04:04,079
like the anti-vaxxers that don't want

2770
02:04:09,270 --> 02:04:05,040
their children

2771
02:04:13,830 --> 02:04:12,629
it is a real danger to other kids in the

2772
02:04:21,669 --> 02:04:13,840
school

2773
02:04:23,910 --> 02:04:21,679
children of families that have someone

2774
02:04:25,990 --> 02:04:23,920
a kid in the school and so on and so

2775
02:04:27,430 --> 02:04:26,000
forth to have those kids not be

2776
02:04:30,709 --> 02:04:27,440
vaccinated

2777
02:04:33,030 --> 02:04:30,719
and it's really bad for them

2778
02:04:34,470 --> 02:04:33,040
so you know on one hand in a free

2779
02:04:38,069 --> 02:04:34,480
society you want

2780
02:04:39,589 --> 02:04:38,079
to allow people to have a certain set of

2781
02:04:41,430 --> 02:04:39,599
freedoms

2782
02:04:42,629 --> 02:04:41,440
on the other hand you don't typically

2783
02:04:44,870 --> 02:04:42,639
allow those

2784
02:04:45,669 --> 02:04:44,880
freedoms to allow a parent to kill a

2785
02:04:49,430 --> 02:04:45,679
child

2786
02:04:52,310 --> 02:04:49,440
for example which

2787
02:04:54,310 --> 02:04:52,320
that comes up in the cases where for

2788
02:04:55,350 --> 02:04:54,320
example they're refusing a medical

2789
02:04:58,470 --> 02:04:55,360
procedure

2790
02:05:02,470 --> 02:04:58,480
for religious grounds

2791
02:05:03,430 --> 02:05:02,480
and the united states canada as far as i

2792
02:05:06,870 --> 02:05:03,440
know

2793
02:05:08,790 --> 02:05:06,880
uh europe they say no at a certain

2794
02:05:09,910 --> 02:05:08,800
point the state will intervene and they

2795
02:05:13,990 --> 02:05:09,920
will try to

2796
02:05:16,950 --> 02:05:14,000
say the kids get saved because

2797
02:05:17,830 --> 02:05:16,960
we we do protect children even if their

2798
02:05:20,390 --> 02:05:17,840
parents aren't

2799
02:05:23,669 --> 02:05:20,400
just like we take children away from

2800
02:05:29,109 --> 02:05:26,470
so what do you do with people who are

2801
02:05:32,790 --> 02:05:29,119
passionately convinced about something

2802
02:05:34,790 --> 02:05:32,800
that is demonstrably wrong

2803
02:05:36,069 --> 02:05:34,800
well when that demonstrably wrong thing

2804
02:05:40,069 --> 02:05:36,079
has constant

2805
02:05:43,109 --> 02:05:40,079
he if it's a religious matter

2806
02:05:45,189 --> 02:05:43,119
i say leave it alone people can have

2807
02:05:47,030 --> 02:05:45,199
different ideas about religion

2808
02:05:48,229 --> 02:05:47,040
they can each say well my god is right

2809
02:05:52,950 --> 02:05:48,239
and that other guy's

2810
02:06:00,069 --> 02:05:56,709
let him but when it comes to things like

2811
02:06:02,950 --> 02:06:00,079
not taking a vaccine um

2812
02:06:04,950 --> 02:06:02,960
you know there will be a period this

2813
02:06:07,109 --> 02:06:04,960
spring where people start

2814
02:06:09,589 --> 02:06:07,119
needing to go back to work and we'll

2815
02:06:12,950 --> 02:06:09,599
have enough people vaccinated

2816
02:06:14,390 --> 02:06:12,960
and i think it's very reasonable to say

2817
02:06:15,589 --> 02:06:14,400
you shouldn't go back to work if you're

2818
02:06:18,629 --> 02:06:15,599
not vaccinated

2819
02:06:22,149 --> 02:06:18,639
or have proof that you had

2820
02:06:25,910 --> 02:06:22,159
coveted um but

2821
02:06:27,830 --> 02:06:25,920
that'll cause a whole bunch of people to

2822
02:06:29,669 --> 02:06:27,840
get all worked up and say oh it's civil

2823
02:06:31,270 --> 02:06:29,679
liberties and we have to allow people

2824
02:06:37,510 --> 02:06:31,280
that

2825
02:06:40,870 --> 02:06:39,109
it's a very different issue than when it

2826
02:06:43,270 --> 02:06:40,880
affects others

2827
02:06:45,030 --> 02:06:43,280
let me restate the question a bit more

2828
02:06:46,629 --> 02:06:45,040
clearly some of the many of the audience

2829
02:06:48,229 --> 02:06:46,639
members almost all of them i think are

2830
02:06:49,430 --> 02:06:48,239
extremely extremely intelligent people

2831
02:06:50,790 --> 02:06:49,440
so for them

2832
02:06:53,030 --> 02:06:50,800
they're listening forget about covid

2833
02:06:54,470 --> 02:06:53,040
forget about covid like you mentioned

2834
02:06:56,709 --> 02:06:54,480
you're also extremely extremely

2835
02:06:58,470 --> 02:06:56,719
extremely bright and

2836
02:07:00,310 --> 02:06:58,480
probably if you didn't look into the

2837
02:07:02,390 --> 02:07:00,320
research on asteroids you would have

2838
02:07:03,910 --> 02:07:02,400
maybe you would have accepted what nasa

2839
02:07:07,030 --> 02:07:03,920
had said maybe you wouldn't have

2840
02:07:08,390 --> 02:07:07,040
regardless how do you sort out i was

2841
02:07:10,310 --> 02:07:08,400
going to say signal from the noise but

2842
02:07:13,189 --> 02:07:10,320
it's almost like signal from anti-signal

2843
02:07:13,510 --> 02:07:13,199
or from contrived signal when you do

2844
02:07:15,430 --> 02:07:13,520
like

2845
02:07:17,030 --> 02:07:15,440
what do you do as a as an intelligent

2846
02:07:17,430 --> 02:07:17,040
person do you just have to dive into the

2847
02:07:19,750 --> 02:07:17,440
field

2848
02:07:20,550 --> 02:07:19,760
do you just have to trust it because you

2849
02:07:22,149 --> 02:07:20,560
can't just doubt

2850
02:07:25,270 --> 02:07:22,159
everything you have to live your life

2851
02:07:32,069 --> 02:07:28,870
living in a society is something

2852
02:07:35,109 --> 02:07:32,079
that involves a lot of trust

2853
02:07:37,270 --> 02:07:35,119
right so it to live in a civil society

2854
02:07:39,189 --> 02:07:37,280
you have to have a certain degree of

2855
02:07:41,430 --> 02:07:39,199
trust that everyone else is going to

2856
02:07:44,950 --> 02:07:41,440
live up to their obligations

2857
02:07:46,709 --> 02:07:44,960
more or less and you know that if they

2858
02:07:49,030 --> 02:07:46,719
don't you have some recourse

2859
02:07:51,350 --> 02:07:49,040
you can call the police so you can

2860
02:07:55,109 --> 02:07:51,360
complain in some fashion

2861
02:07:59,189 --> 02:07:55,119
um but it yeah

2862
02:08:02,470 --> 02:07:59,199
you have to trust in the case of physics

2863
02:08:05,189 --> 02:08:02,480
you have to trust what

2864
02:08:07,189 --> 02:08:05,199
generations of physicists have produced

2865
02:08:09,109 --> 02:08:07,199
and that the scientific method and the

2866
02:08:10,069 --> 02:08:09,119
people looking at things and really

2867
02:08:13,189 --> 02:08:10,079
looking at things

2868
02:08:15,270 --> 02:08:13,199
and being critical of them including

2869
02:08:16,629 --> 02:08:15,280
publishing my papers things other stuff

2870
02:08:19,270 --> 02:08:16,639
is [\h__\h]

2871
02:08:20,550 --> 02:08:19,280
that that process will get us to the

2872
02:08:23,589 --> 02:08:20,560
right answer

2873
02:08:25,990 --> 02:08:23,599
most of the time and i think most of the

2874
02:08:29,350 --> 02:08:26,000
time it does

2875
02:08:32,470 --> 02:08:29,360
you know there certainly are examples

2876
02:08:36,069 --> 02:08:32,480
of uh fields or

2877
02:08:40,069 --> 02:08:36,079
particularly politicized fields

2878
02:08:43,270 --> 02:08:40,079
that i think it is much more difficult

2879
02:08:46,870 --> 02:08:43,280
you know certainly global warming

2880
02:08:50,629 --> 02:08:46,880
has gotten that way it is a politicized

2881
02:08:53,990 --> 02:08:50,639
field in that lots of politicians

2882
02:08:57,430 --> 02:08:54,000
or people on the street will have

2883
02:08:58,629 --> 02:08:57,440
very strong opinions that have nothing

2884
02:09:03,350 --> 02:08:58,639
to do with actual

2885
02:09:05,189 --> 02:09:03,360
science they will have to do with

2886
02:09:08,310 --> 02:09:05,199
you know the consequences on that on

2887
02:09:11,510 --> 02:09:08,320
their industry or

2888
02:09:16,870 --> 02:09:11,520
their ideology or some other set

2889
02:09:18,870 --> 02:09:16,880
of stuff that makes it more difficult

2890
02:09:20,870 --> 02:09:18,880
you find the same thing is true with

2891
02:09:27,430 --> 02:09:20,880
nutrition

2892
02:09:30,470 --> 02:09:27,440
uh has unfortunately

2893
02:09:34,149 --> 02:09:30,480
failed us broadly

2894
02:09:35,510 --> 02:09:34,159
you know it went on a jihad against fat

2895
02:09:37,430 --> 02:09:35,520
we should get rid of fat which

2896
02:09:40,229 --> 02:09:37,440
everything be low fat

2897
02:09:41,830 --> 02:09:40,239
and during the decades that we went on

2898
02:09:45,030 --> 02:09:41,840
the low fat

2899
02:09:47,589 --> 02:09:45,040
uh approach yeah the

2900
02:09:49,270 --> 02:09:47,599
obesity rate has gone up the rate of

2901
02:09:52,229 --> 02:09:49,280
ingestion of

2902
02:09:53,910 --> 02:09:52,239
uh i mean all the bad things they said

2903
02:09:57,189 --> 02:09:53,920
would go down have gone up

2904
02:10:00,390 --> 02:09:57,199
right right and in that case it's

2905
02:10:03,589 --> 02:10:00,400
probably based on

2906
02:10:09,350 --> 02:10:03,599
just some fundamental bad work

2907
02:10:12,790 --> 02:10:09,360
in the 1950s and 60s that got propagated

2908
02:10:17,109 --> 02:10:12,800
um and the fact that

2909
02:10:21,270 --> 02:10:17,119
there are people who make their money

2910
02:10:24,550 --> 02:10:21,280
either as you know commercial food

2911
02:10:25,109 --> 02:10:24,560
sellers or sellers of junk foods and so

2912
02:10:27,990 --> 02:10:25,119
forth

2913
02:10:29,430 --> 02:10:28,000
or people who are health food advocates

2914
02:10:32,550 --> 02:10:29,440
on the other side

2915
02:10:36,470 --> 02:10:32,560
helps to politicize with a small pee

2916
02:10:40,870 --> 02:10:36,480
this issue right so we have this huge

2917
02:10:44,229 --> 02:10:40,880
movement uh against gluten

2918
02:10:47,589 --> 02:10:44,239
and there is no good science

2919
02:10:50,149 --> 02:10:47,599
in support of it there are

2920
02:10:51,430 --> 02:10:50,159
people who shouldn't eat gluten because

2921
02:10:55,189 --> 02:10:51,440
they have

2922
02:10:59,270 --> 02:10:55,199
a very sp specific thing but

2923
02:11:03,189 --> 02:10:59,280
the overwhelming majority don't well

2924
02:11:06,910 --> 02:11:03,199
well the the trend has become oh

2925
02:11:11,430 --> 02:11:06,920
read a couple of websites and then

2926
02:11:14,629 --> 02:11:11,440
self-diagnose that you need this

2927
02:11:16,470 --> 02:11:14,639
and then uh eat a whole a diet

2928
02:11:18,069 --> 02:11:16,480
that has all kinds of other [\h__\h] in it

2929
02:11:21,510 --> 02:11:18,079
that is much less

2930
02:11:23,109 --> 02:11:21,520
tested than gluten one of the beautiful

2931
02:11:23,990 --> 02:11:23,119
aspects of your book modernist cuisine

2932
02:11:25,510 --> 02:11:24,000
when i first read it

2933
02:11:26,950 --> 02:11:25,520
and by the way i think i went to the u

2934
02:11:27,669 --> 02:11:26,960
of t library the first day that it

2935
02:11:29,109 --> 02:11:27,679
ordered it

2936
02:11:30,629 --> 02:11:29,119
because i was so excited to read it but

2937
02:11:31,750 --> 02:11:30,639
it was a huge book and i couldn't afford

2938
02:11:33,510 --> 02:11:31,760
it at the time

2939
02:11:35,589 --> 02:11:33,520
was in the first chapter i believe you

2940
02:11:37,669 --> 02:11:35,599
dispel some of the myths some

2941
02:11:39,589 --> 02:11:37,679
extremely ingrained myths so for example

2942
02:11:40,790 --> 02:11:39,599
with butter versus margarine and i

2943
02:11:41,750 --> 02:11:40,800
didn't know that at the time okay that

2944
02:11:43,109 --> 02:11:41,760
butter is much

2945
02:11:44,950 --> 02:11:43,119
healthier for you it seems to be

2946
02:11:45,830 --> 02:11:44,960
something that we all seem to take for

2947
02:11:48,550 --> 02:11:45,840
granted now but

2948
02:11:49,189 --> 02:11:48,560
for 50 years or so that wasn't the case

2949
02:11:51,030 --> 02:11:49,199
also

2950
02:11:53,750 --> 02:11:51,040
i think you mentioned that bacon has

2951
02:11:56,470 --> 02:11:53,760
olic acid is oleic acid or olic acid

2952
02:11:58,229 --> 02:11:56,480
compared to all much at a higher

2953
02:12:01,830 --> 02:11:58,239
percentage than all this one

2954
02:12:03,910 --> 02:12:01,840
thing where it got to be trendy for

2955
02:12:06,629 --> 02:12:03,920
people to say that

2956
02:12:08,390 --> 02:12:06,639
there were protective features in olive

2957
02:12:13,109 --> 02:12:08,400
oil

2958
02:12:15,709 --> 02:12:13,119
based on very skimpy amounts of studies

2959
02:12:17,350 --> 02:12:15,719
you know a huge problem with nutritional

2960
02:12:19,589 --> 02:12:17,360
epidemiology

2961
02:12:20,709 --> 02:12:19,599
is that it's extremely difficult and

2962
02:12:23,430 --> 02:12:20,719
expensive

2963
02:12:24,550 --> 02:12:23,440
to do the kind of study you need to do

2964
02:12:27,750 --> 02:12:24,560
where you study

2965
02:12:29,669 --> 02:12:27,760
people and outcomes over a 20 or 25 year

2966
02:12:33,109 --> 02:12:29,679
period

2967
02:12:37,030 --> 02:12:33,119
so instead people would fixate

2968
02:12:38,709 --> 02:12:37,040
on a proxy measurement so they said oh

2969
02:12:40,069 --> 02:12:38,719
cholesterol is bad for you

2970
02:12:41,910 --> 02:12:40,079
so we'll measure cholesterol if your

2971
02:12:44,069 --> 02:12:41,920
cholesterol goes up then we know that's

2972
02:12:45,830 --> 02:12:44,079
bad for you

2973
02:12:47,270 --> 02:12:45,840
well then it later turns out well

2974
02:12:49,109 --> 02:12:47,280
actually there's good cholesterol

2975
02:12:51,990 --> 02:12:49,119
there's bad cholesterol

2976
02:12:53,430 --> 02:12:52,000
and then it turns out oops dietary

2977
02:12:57,669 --> 02:12:53,440
cholesterol

2978
02:13:01,669 --> 02:12:59,589
um just for the people listening that

2979
02:13:03,109 --> 02:13:01,679
means you can ingest cholesterol such as

2980
02:13:04,550 --> 02:13:03,119
an eggs and it doesn't raise your blood

2981
02:13:08,709 --> 02:13:04,560
cholesterol

2982
02:13:11,669 --> 02:13:08,719
well in particular there are

2983
02:13:12,550 --> 02:13:11,679
the the kind of cholesterol that you

2984
02:13:16,229 --> 02:13:12,560
would worry about

2985
02:13:19,109 --> 02:13:16,239
in a cardiac situation is manufactured

2986
02:13:25,669 --> 02:13:22,149
and so the dietary thing isn't

2987
02:13:27,189 --> 02:13:25,679
really a factor i see i see now that is

2988
02:13:31,350 --> 02:13:27,199
such

2989
02:13:33,750 --> 02:13:31,360
and of course when these things came out

2990
02:13:35,030 --> 02:13:33,760
did people come and say oh you know

2991
02:13:39,270 --> 02:13:35,040
something

2992
02:13:42,709 --> 02:13:39,280
we were wrong we [\h__\h] up we were wrong

2993
02:13:45,430 --> 02:13:42,719
we're sorry nope

2994
02:13:47,030 --> 02:13:45,440
most of this so most people still think

2995
02:13:50,950 --> 02:13:47,040
cholesterol

2996
02:13:53,350 --> 02:13:50,960
counts thing they kind of know there's a

2997
02:13:57,430 --> 02:13:53,360
good and a bad kind now

2998
02:14:00,149 --> 02:13:57,440
but the butter thing you mentioned

2999
02:14:01,589 --> 02:14:00,159
in one of the few really long term

3000
02:14:02,709 --> 02:14:01,599
really good stuff something called the

3001
02:14:06,310 --> 02:14:02,719
nurses study

3002
02:14:09,030 --> 02:14:06,320
over 25 years they awarded that now

3003
02:14:10,310 --> 02:14:09,040
they followed the health of 25 000

3004
02:14:12,069 --> 02:14:10,320
nurses

3005
02:14:13,830 --> 02:14:12,079
they found that the people who ate

3006
02:14:16,870 --> 02:14:13,840
margarine

3007
02:14:17,669 --> 02:14:16,880
had double the cardiac uh problem rate

3008
02:14:22,069 --> 02:14:17,679
and death rate

3009
02:14:23,589 --> 02:14:22,079
of people who ate butter which means

3010
02:14:25,109 --> 02:14:23,599
there's a whole lot of health food

3011
02:14:28,229 --> 02:14:25,119
advocates

3012
02:14:30,550 --> 02:14:28,239
that killed people straight up

3013
02:14:32,229 --> 02:14:30,560
they went out there recommending

3014
02:14:35,430 --> 02:14:32,239
margarine

3015
02:14:39,910 --> 02:14:35,440
time

3016
02:14:42,709 --> 02:14:39,920
was was what we now call a trans fat

3017
02:14:43,910 --> 02:14:42,719
but they had it so in their heads that

3018
02:14:47,310 --> 02:14:43,920
um

3019
02:14:52,470 --> 02:14:47,320
saturated fats were bad and this was a

3020
02:14:58,069 --> 02:14:56,069
and that little surmise

3021
02:15:00,069 --> 02:14:58,079
was dead wrong in fact trans fats

3022
02:15:01,669 --> 02:15:00,079
actually are bad literally dead wrong

3023
02:15:04,470 --> 02:15:01,679
right literally dead wrong it literally

3024
02:15:09,030 --> 02:15:04,480
killed lots of people

3025
02:15:09,430 --> 02:15:09,040
um and so when you have situations like

3026
02:15:12,470 --> 02:15:09,440
that

3027
02:15:12,950 --> 02:15:12,480
or some of the other absurd things to

3028
02:15:15,030 --> 02:15:12,960
come

3029
02:15:19,589 --> 02:15:15,040
bring it back to gofet you know the

3030
02:15:19,599 --> 02:15:23,910
that was an absurd thing

3031
02:15:27,350 --> 02:15:26,069
telling people who have a fever to stay

3032
02:15:30,629 --> 02:15:27,360
inside

3033
02:15:32,149 --> 02:15:30,639
makes tons of sense yep

3034
02:15:33,990 --> 02:15:32,159
what's absurd about taking someone's

3035
02:15:34,550 --> 02:15:34,000
temperature as you enter a store let's

3036
02:15:37,189 --> 02:15:34,560
see

3037
02:15:37,750 --> 02:15:37,199
hood there's a set of things that you

3038
02:15:42,149 --> 02:15:37,760
often

3039
02:15:49,510 --> 02:15:45,990
uh this sort of situation that i call

3040
02:15:57,350 --> 02:15:53,430
so lots of religions

3041
02:16:00,950 --> 02:15:57,360
have a thing on purification

3042
02:16:03,910 --> 02:16:00,960
that stuff gets to be dirty

3043
02:16:06,950 --> 02:16:03,920
in god's eyes somehow and then you have

3044
02:16:11,510 --> 02:16:06,960
to purify it with a ritual

3045
02:16:13,910 --> 02:16:11,520
and there's a controversial theory by

3046
02:16:15,589 --> 02:16:13,920
an anthropologist named robert uh

3047
02:16:18,629 --> 02:16:15,599
sapolsky

3048
02:16:21,830 --> 02:16:18,639
that says the reason religions

3049
02:16:22,709 --> 02:16:21,840
all have purification rituals is that

3050
02:16:27,109 --> 02:16:22,719
eventually

3051
02:16:31,270 --> 02:16:27,119
they get a priest who has ocd

3052
02:16:34,669 --> 02:16:31,280
and that priest's ocd winds up

3053
02:16:38,150 --> 02:16:34,679
being manifest in them writing lots of

3054
02:16:39,429 --> 02:16:38,160
purification rituals now i don't know if

3055
02:16:42,070 --> 02:16:39,439
that's really true

3056
02:16:42,790 --> 02:16:42,080
right i'm going to be talking to robert

3057
02:16:44,389 --> 02:16:42,800
at some point

3058
02:16:48,790 --> 02:16:44,399
i don't i have some issues with that but

3059
02:16:55,750 --> 02:16:52,150
the idea that you would empower

3060
02:16:58,870 --> 02:16:55,760
the nation's waitresses and sales clerks

3061
02:17:00,870 --> 02:16:58,880
to all go and take your temperature

3062
02:17:03,349 --> 02:17:00,880
and oh what are you supposed to do if

3063
02:17:05,429 --> 02:17:03,359
the person has the fever

3064
02:17:07,030 --> 02:17:05,439
are you in a hazmat suit when you're

3065
02:17:10,469 --> 02:17:07,040
doing this

3066
02:17:17,270 --> 02:17:14,549
and it's well-meaning

3067
02:17:18,950 --> 02:17:17,280
but it's something that i think if you

3068
02:17:23,110 --> 02:17:18,960
looked at the amount of effort

3069
02:17:26,309 --> 02:17:23,120
that it caused versus

3070
02:17:29,589 --> 02:17:26,319
the uh the you know

3071
02:17:30,950 --> 02:17:29,599
the cost benefit basically how much

3072
02:17:31,429 --> 02:17:30,960
heart would it cause for how much

3073
02:17:33,270 --> 02:17:31,439
benefit

3074
02:17:34,549 --> 02:17:33,280
so like at our company i said [\h__\h]

3075
02:17:35,910 --> 02:17:34,559
we're not going to have some poor

3076
02:17:39,030 --> 02:17:35,920
employee

3077
02:17:41,830 --> 02:17:39,040
who has to go up and down a line and

3078
02:17:43,669 --> 02:17:41,840
do this and expose themselves they're

3079
02:17:47,509 --> 02:17:43,679
the ones that'll get it

3080
02:17:49,990 --> 02:17:47,519
yep why did we do that

3081
02:17:51,589 --> 02:17:50,000
yeah you know another thing is they said

3082
02:17:55,030 --> 02:17:51,599
oh you have to have everyone enter

3083
02:17:57,830 --> 02:17:55,040
in the same entrance so that you

3084
02:17:59,349 --> 02:17:57,840
can you know count them all and you can

3085
02:18:03,270 --> 02:17:59,359
know exactly how many people are in the

3086
02:18:09,349 --> 02:18:07,509
why well what if we have to contact

3087
02:18:13,190 --> 02:18:09,359
trace

3088
02:18:16,309 --> 02:18:13,200
and i said well we'll ask the people

3089
02:18:16,709 --> 02:18:16,319
i mean it turns out at my company and i

3090
02:18:19,830 --> 02:18:16,719
think

3091
02:18:21,190 --> 02:18:19,840
almost every company you don't act every

3092
02:18:24,870 --> 02:18:21,200
minute of the day

3093
02:18:28,469 --> 02:18:24,880
like you can't trust the people there

3094
02:18:31,589 --> 02:18:28,479
to do even the simplest thing

3095
02:18:34,070 --> 02:18:31,599
um you know if in fact they came into

3096
02:18:36,150 --> 02:18:34,080
the office on a particular day

3097
02:18:38,070 --> 02:18:36,160
well you'd know that regardless of which

3098
02:18:41,270 --> 02:18:38,080
entrance they came into because the

3099
02:18:42,629 --> 02:18:41,280
card key system does it so you can all

3100
02:18:45,110 --> 02:18:42,639
you can email everyone who's in the

3101
02:18:46,790 --> 02:18:45,120
building so if there was a contagion

3102
02:18:47,509 --> 02:18:46,800
event you would email them then you can

3103
02:18:50,070 --> 02:18:47,519
ask them

3104
02:18:51,429 --> 02:18:50,080
hey were you near george that day

3105
02:18:53,910 --> 02:18:51,439
because it turns out george came down

3106
02:18:57,190 --> 02:18:53,920
with coven

3107
02:18:58,950 --> 02:18:57,200
but there's always this oh let's lock

3108
02:19:02,389 --> 02:18:58,960
everything down

3109
02:19:08,870 --> 02:19:05,990
it would be a difficult calculation

3110
02:19:11,830 --> 02:19:08,880
to do but if you said okay what is

3111
02:19:14,950 --> 02:19:13,910
picking some set of people to be the

3112
02:19:19,270 --> 02:19:14,960
poor

3113
02:19:26,549 --> 02:19:22,389
with the temperature gun and

3114
02:19:29,110 --> 02:19:26,559
how many people did you really turn away

3115
02:19:30,150 --> 02:19:29,120
and therefore if you know how many you

3116
02:19:31,830 --> 02:19:30,160
turned away

3117
02:19:34,469 --> 02:19:31,840
what what did this really do for the

3118
02:19:37,669 --> 02:19:34,479
epidemic overall

3119
02:19:41,190 --> 02:19:37,679
now in a perfect world i don't doubt you

3120
02:19:44,469 --> 02:19:41,200
should stop those people from coming in

3121
02:19:47,589 --> 02:19:44,479
and in japan

3122
02:19:49,110 --> 02:19:47,599
when you go into customs man you're they

3123
02:19:51,910 --> 02:19:49,120
have all of these signs

3124
02:19:54,070 --> 02:19:51,920
and monitors up and it's zeroing in and

3125
02:19:56,230 --> 02:19:54,080
automatically taking your temperature

3126
02:19:57,750 --> 02:19:56,240
for everybody in the room and okay that

3127
02:19:59,830 --> 02:19:57,760
makes some sense

3128
02:20:01,429 --> 02:19:59,840
if you found somebody came coming in

3129
02:20:05,110 --> 02:20:01,439
with a horrible

3130
02:20:07,349 --> 02:20:05,120
fever you could then decide

3131
02:20:08,389 --> 02:20:07,359
to do something quarantine them for a

3132
02:20:10,710 --> 02:20:08,399
little bit

3133
02:20:12,070 --> 02:20:10,720
but of course what you can do with all

3134
02:20:13,030 --> 02:20:12,080
the people that happen to be standing

3135
02:20:15,910 --> 02:20:13,040
next to them

3136
02:20:17,030 --> 02:20:15,920
or run the flight with them or whatever

3137
02:20:19,190 --> 02:20:17,040
even then

3138
02:20:21,190 --> 02:20:19,200
it i don't think the japanese have fully

3139
02:20:24,309 --> 02:20:21,200
thought it through

3140
02:20:29,750 --> 02:20:24,319
because if that person really is

3141
02:20:32,550 --> 02:20:29,760
the um start of a terrible epidemic

3142
02:20:33,510 --> 02:20:32,560
because whenever you detected the fever

3143
02:20:37,110 --> 02:20:33,520
you'd have to like

3144
02:20:40,230 --> 02:20:37,120
stop the everything

3145
02:20:42,870 --> 02:20:40,240
you know have you know little tubes come

3146
02:20:46,150 --> 02:20:42,880
down from the ceiling and seal everyone

3147
02:20:48,150 --> 02:20:46,160
off separately it it would be really

3148
02:20:49,670 --> 02:20:48,160
very difficult

3149
02:20:51,110 --> 02:20:49,680
when i first heard about you i remember

3150
02:20:52,309 --> 02:20:51,120
you were talking about as could have

3151
02:20:53,670 --> 02:20:52,319
been a freakonomics you were talking

3152
02:20:55,750 --> 02:20:53,680
about a way of solving

3153
02:20:57,110 --> 02:20:55,760
global warming with geoengineering and i

3154
02:20:58,630 --> 02:20:57,120
remember being intrigued because you

3155
02:21:00,309 --> 02:20:58,640
said it requires something like a few

3156
02:21:01,990 --> 02:21:00,319
million dollars or maybe a few billion

3157
02:21:03,670 --> 02:21:02,000
but that's still relatively low

3158
02:21:05,750 --> 02:21:03,680
and you raise some balloons and you have

3159
02:21:06,469 --> 02:21:05,760
a tube that emits sulfur dioxide i

3160
02:21:09,830 --> 02:21:06,479
believe

3161
02:21:13,190 --> 02:21:09,840
okay that sounds like a an extremely

3162
02:21:16,510 --> 02:21:13,200
inventive and simple idea why

3163
02:21:19,190 --> 02:21:16,520
don't i hear much talk about

3164
02:21:21,429 --> 02:21:19,200
geoengineering solutions to the problem

3165
02:21:22,790 --> 02:21:21,439
of global warming

3166
02:21:25,349 --> 02:21:22,800
what are the problems with them in

3167
02:21:28,950 --> 02:21:27,030
oh let me explain where i'm coming from

3168
02:21:29,510 --> 02:21:28,960
because i see that we should get to zero

3169
02:21:32,230 --> 02:21:29,520
emissions

3170
02:21:33,590 --> 02:21:32,240
in carbon but then even if the carbon

3171
02:21:34,790 --> 02:21:33,600
that's in our atmosphere stays there

3172
02:21:36,630 --> 02:21:34,800
that's still going to cause a certain

3173
02:21:39,670 --> 02:21:36,640
amount of problems over time

3174
02:21:40,070 --> 02:21:39,680
which means that something else needs to

3175
02:21:44,630 --> 02:21:40,080
be done

3176
02:21:47,270 --> 02:21:44,640
anyway of course of course

3177
02:21:48,870 --> 02:21:47,280
it's is it political like what's going

3178
02:21:50,790 --> 02:21:48,880
on yes it's political

3179
02:21:52,309 --> 02:21:50,800
it's well first of all it's political

3180
02:21:54,070 --> 02:21:52,319
within the scientific community the

3181
02:21:58,389 --> 02:21:54,080
scientific community itself

3182
02:22:03,190 --> 02:21:58,399
has become very polarized

3183
02:22:07,590 --> 02:22:03,200
that the people who study global warming

3184
02:22:09,670 --> 02:22:07,600
uh got very

3185
02:22:10,790 --> 02:22:09,680
tight they kept saying oh this is a

3186
02:22:13,750 --> 02:22:10,800
problem

3187
02:22:14,389 --> 02:22:13,760
why look here thinking wow here's the

3188
02:22:17,110 --> 02:22:14,399
thing

3189
02:22:21,429 --> 02:22:17,120
if i show you this evidence society will

3190
02:22:24,630 --> 02:22:23,670
and no matter what they showed society

3191
02:22:28,630 --> 02:22:24,640
didn't

3192
02:22:32,150 --> 02:22:28,640
listen to them well that's caused

3193
02:22:38,710 --> 02:22:35,510
there are lots of scientists in

3194
02:22:41,030 --> 02:22:38,720
the field who are very leery

3195
02:22:43,190 --> 02:22:41,040
about publishing anything or doing any

3196
02:22:46,790 --> 02:22:43,200
research on global warming

3197
02:22:49,990 --> 02:22:46,800
because their fear their their

3198
02:22:54,150 --> 02:22:50,000
friends will chastise it as being some

3199
02:22:55,910 --> 02:22:54,160
form of accommodation to the other side

3200
02:22:57,510 --> 02:22:55,920
okay and what do you say other side

3201
02:23:00,389 --> 02:22:57,520
stupid what do you think

3202
02:23:00,870 --> 02:23:00,399
is stupid and it's counterproductive

3203
02:23:04,790 --> 02:23:00,880
well

3204
02:23:08,070 --> 02:23:04,800
then there's the there's a lot of

3205
02:23:11,510 --> 02:23:08,080
global warming activists or climate

3206
02:23:15,349 --> 02:23:13,910
and they think that the global warming

3207
02:23:18,790 --> 02:23:15,359
problem is very much

3208
02:23:21,830 --> 02:23:18,800
like a children's book that i read as

3209
02:23:23,990 --> 02:23:21,840
a as a little kid it's called the little

3210
02:23:25,910 --> 02:23:24,000
engine that could

3211
02:23:27,910 --> 02:23:25,920
there's not this little end a little

3212
02:23:30,950 --> 02:23:27,920
steam engine

3213
02:23:32,790 --> 02:23:30,960
and it needs to take this

3214
02:23:35,030 --> 02:23:32,800
stuff over the mountain and all the big

3215
02:23:37,990 --> 02:23:35,040
engines are scared to do it

3216
02:23:39,910 --> 02:23:38,000
and the little engine says i'll try and

3217
02:23:41,990 --> 02:23:39,920
then it says i think i can i think i can

3218
02:23:45,990 --> 02:23:42,000
i think i can

3219
02:23:49,349 --> 02:23:46,000
well a lot of people in the

3220
02:23:52,230 --> 02:23:49,359
uh global warming world

3221
02:23:54,710 --> 02:23:52,240
are like that they think look we know

3222
02:23:58,070 --> 02:23:54,720
exactly what to do

3223
02:24:01,510 --> 02:23:58,080
we have the technology it's easy

3224
02:24:04,389 --> 02:24:01,520
we're just a bunch of

3225
02:24:06,150 --> 02:24:04,399
you know fat [\h__\h] that are addicted to

3226
02:24:09,590 --> 02:24:06,160
our suvs

3227
02:24:11,270 --> 02:24:09,600
and is as soon as we just all do the

3228
02:24:17,750 --> 02:24:11,280
right thing

3229
02:24:21,590 --> 02:24:20,469
and and then if you come up with global

3230
02:24:25,270 --> 02:24:21,600
warming

3231
02:24:28,469 --> 02:24:25,280
then those very people will then

3232
02:24:30,550 --> 02:24:28,479
say you shut up

3233
02:24:32,870 --> 02:24:30,560
we're trying to convince society we're

3234
02:24:34,790 --> 02:24:32,880
probably we're trying to tell society

3235
02:24:36,950 --> 02:24:34,800
i think we can i think we can we'll try

3236
02:24:38,469 --> 02:24:36,960
to be positive here

3237
02:24:40,150 --> 02:24:38,479
and the minute you say you have a

3238
02:24:43,830 --> 02:24:40,160
different solution

3239
02:24:45,670 --> 02:24:43,840
it lets the air out of the balloon

3240
02:24:47,830 --> 02:24:45,680
we need to threaten these people that

3241
02:24:51,510 --> 02:24:47,840
there's no other way to save earth

3242
02:24:55,030 --> 02:24:51,520
otherwise they won't listen to us mm-hmm

3243
02:24:57,750 --> 02:24:55,040
so i say in response i say

3244
02:25:00,950 --> 02:24:57,760
okay show me how much progress we've

3245
02:25:07,910 --> 02:25:04,710
well we have made any progress

3246
02:25:09,110 --> 02:25:07,920
well okay suppose we did the full paris

3247
02:25:12,870 --> 02:25:09,120
accord

3248
02:25:14,389 --> 02:25:12,880
well everyone knows that is [\h__\h]

3249
02:25:16,469 --> 02:25:14,399
and of course then i did the

3250
02:25:19,910 --> 02:25:16,479
calculations for myself

3251
02:25:22,790 --> 02:25:19,920
if there was no

3252
02:25:23,990 --> 02:25:22,800
more emission tomorrow we stopped it

3253
02:25:27,830 --> 02:25:24,000
which there's no way we can do

3254
02:25:31,110 --> 02:25:27,840
it right right right but the temperature

3255
02:25:34,710 --> 02:25:31,120
would continue to rise for about

3256
02:25:42,070 --> 02:25:38,309
then it would start to slowly decrease

3257
02:25:44,389 --> 02:25:42,080
individual model in 145

3258
02:25:47,349 --> 02:25:44,399
years the temperature would be less than

3259
02:25:53,349 --> 02:25:50,950
so now i ask you is the is global

3260
02:25:56,389 --> 02:25:53,359
warming

3261
02:25:59,750 --> 02:25:56,399
a serious problem or not

3262
02:26:04,230 --> 02:25:59,760
and it's very funny to me because

3263
02:26:08,070 --> 02:26:04,240
if you if you talk to people who deny

3264
02:26:09,750 --> 02:26:08,080
the existence of global warming

3265
02:26:12,469 --> 02:26:09,760
there's a set of people that say listen

3266
02:26:14,870 --> 02:26:12,479
to the science

3267
02:26:16,710 --> 02:26:14,880
but then if you say okay tell me a

3268
02:26:20,150 --> 02:26:16,720
credible plan

3269
02:26:23,190 --> 02:26:20,160
for actually getting to zero emissions

3270
02:26:26,550 --> 02:26:23,200
and not having a disaster

3271
02:26:29,830 --> 02:26:26,560
according to you well

3272
02:26:33,030 --> 02:26:29,840
they can't but they also don't want you

3273
02:26:33,590 --> 02:26:33,040
to let that cat out of the bag hey shut

3274
02:26:37,910 --> 02:26:33,600
up

3275
02:26:39,750 --> 02:26:37,920
we'll get we'll get some level of

3276
02:26:41,670 --> 02:26:39,760
compliance now and then we'll we'll get

3277
02:26:45,110 --> 02:26:41,680
a little more in the future

3278
02:26:46,630 --> 02:26:45,120
and if we like told people the truth the

3279
02:26:49,030 --> 02:26:46,640
the ones that are honest will say if we

3280
02:26:53,030 --> 02:26:49,040
told people the truth

3281
02:26:56,469 --> 02:26:53,040
they would be too um afraid

3282
02:26:56,950 --> 02:26:56,479
well that's [\h__\h] and lying to people

3283
02:26:58,950 --> 02:26:56,960
just

3284
02:27:00,830 --> 02:26:58,960
doesn't help the situation that's why no

3285
02:27:03,429 --> 02:27:00,840
one has believed this

3286
02:27:05,110 --> 02:27:03,439
right so

3287
02:27:07,830 --> 02:27:05,120
anyway so to those people i say we'll

3288
02:27:09,349 --> 02:27:07,840
listen to the science

3289
02:27:11,110 --> 02:27:09,359
because the science is actually very

3290
02:27:14,550 --> 02:27:11,120
very clear

3291
02:27:17,110 --> 02:27:14,560
that we don't have any natural way

3292
02:27:18,870 --> 02:27:17,120
to take co2 out of the atmosphere

3293
02:27:21,750 --> 02:27:18,880
quickly

3294
02:27:23,590 --> 02:27:21,760
and the science is very clear that at

3295
02:27:26,070 --> 02:27:23,600
any point in time

3296
02:27:30,070 --> 02:27:26,080
we have another 100 years of warming

3297
02:27:32,710 --> 02:27:30,080
that's already baked in the cake

3298
02:27:33,510 --> 02:27:32,720
so if you think that 100 years of

3299
02:27:35,349 --> 02:27:33,520
warming

3300
02:27:36,790 --> 02:27:35,359
and sorry that 100 years how much of an

3301
02:27:38,950 --> 02:27:36,800
increment is it

3302
02:27:40,550 --> 02:27:38,960
a couple degrees and that's

3303
02:27:42,230 --> 02:27:40,560
significantly for sure because different

3304
02:27:46,550 --> 02:27:42,240
models will say different things but

3305
02:27:47,030 --> 02:27:46,560
okay it you'll get people to say we

3306
02:27:49,590 --> 02:27:47,040
can't

3307
02:27:50,710 --> 02:27:49,600
possibly allow another one more degrees

3308
02:27:52,469 --> 02:27:50,720
c

3309
02:27:53,990 --> 02:27:52,479
mm-hmm but it's going to happen

3310
02:27:54,950 --> 02:27:54,000
regardless that's three degrees c no

3311
02:27:57,270 --> 02:27:54,960
matter what

3312
02:27:58,550 --> 02:27:57,280
yes yes yes number one number two if you

3313
02:28:01,750 --> 02:27:58,560
think

3314
02:28:05,030 --> 02:28:01,760
it's bad if your proposition

3315
02:28:08,469 --> 02:28:05,040
is that three degrees c will

3316
02:28:10,230 --> 02:28:08,479
you know unleash hell on earth well

3317
02:28:11,990 --> 02:28:10,240
let's start working on it because it's

3318
02:28:15,190 --> 02:28:12,000
common no matter what

3319
02:28:16,870 --> 02:28:15,200
we do okay so this seems to me like

3320
02:28:18,150 --> 02:28:16,880
people who are on the side that say well

3321
02:28:19,510 --> 02:28:18,160
let's just get to zero emissions and

3322
02:28:19,990 --> 02:28:19,520
that should solve it that they don't

3323
02:28:21,429 --> 02:28:20,000
actually

3324
02:28:22,630 --> 02:28:21,439
care about the saving of the earth

3325
02:28:24,150 --> 02:28:22,640
because if they did they would pursue

3326
02:28:24,630 --> 02:28:24,160
some of the geoengineering solutions as

3327
02:28:26,150 --> 02:28:24,640
well

3328
02:28:27,670 --> 02:28:26,160
so what is it that they care about do

3329
02:28:29,349 --> 02:28:27,680
they just dislike capitalism they

3330
02:28:32,469 --> 02:28:29,359
dislike the fact that we in the west

3331
02:28:33,830 --> 02:28:32,479
okay there's definitely people like that

3332
02:28:36,469 --> 02:28:33,840
and then there's definitely people who

3333
02:28:39,190 --> 02:28:36,479
are not like that you know when

3334
02:28:43,110 --> 02:28:39,200
you to people who are true

3335
02:28:44,469 --> 02:28:43,120
environmentalists or conservationists

3336
02:28:47,349 --> 02:28:44,479
they'll say what you mean we can

3337
02:28:53,510 --> 02:28:47,359
actually avoid destroying earth

3338
02:28:56,870 --> 02:28:55,750
the people who are the ones that are

3339
02:28:58,630 --> 02:28:56,880
most against it

3340
02:29:01,429 --> 02:28:58,640
i think are the ones that view this

3341
02:29:04,469 --> 02:29:01,439
mostly as a political struggle

3342
02:29:07,510 --> 02:29:04,479
and as something of a struggle

3343
02:29:09,429 --> 02:29:07,520
of capitalism versus

3344
02:29:10,630 --> 02:29:09,439
something they don't really propose an

3345
02:29:13,910 --> 02:29:10,640
alternative right

3346
02:29:17,270 --> 02:29:13,920
right but uh for those people

3347
02:29:18,150 --> 02:29:17,280
they would say hey you capitalist greedy

3348
02:29:21,429 --> 02:29:18,160
bastards

3349
02:29:25,910 --> 02:29:21,439
sinned against the environment this is

3350
02:29:28,070 --> 02:29:25,920
your fire and brimstone just cause

3351
02:29:30,230 --> 02:29:28,080
and don't go telling people you can make

3352
02:29:33,349 --> 02:29:30,240
it better

3353
02:29:35,270 --> 02:29:33,359
inventions

3354
02:29:36,710 --> 02:29:35,280
but then i say look if are you saying

3355
02:29:37,110 --> 02:29:36,720
it's going to destroy the environment

3356
02:29:40,309 --> 02:29:37,120
well

3357
02:29:43,270 --> 02:29:40,319
why don't we try not to destroy it

3358
02:29:44,950 --> 02:29:43,280
but he's near that oh it's going to kill

3359
02:29:47,349 --> 02:29:44,960
millions of people how about this let's

3360
02:29:50,550 --> 02:29:47,359
try not to kill millions of people

3361
02:29:53,429 --> 02:29:50,560
why is that not a good idea

3362
02:29:56,469 --> 02:29:53,439
we don't know how bad global warming

3363
02:29:59,750 --> 02:29:59,110
we have a bunch of models the models

3364
02:30:01,190 --> 02:29:59,760
predict

3365
02:30:03,990 --> 02:30:01,200
different amounts of temperature

3366
02:30:07,990 --> 02:30:04,000
increase in different time scales

3367
02:30:10,870 --> 02:30:08,000
at some point it'll be very bad

3368
02:30:13,030 --> 02:30:10,880
we don't know exactly which point and we

3369
02:30:16,630 --> 02:30:13,040
also don't know exactly which

3370
02:30:21,270 --> 02:30:18,630
so if people say i don't want to start

3371
02:30:23,349 --> 02:30:21,280
doing geoengineering today

3372
02:30:24,550 --> 02:30:23,359
i say fine don't start it today but

3373
02:30:28,469 --> 02:30:24,560
let's research

3374
02:30:29,830 --> 02:30:28,479
the hell out of it nathan what in your

3375
02:30:33,270 --> 02:30:29,840
eyes are the most efficacious

3376
02:30:36,150 --> 02:30:33,280
geoengineering prospects

3377
02:30:36,870 --> 02:30:36,160
well currently the one i like best is

3378
02:30:39,270 --> 02:30:36,880
something that

3379
02:30:41,670 --> 02:30:39,280
that goes on the rubric of solar

3380
02:30:43,910 --> 02:30:41,680
radiation management this means

3381
02:30:44,950 --> 02:30:43,920
you reflect a tiny amount of light from

3382
02:30:48,870 --> 02:30:44,960
the sun

3383
02:30:51,510 --> 02:30:48,880
way in the upper atmosphere um way less

3384
02:30:52,630 --> 02:30:51,520
light than i mean you could never

3385
02:30:55,429 --> 02:30:52,640
visually determine

3386
02:30:56,630 --> 02:30:55,439
exactly exactly it's imperceptible but

3387
02:30:58,790 --> 02:30:56,640
it would be enough

3388
02:31:01,429 --> 02:30:58,800
to stop global warming and it would be

3389
02:31:03,670 --> 02:31:01,439
with sulfur dioxide or some other method

3390
02:31:04,870 --> 02:31:03,680
well then you can get in then you go

3391
02:31:06,469 --> 02:31:04,880
down into the weeds

3392
02:31:07,990 --> 02:31:06,479
of a hundred different engineering

3393
02:31:09,990 --> 02:31:08,000
trade-offs

3394
02:31:12,070 --> 02:31:10,000
and people should study all those

3395
02:31:15,349 --> 02:31:12,080
different trade-offs

3396
02:31:18,469 --> 02:31:15,359
um sulfur dioxide has the

3397
02:31:20,630 --> 02:31:18,479
advantage that we know it works because

3398
02:31:23,429 --> 02:31:20,640
volcanoes do it

3399
02:31:24,870 --> 02:31:23,439
and we know that although sulfur dioxide

3400
02:31:27,990 --> 02:31:24,880
is not something we want

3401
02:31:30,150 --> 02:31:28,000
enormous amounts of in our world

3402
02:31:31,750 --> 02:31:30,160
we know that we're tolerant the

3403
02:31:35,030 --> 02:31:31,760
environment is currently tolerant of

3404
02:31:37,590 --> 02:31:35,040
quite a bit that comes from volcanoes

3405
02:31:39,830 --> 02:31:37,600
and the extra amount we would need is a

3406
02:31:43,190 --> 02:31:39,840
very small fraction above

3407
02:31:45,910 --> 02:31:43,200
what's coming from volcanoes so

3408
02:31:48,230 --> 02:31:45,920
there's a plausible argument that it's

3409
02:31:50,950 --> 02:31:48,240
the safest

3410
02:31:51,590 --> 02:31:50,960
there's lots of people who immediately

3411
02:31:53,910 --> 02:31:51,600
try as

3412
02:31:54,950 --> 02:31:53,920
hard as they can to see a problem with

3413
02:31:59,110 --> 02:31:54,960
that

3414
02:32:00,550 --> 02:31:59,120
and hey fair enough they they should

3415
02:32:02,389 --> 02:32:00,560
do that research and publish those

3416
02:32:03,830 --> 02:32:02,399
papers but other people should also be

3417
02:32:07,030 --> 02:32:03,840
saying let's try to figure out how to

3418
02:32:10,870 --> 02:32:09,110
because current course and speed we're

3419
02:32:15,030 --> 02:32:10,880
not doing [\h__\h]

3420
02:32:18,630 --> 02:32:16,870
nathan thank you so much for being

3421
02:32:20,469 --> 02:32:18,640
extremely generous with your time

3422
02:32:22,469 --> 02:32:20,479
please hopefully you recover from your

3423
02:32:24,150 --> 02:32:22,479
your kovid i wrote down that

3424
02:32:25,670 --> 02:32:24,160
other they're classically trained chefs

3425
02:32:27,670 --> 02:32:25,680
like gordon ramsay and someone i watch

3426
02:32:28,710 --> 02:32:27,680
plenty of his shows and he says that the

3427
02:32:31,670 --> 02:32:28,720
most important

3428
02:32:32,630 --> 02:32:31,680
aspect of any recipe is the ingredients

3429
02:32:34,550 --> 02:32:32,640
being fresh

3430
02:32:36,230 --> 02:32:34,560
i always wondered is that true or is

3431
02:32:38,230 --> 02:32:36,240
there something else like can you take

3432
02:32:40,309 --> 02:32:38,240
unfresh ingredients from walmart let's

3433
02:32:41,830 --> 02:32:40,319
say and create a wonderful meal

3434
02:32:44,790 --> 02:32:41,840
with some of your technologies tell me

3435
02:32:46,950 --> 02:32:44,800
your position on cheese

3436
02:32:49,429 --> 02:32:46,960
exactly yeah right cheese is very old

3437
02:32:53,670 --> 02:32:52,389
wine well that's kind of old spoiled

3438
02:32:56,870 --> 02:32:53,680
grape

3439
02:33:00,309 --> 02:32:56,880
um you know aged beef

3440
02:33:04,830 --> 02:33:00,319
uh so i agree

3441
02:33:07,510 --> 02:33:04,840
with uh him that you want high quality

3442
02:33:11,190 --> 02:33:07,520
ingredients high quality does not

3443
02:33:16,309 --> 02:33:11,200
mean necessarily mean that

3444
02:33:19,110 --> 02:33:16,319
it's all got to be absolutely fresh

3445
02:33:20,630 --> 02:33:19,120
there's enormous numbers of dishes made

3446
02:33:26,309 --> 02:33:20,640
with dried

3447
02:33:29,110 --> 02:33:26,319
pulses or beans or lentils or grains

3448
02:33:31,510 --> 02:33:29,120
and that stuff is dried and it doesn't

3449
02:33:34,870 --> 02:33:31,520
have to be fresh

3450
02:33:36,790 --> 02:33:34,880
so there are some foods where

3451
02:33:40,950 --> 02:33:36,800
the freshness of the ingredients is

3452
02:33:45,510 --> 02:33:44,469
there's other foods where aging the

3453
02:33:49,190 --> 02:33:45,520
ingredient

3454
02:33:51,910 --> 02:33:49,200
is absolutely paramount and most things

3455
02:33:55,910 --> 02:33:51,920
are somewhere in the middle

3456
02:33:58,870 --> 02:33:55,920
and it it's also

3457
02:34:00,309 --> 02:33:58,880
you know the a chef who is cooking for

3458
02:34:04,070 --> 02:34:00,319
other people

3459
02:34:07,349 --> 02:34:04,080
ought to do the best they can

3460
02:34:10,630 --> 02:34:07,359
but not every little restaurant

3461
02:34:11,510 --> 02:34:10,640
in the middle of the country can get

3462
02:34:15,590 --> 02:34:11,520
access

3463
02:34:18,309 --> 02:34:15,600
to diver caught scallops

3464
02:34:18,950 --> 02:34:18,319
and so then you have this dilemma does

3465
02:34:20,950 --> 02:34:18,960
that mean you

3466
02:34:22,710 --> 02:34:20,960
never serve scallops and some people

3467
02:34:25,670 --> 02:34:22,720
would say yes there was a scallops and

3468
02:34:27,110 --> 02:34:25,680
good for them but i think it's a little

3469
02:34:29,030 --> 02:34:27,120
bit elitist

3470
02:34:30,710 --> 02:34:29,040
to say oh no you can never serve a

3471
02:34:33,910 --> 02:34:30,720
frozen

3472
02:34:36,389 --> 02:34:33,920
piece of fish because you know the

3473
02:34:40,389 --> 02:34:36,399
fact is the middle of continents have a

3474
02:34:43,750 --> 02:34:40,399
very hard time getting fresh ocean fish

3475
02:34:49,750 --> 02:34:43,760
they can get it sometimes a huge expense

3476
02:34:53,990 --> 02:34:52,469
thank you thank you so much you gotta go

3477
02:34:55,910 --> 02:34:54,000
i appreciate your time man

3478
02:34:57,270 --> 02:34:55,920
thank you you're one of my idols have a

3479
02:34:58,710 --> 02:34:57,280
great one no i mean that man

3480
02:34:59,750 --> 02:34:58,720
i want to even ask you like how are the

3481
02:35:00,790 --> 02:34:59,760
pyramids made because i feel like you

3482
02:35:02,870 --> 02:35:00,800
have an answer for everything

3483
02:35:03,910 --> 02:35:02,880
and apparently there's a mystery there i

3484
02:35:05,990 --> 02:35:03,920
know actually a friend of mine has

3485
02:35:08,469 --> 02:35:06,000
figured that out

3486
02:35:10,630 --> 02:35:08,479
okay geologist friend of mine has really

3487
02:35:12,070 --> 02:35:10,640
figured out how they built the pyramids

3488
02:35:13,670 --> 02:35:12,080
you you can just reference the name so i

3489
02:35:14,550 --> 02:35:13,680
can search it unless you want to explain

3490
02:35:17,590 --> 02:35:14,560
it i know you gotta go

3491
02:35:21,110 --> 02:35:17,600
it's in a bunch of nova uh uh

3492
02:35:24,150 --> 02:35:21,120
videos um i'll email you the stuff

3493
02:35:24,630 --> 02:35:24,160
what's his name though i'm blanking on

3494
02:35:27,510 --> 02:35:24,640
it

3495
02:35:29,190 --> 02:35:27,520
okay i'll post the name all right man

3496
02:35:30,550 --> 02:35:29,200
there were a panoply of questions that i

3497
02:35:31,190 --> 02:35:30,560
had written down that i didn't get a

3498
02:35:32,790 --> 02:35:31,200
chance to

3499
02:35:35,110 --> 02:35:32,800
bring up during the interview but i

3500
02:35:37,510 --> 02:35:35,120
emailed him so here are two extra

3501
02:35:39,670 --> 02:35:37,520
questions

3502
02:35:41,670 --> 02:35:39,680
one i wanted to know what is his opinion

3503
02:35:43,030 --> 02:35:41,680
on the latest news regarding ufos and

3504
02:35:45,190 --> 02:35:43,040
even bob lazar

3505
02:35:46,630 --> 02:35:45,200
who claims to have worked on spacecraft

3506
02:35:48,309 --> 02:35:46,640
he said

3507
02:35:49,750 --> 02:35:48,319
i think it's arrogant to believe we are

3508
02:35:50,550 --> 02:35:49,760
the only intelligent beings in the

3509
02:35:52,550 --> 02:35:50,560
universe

3510
02:35:54,309 --> 02:35:52,560
that said i don't think that the hard

3511
02:35:56,950 --> 02:35:54,319
evidence for ufos is currently

3512
02:35:59,270 --> 02:35:56,960
sufficient to say that ufos are in fact

3513
02:36:01,510 --> 02:35:59,280
aliens visiting the planet the u in the

3514
02:36:02,309 --> 02:36:01,520
ufos is unidentified and that remains

3515
02:36:04,710 --> 02:36:02,319
the case

3516
02:36:06,070 --> 02:36:04,720
i don't know about mr lazar's claims so

3517
02:36:07,670 --> 02:36:06,080
i can't comment

3518
02:36:09,750 --> 02:36:07,680
okay the other question i had was about

3519
02:36:11,990 --> 02:36:09,760
consciousness do you think consciousness

3520
02:36:13,670 --> 02:36:12,000
emerges from a physical basis that is a

3521
02:36:14,950 --> 02:36:13,680
physical substrate like the materialists

3522
02:36:17,830 --> 02:36:14,960
might say

3523
02:36:19,349 --> 02:36:17,840
or not and why in other words what's

3524
02:36:21,190 --> 02:36:19,359
your opinion on the hard problem of

3525
02:36:23,590 --> 02:36:21,200
consciousness

3526
02:36:25,030 --> 02:36:23,600
nathan says our brains are physical so

3527
02:36:27,030 --> 02:36:25,040
yes i think that consciousness

3528
02:36:28,469 --> 02:36:27,040
originates in a physical organ

3529
02:36:30,550 --> 02:36:28,479
i think that a lot of consciousness

3530
02:36:33,190 --> 02:36:30,560
discussion goes away with

3531
02:36:35,110 --> 02:36:33,200
an obsession on human exceptionalism

3532
02:36:37,670 --> 02:36:35,120
animal experiments to show that a

3533
02:36:39,510 --> 02:36:37,680
number of species have a concept of self

3534
02:36:40,309 --> 02:36:39,520
have mirror neurons which model what

3535
02:36:43,190 --> 02:36:40,319
others think

3536
02:36:45,110 --> 02:36:43,200
and so forth while these traits may not

3537
02:36:46,230 --> 02:36:45,120
rise to the level of full human

3538
02:36:48,830 --> 02:36:46,240
consciousness

3539
02:36:53,830 --> 02:36:48,840
i think it's likely that they are

3540
02:36:58,550 --> 02:36:56,550
okay i hope you enjoyed this podcast if

3541
02:36:59,030 --> 02:36:58,560
you enjoyed it please consider donating

3542
02:37:00,710 --> 02:36:59,040
to

3543
02:37:02,550 --> 02:37:00,720
the patreon supporting this channel

3544
02:37:03,510 --> 02:37:02,560
because right now i'm pretty much doing

3545
02:37:05,910 --> 02:37:03,520
it pro bono

3546
02:37:07,030 --> 02:37:05,920
it takes up almost all of my time and it

3547
02:37:08,710 --> 02:37:07,040
would be great if i could

3548
02:37:11,590 --> 02:37:08,720
somehow manage to keep up the level of